LakeEffectKing Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Really can't see any reason that we won't have a major hurricane by the time we get a Cuban landfall....Outflow?.....looks great and improving. OHC....plenty. Central core integrity?.....looks good to great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It looks okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Recon is currently flying over Cuba, so there should be no airspace problems for tonight's recon mission as the system approaches Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'm just going to leave this here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It looks okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It's only got like 12 hrs before cuba. How much can fricional convergence +TCHP can do in 12 hrs? WHo knows. My guess is 95kt 952MB. Never mind more like 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 FWIW ADT numbers are starting to skyrocket... Final T#: 5.1 Adj T# 5.5 Raw T# 6.6 6.6 would make this a 130 kt storm Even 5.1 is 93 kts though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'd say we see a peak near 85-90 knots. Eye is really starting to clear out. BTW...Ernesto never really had a defined eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'm just going to leave this here It's only got like 12 hrs before cuba. How much can fricional convergence +TCHP can do in 12 hrs? WHo knows. My guess is 95kt 952MB. 945-950MB and 115-120 is my call... check out that structure! The +TCHP should allow continued rapid intensification until second landfall. I bet recon finds a 100mph storm upon arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It's trying to rapidly intensify right now I think, it's crossing very hot waters. I'm guessing they'll find winds supporting 95-100 mph at the surface during this recon pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Cuban Govt. let the USAF plane cross over their air space. Only seen that a handful of times this decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Lightning in the N eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 She's a beaut on the most recent IR loops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Are the USAF Hgh-Density Obs for Sandy recent or from earlier today? -- http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Lightning in the N eyewall. Rapid intensification is due to mainly the frictional convergence in conjunction with the extremely warm waters and no shear currently correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Raw T up to 6.9 Pretty impressive (Brand new pass) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Are the USAF Hgh-Density Obs for Sandy recent or from earlier today? -- http://www.nhc.noaa....NT15-USAF.shtml Current. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Clearly bombing. Wonder how strong this can get before Cuba. Maybe even past 3? Can't wait for the first recon obs to be posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 We could have more current obs if the flew the recon out of San Jaun or Miami instead of NOLA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Current. Thanks. I see some +95s on the column after the pressure one and +90s on the next column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 This thing is rocketing upward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I wouldn't be surprised if Sandy reaches cat 3 before Cuba landfall (let alone a cat 4). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Thanks. I see some +95s on the column after the pressure one and +90s on the next column T and Td. This site lets you take the easy route on the obs, and lets you know how current they are: http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunnyFL Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 We could have more current obs if the flew the recon out of San Jaun or Miami instead of NOLA Their base is Keesler AFB Mississippi. They never fly out of SJU or MIA. Occasionally St. Croix though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 T and Td. This site lets you take the easy route on the obs, and lets you know how current they are: http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ Whoops... I knew I messed that up... thanks for the link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 This thing is rocketing upward. We should start taking bets at the next wind speed. She already looks like a good 105mph hurricane to me - and I'm being conservative. Raw T numbers are approaching 140mph but she doesn't have that look to me... yet. She still looks a little ragged in spots. I would not be surprised though if she cleans it up in the next few frames and reaches major tonight before hitting Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Malfunction? 8:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 24 Location: 18.7°N 76.4°W Moving: N at 14 mph Min pressure: 968 mb Max sustained: 85 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Malfunction? 8:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 24 Location: 18.7°N 76.4°W Moving: N at 14 mph Min pressure: 968 mb Max sustained: 85 mph 85 and 968 is a terrible estimate. lol. And don't tell me they flew all that way and are going back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 All is kosher. Recon just did some very odd loop maneuver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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