Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 That core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Plenty of warm water fuel between Jamaica & Cuba. This is still about the peak of the year for ocean SSTs. Baroclinic energy will take over as the driving process when Sandy reaches the cooler waters anyways, it could very well intensify all the way until shore like the globals are suggesting. And I mean intensify in the sense of its minimum pressure and kinetic energy, peak winds will level out as it transitions to around cat 1-2 but the wind field will keep expanding. This has major storm surge written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looks like Cuba is in for a very rough time. I would not be surprised if Sandy is retired after this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'll be very surprised if we don't have a Cat 3 on our hands at the next update. The satellite/wv presentation is impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This thing is over the ammonium perchlorate of the TC world, that water is just ideal... I.E. this... Let's not forget the outflow enhancement courtesy of the sub-tropical jet, tremendous mass evacuation going on. It's playing a big role in this rapid intensification http://mapmaker.aos.wisc.edu/scr3/sat/g8/g8wvflash.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This is still about the peak of the year for ocean SSTs. Baroclinic energy will take over as the driving process when Sandy reaches the cooler waters anyways, it could very well intensify all the way until shore like the globals are suggesting. And I mean intensify in the sense of its minimum pressure and kinetic energy, peak winds will level out as it transitions to around cat 1-2 but the wind field will keep expanding. This has major storm surge written all over it. + full moon high tide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 From NE thread....Cuban radar: http://www.met.inf.c.../plnMAXw01a.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Posted this earlier but it's worth a look. As hot as things are the SST's are very warm and will help fuel this storm until around the Carolinas: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Not sure if this is the right place to post this or not but James Spann is hosting a live chat discussing Hurricane Sandy and what her future might hold. James Spann @spann We will have a special WeatherBrains tonight at 8:30 CDT to talk about Sandy. @timbrice17 of the NWS will our guest. http://live.bigbrainsmedia.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Is mid-level dry air (perhaps via downsloping off the Jamaican and Cuban mountains) mixing into the core and causing the intense convection on the NW side? Convection in the SE quadrant has correspondingly diminished. In this case, the very high TCHPA combined with the steep lapse rates and surface flux may be allowing parcels to continue cooling rapidly as they ascend, canceling the mid-level dry air and merging with the jet entrance to result in steady but gradual intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 From NE thread....Cuban radar: http://www.met.inf.c.../plnMAXw01a.gif Its interesting that the reflectivity signature is a bit ragged, with the reflectivity and recon observations suggesting the eye is open to the SE. Even more interesting, recon obtained the highest FL winds in the SE quadrant, yet the strongest SMFR winds were in the NW quadrant. This is probably a direct consequence of the convective asymmetry of the eye currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Is mid-level dry air (perhaps via downsloping off the Jamaican and Cuban mountains) mixing into the core and causing the intense convection on the NW side? Convection in the SE quadrant has correspondingly diminished. It hasn't diminished at all. It's just not as cold as the -85C tops wrapping around the western side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Uploaded image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Winds gusting to 50 mph now at Guantanamo Bay. SPECI MUGM 250121Z 11030G44KT 3200 +RA BKN012 BKN017 OVC023 26/23 A2946 RMK PK WND 10044/0117 SVR T2 SET P0016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Any update on recon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Any update on recon? 89 knots FL in the NE quad, center looks to be around 958mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Any update on recon? Closing in on their second pass into the center of the storm... gonna make a NE/SW pass it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 956.3mb extrap, 89kt flight level/74kt SFMR NE Quad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Any update on recon? Recon links: 1.) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_usaf.png 2.) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 956.3mb extrap, 89kt flight level/74kt SFMR NE Quad VDM ealier was 964 mb... interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 89 knots FL in the NE quad, center looks to be around 958mb. Roughly a 6-8mb drop within two hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 00Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 8 mb drop in 2 hours is pretty ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Might be even be a smidge lower since they missed the COC just to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Might be even be a smidge lower since they missed the COC just to the south. I hope they released a sonde... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 000 URNT12 KNHC 250202 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 25/01:46:00Z B. 19 deg 01 min N 076 deg 21 min W C. 700 mb 2748 m D. 74 kt E. 050 deg 15 nm F. 146 deg 89 kt G. 050 deg 15 nm H. EXTRAP 961 mb I. 10 C / 3050 m J. 15 C / 3050 m K. 10 C / NA L. CLOSED WALL M. C22 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 3 nm P. AF302 0518A SANDY OB 11 MAX FL WIND 96 KT SE QUAD 00:15:00Z SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB MAX FL TEMP 16 C 042 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 VDM has the pressure at 961mbs, but extrapolated from 700mb. Very odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 VDM has the pressure at 961mbs, but extrapolated from 700mb. Very odd. Yes, But in any event, pressure is down about 22 mb in about 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Not sure if this was posted, but the NHC is now forecasting Sandy to regain Hurricane strength over the Bahamas: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/235313.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Last VDM I think had L. OPEN SE... This one says CLOSED so Sandy took care of that in a hurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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