tornadotony Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 On the current path it's on, Sandy is going to slip between the biggest mountains in southern Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 954.6 extrap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 RAW pressure obs are about 954 on this pass. Impressive even though the VDM's aren't actually using them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 RAW pressure obs are about 954 on this pass. Impressive even though the VDM's aren't actually using them. With a 4mb upward adjustment (the same increment from the last pass), that's still a 3 mb pressure drop in just under an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Several unflagged 75-80 kt SFMR readings in the SW quad, with peak FL winds of at least 92 kt. Extrap down to 954 mb, although based on last VDM assume that is a few MB too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Not sure if they hit the exact center on that last pass. Winds at the surface were a bit high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Peak FL winds 102kt in SE quad right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 101 kt FL winds in the SW quad. 80 knot make surface winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 She should wobble to the west right before landfall due to the upslope/downslope induced pressure couplet her winds will make (upslope causing a pile-up of mass and prssure rises to the right, downslope causing adiabatic warming and lee-side induced pressure falls to the left). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If the center moves more westward towards the white (3,000+ foot tops) , we could kiss this baby goodbye. Even just around the yellow, she's bound to take a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If the center moves more westward towards the white (3,000 foot tops) , we could kiss this baby goodbye. Even just around the yellow, she's bound to take a decent hit. Um, no. She isn't going to dissipate because of 3-4K foot mountains. Keep in mind that Blue Mountain in Jamaica was 7,000 ft and Sandy passed right over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 VDM says it's down to 954 mbs. 000 URNT12 KNHC 250250 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 25/02:35:30Z B. 19 deg 13 min N 076 deg 16 min W C. 700 mb 2726 m D. 81 kt E. 226 deg 15 nm F. 315 deg 92 kt G. 226 deg 13 nm H. EXTRAP 954 mb I. 10 C / 3044 m J. 17 C / 3046 m K. 9 C / NA L. CLOSED WALL M. C22 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 4 nm P. AF302 0518A SANDY OB 14 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 102 KT SE QUAD 02:45:00Z SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If the center moves more westward towards the white (3,000+ foot tops) , we could kiss this baby goodbye. Even just around the yellow, she's bound to take a decent hit. Major overstatement. Will it take a hit? Yeah. But don't forget what it encountered earlier today. Yeah, it has to encounter a little more, but "kiss it goodbye" is something we will NOT be doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 VDM says it's down to 954 mbs. Wow. If you believe the VDM before that, that's 7mb in one hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 And now we all refresh on the NHC's page waiting on the latest advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 3 fixes and 10mbs shaved off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Discussion and 48-hour outlook ------------------------------ at 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...the center of Hurricane Sandy was located near latitude 19.4 north...longitude 76.3 west. Sandy is moving toward the north near 13 mph...20 km/h...and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed tonight and Thursday. A turn toward the north-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track...the center of Sandy will make landfall in southeastern Cuba during the next few hours...emerge from the north coast of Cuba on Thursday...move near or over the central Bahamas late Thursday and Thursday night...and move near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph...150 km/h...with higher gusts. Sandy is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure is falling rapidly...and Sandy could become a category two hurricane before landfall on the Cuban coast. Weakening is forecast as the center crosses Cuba. However...Sandy is expected to remain a hurricane as it moves through the Bahamas. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles...45 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km. Guantanamo Bay Cuba recently reported sustained winds of 47 mph...76 km/h...and a wind gust of 58 mph...93 km/h. The minimum central pressure extrapolated by an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is 954 mb...28.17 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Um, no. She isn't going to dissipate because of 3-4K foot mountains. Keep in mind that Blue Mountain in Jamaica was 7,000 ft and Sandy passed right over it. Major overstatement. Will it take a hit? Yeah. But don't forget what it encountered earlier today. Yeah, it has to encounter a little more, but "kiss it goodbye" is something we will NOT be doing. What are you talking about? Sandy went past Jamaica's tops and nothing happened to it. I was ready to jump on this, and then figured others would take care of it. Thanks for doing such a good job, all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Really trying hard... ...EYE OF SANDY APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA... ...COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 >>keep in mind that Blue Mountain in Jamaica was 7,000 ft and Sandy passed right over it. just noticed that...wow she is a beast. Tropical systems typically do get ripped apart rather quickly just from small patches of 3000+ tops. More landscape of mountains in Cuba though.. Will be interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If the center moves more westward towards the white (3,000+ foot tops) , we could kiss this baby goodbye. Even just around the yellow, she's bound to take a decent hit. Small cores have ways of avoiding things. In other words it could take a (Edit: eastward wobble) around those peaks like Ike did with Jaimaca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What are you talking about? Sandy went past Jamaica's tops and nothing happened to it. The issue isn't necessarily the 3k abrupt elevation rise on the southeastern Cuban coastline, it's the much larger surface area the core will traverse as compared to the much smaller surface area of eastern Jamaica that will put Hurricane Sandy in check. Where as the speed of forward motion and the large core being partially over water as it moved over the Blue Mountains did not seem to create very much of an inhibiting factor, perhaps even having a positive effect of tightening the core, the overall larger high area of high terrain combined with the larger eastern Cuban landmass in general could have a negative impact. The core will be over land for at least 10 to 12 hours. That should cause a halt in intensification and a weakening trend until it reaches the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 3 fixes and 10mbs shaved off I thought I would never see two triangles together this season... It took long enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Your argument is invalid. "GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR SANDY TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHILE CROSSING CUBA. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 >>keep in mind that Blue Mountain in Jamaica was 7,000 ft and Sandy passed right over it. just noticed that...wow she is a beast. Tropical systems typically do get ripped apart rather quickly just from small patches of 3000+ tops. More landscape of mountains in Cuba though.. Will be interesting to see. Not exactly. If you're thinking of Hispaniola, those mountains are 10,000'. Jamaica rarely severely disrupts a hurricane. With Cuba, it has more potential because hurricanes can track for longer distances over Cuba (like Ike and Dennis), but Sandy is going to take about the shortest path possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The issue isn't necessarily the 3k abrupt elevation rise on the southeastern Cuban coastline, it's the much larger surface area the core will traverse as compared to the much smaller surface area of eastern Jamaica that will put Hurricane Sandy in check. Where as the speed of forward motion and the large core being partially over water as it moved over the Blue Mountains did not seem to create very much of an inhibiting factor, perhaps even having a positive effect of tightening the core, the overall larger high area of high terrain combined with the larger eastern Cuban landmass in general could have a negative impact. The core will be over land for at least 10 to 12 hours. That should cause a halt in intensification and a weakening trend until it reaches the Bahamas. Halt in intensification? Sure. "Kiss this baby goodbye?" (and I realize you didn't say that, but someone else did). Uh, no... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 1100 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012 CUBAN RADAR DATA AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SANDY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN RAPIDLY TO 954 MB... AND A 20-25 N MI WIDE EYE HAS DEVELOPED. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 102 KT AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE ESTIMATES OF 75-80 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA...AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALONG WITH OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS...ARE AT OR ABOVE 100 KT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SANDY IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER BEFORE LANDFALL IN CUBA IN A FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/11. THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST SANDY TO MOVE AROUND AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE LOW...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A NORTHWARD MOTION FOR 24 HR OR SO FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. FROM 48-96 HR...A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER THE MERGED SYSTEM GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE BECOMES DIVERGENT AFTER 96 HR...WITH THE ECMWF/GFDL/NOGAPS TURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD...AND THE GFS/HWRF SHOWING A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THIS IS IN PART DUE TO A LARGE CHANGE IN THE GFS FORECAST AFTER 72 HR. THUS...THE NEW FORECAST WILL SHIFTED ONLY A LITTLE TO THE EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND IT LIES TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS. HOWEVER... IT REMAINS EAST OF THE ECMWF/NOGAPS/GFDL MODELS. GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR SANDY TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHILE CROSSING CUBA. WHEN THE CENTER EMERGES NORTH OF CUBA...IT IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND BAROCLINIC ENERGY. WHILE THIS WILL ALLOW SANDY TO STAY AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE WIND FIELD WILL SPREAD OUT AND THAT THE CYCLONE WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS TROPICAL CHARACTER IN THE PROCESS. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 24 HR. THE FORECAST WILL STILL CALL FOR SANDY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 120 HR...ALTHOUGH THIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Halt in intensification? Sure. "Kiss this baby goodbye?" (and I realize you didn't say that, but someone else did). Uh, no... I missed the "Kiss this baby goodbye" comment. No, I definitely don't agree with that. I was just trying to show that this will halt intensification and I do expect it to weaken by the time it emerges off the northern Cuban coastline. I certainly don't expect it to be as strong as it is right now or may be by landfall on the southern Cuban coastline when it emerges; though, perhaps Sandy will still be a hurricane. I wouldn't rule out just below hurricane intensity when it emerges, though that isn't what the NHC is calling. Baroclinic forcing may start to really inject energy into this thing as it moves through the Bahamas, so it could easily regain the intensity it will have pre-Cuban coastline landfall. Edit: I just noticed forward motion has increased to 13 mph and looking at satellite, it may be moving a bit faster even. Forward motion is such that 10-12 hours over land seems way to long. More like 7-9 hours tops even if this gets a more NNW motion. So obviously that bodes well for the core remaining at hurricane intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER THE MERGED SYSTEM GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE BECOMES DIVERGENT AFTER 96 HR...WITH THE ECMWF/GFDL/NOGAPS TURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD...AND THE GFS/HWRF SHOWING A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THIS IS IN PART DUE TO A LARGE CHANGE IN THE GFS FORECAST AFTER 72 HR. THUS...THE NEW FORECAST WILL SHIFTED ONLY A LITTLE TO THE EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND IT LIES TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS. HOWEVER... IT REMAINS EAST OF THE ECMWF/NOGAPS/GFDL MODELS. Are they smoking? The only thing that shift east was the GFS. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Side note: The VDM was edited and the EXTRAP is now 957 MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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