LocoAko Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Here's a really great graphic just tweeted out from Patrick Marsh (https://twitter.com/pmarshwx) "Max Wind Vs. Minimum Pressure for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones from 1851-2011 and how #Sandy compares: http://bit.ly/VGQmCW" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It looks like he's using pressures both over land and water for the various wind speeds, which is fine. It may also be including extratropical cyclones though. It would be interesting to see how it compares to tropical systems over water only. Here's a really great graphic just tweeted out from Patrick Marsh (https://twitter.com/pmarshwx) "Max Wind Vs. Minimum Pressure for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones from 1851-2011 and how #Sandy compares: http://bit.ly/VGQmCW" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I can see Katrina on the very bottom of that graphic...deepest Cat 3 on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Wow, Santiago got nailed almost perfectly. Pretty hawt. I'm surprised it's only 95 kt-- the IR imagery looks like a major: the eye is clear and it's pretty symmetrically surrounded by cold cloud tops. What a funny season-- that it would suck so bad and then end with this hawtness. Tornadotony-- you were right earlier, I was downplaying it too much. It was bombing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The 117 kt flight level winds at 700 mb suggest an intensity of between 100 and 105 kt. Wow, Santiago got nailed almost perfectly. Pretty hawt. I'm surprised it's only 95 kt-- the IR imagery looks like a major: the eye is clear and it's pretty symmetrically surrounded by cold cloud tops. What a funny season-- that it would suck so bad and then end with this hawtness. Tornadotony-- you were right earlier, I was downplaying it too much. It was bombing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Wow, Santiago got nailed almost perfectly. Pretty hawt. I'm surprised it's only 95 kt-- the IR imagery looks like a major: the eye is clear and it's pretty symmetrically surrounded by cold cloud tops. What a funny season-- that it would suck so bad and then end with this hawtness. Tornadotony-- you were right earlier, I was downplaying it too much. It was bombing out. Haha thanks. I understand what it is like trying to get info off of a phone. The symmetry of the storm on satellite was more impressive than Ernesto at the time and I could see that being hard to tell from a small screen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It is a major Josh. It's only been mentioned about three or four times already that the 115 MPH header was an error. 000 WTNT63 KNHC 250539 TCUAT3 HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012...CORRECTED 130 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012 CORRECTED WIND SPEED IN SUMAMRY ...SANDY MAKES LANDFALL JUST WEST OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA... SUMMARY OF 125 AM EDT...0525 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 75.9W ABOUT 5 MI...8 KM W OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 020 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It is a major Josh. Nope, got corrected down to 110. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It's only been mentioned about three or four times already that the 115 MPH header was an error. Alright my mistake. That said, the 117 kt FL winds and the recent presentation on IR would seem to argue against that somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think they're just getting a lot more restrictive about how they assign intensity these days. That presentation, that pressure, and those recon obs (thanks, jconsor) would have scored an easy Cat-3 designation in the past. Even with Isaac, we saw the NHC really go conservative on intensity and upgrade the system to a 'cane only when they had really, really solid evidence over a continuous period. This is not a bad thing-- I think the quest for truth and accuracy is awesome. I just wonder if the historic storms-- even the reanalyzed ones-- are estimated too high in comparison with these new, more-stringent classification requirements. Sorry to go OT. Cool system, hawt landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 15 min past the time Santiago usually reports, I think power and/or comms bit the dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Can someone link me to the Santiago de Cuba obs-- not just current but last 6 hr? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yeah, a Communist dictatorship is really easy to just go visit. I'm sure the State Department wouldn't mind. One can access Cuba from Canada... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Can someone link me to the Santiago de Cuba obs-- not just current but last 6 hr? Thanks! http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/metars/?station_ids=mucu&std_trans=standard&chk_metars=on&hoursStr=past+6+hours&submitmet=Submit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Only if you promise to stop saying 'hawt'. A brilliant use of one of your 32 posts in this community. I look forward to more insights of that depth. One can access Cuba from Canada... One can access Cuba from anywhere. The issue is that it's illegal for Americans-- as per U.S. law-- to spend money there. P.S. I'm well-versed in the rules, as I've been there-- as a teenager, on an artistic visa. http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/metars/?station_ids=mucu&std_trans=standard&chk_metars=on&hoursStr=past+6+hours&submitmet=Submit Thanks, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It appears that Sandy's rapid intensification was aided by being in the right entrance region of a strengthening jet streak extending from central Cuba NE to the central Bahamas. Being in the right entrance region enhanced upward motion and diffluence. CIMSS upper-level winds from 6z Wed CIMSS upper-level winds from 18z Wed - note significant strengthening of jet streak GFS analysis of 200 mb winds from 18z Wed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yeah, I'm confused. What point is he making, and why is he interrupting a weather discussion about it...? Maybe he could have replied to the substance of my post-- about estimating cyclone intensity-- instead of nitpicking Re: my writing style. Anyhoo... I actually let out a good laugh when I saw his post. Certainly a very interesting use of his first couple posts here. That being said you can tell cloud tops have warmed a little since meeting Cuba. No real deconstruction or anything. Really can't wait to see her back over land. Feel like my goldfish jumped the bowl and I'm watching her drown on dry land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/MUCU/2012/10/25/DailyHistory.html Note that Santiago stopped reporting at 517Z. Can someone link me to the Santiago de Cuba obs-- not just current but last 6 hr? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I actually let out a good laugh when I saw his post. Certainly a very interesting use of his first couple posts here. That being said you can tell cloud tops have warmed a little since meeting Cuba. No real deconstruction or anything. Really can't wait to see her back over land. Feel like my goldfish jumped the bowl and I'm watching her drown on dry land. This is the most mountainous part of Cuba, so it's going to take some toll, I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I actually let out a good laugh when I saw his post. Certainly a very interesting use of his first couple posts here. That being said you can tell cloud tops have warmed a little since meeting Cuba. No real deconstruction or anything. Really can't wait to see her back over land. Feel like my goldfish jumped the bowl and I'm watching her drown on dry land. Water? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Water? Yes, Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Halfway through her trek in Cuba. Next 2-3 hours are critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Hanging in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Hanging in there Wow! Cannot believe how distinct the eye looks while crossing that mountainous terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Pretty sure Sandy is saying screw Cuba I am on Steroids. Halfway across and the eye looks better than ever. Yeah, it's weird. It reminds me a little of Ernie earlier this year-- the eye looked more distinct and pinhole-like a couple of hours after landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 06Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 A good part of the Bahamas can take a significant hit from this storm, (not nearly as bad as Irene though) and I do not know the population distribution of the island chain, although I'll assume most live in Andros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Weather station in Gran Piedra, Cuba (located at ~2600 feet) reported a gust of 152 mph: http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/news/international/Hurricane_Sandy_growing_stronger_as_it_nears_Cuba.html?cid=33807494 http://www.ain.cu/2012/octubre/25ypc-huracan-penetra.htm (Spanish) Good info on situation in Cuba from a local: https://twitter.com/Yohandry8787 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 70% of Jamaica (Jamaica Public Service Power) without power according to news sources. From what I can read I think JPS is their only power company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 A good part of the Bahamas can take a significant hit from this storm, (not nearly as bad as Irene though) and I do not know the population distribution of the island chain, although I'll assume most live in Andros. Nassau is on New Providence Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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