HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Well... A 70-kt landfall ain't bad, given we were expecting nothing in October. So, the landfalls this year: Ernesto (MX) - 80 kt* Isaac (LA) - 70 kt Sandy (JM) - 70 kt * It was operationally 75 kt-- however, the NHC is likely going to up it a bit in postanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 http://www.nws.noaa....d=adm&node=kwno thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Anyone hear of. 115mph gust @ Kingston? It was posted by a poster in SNE , but no official report with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Agreed-- it could be a 'cane in the Bahamas. But the motion isn't that fast-- maybe 12 kt-- and the NHC doesn't show a lot of acceleration. Re: impacts further N, I would see more potential in this if it was going to be blasting N. Forward speed is what killed Irene and kept it from being a hurricane in the Northeast-- it didn't accelerate. I know that the transition to extratropical might give it a boost, but that factor isn't magic-- it doesn't turn a so-so 'cane into a mega-whopper storm of the century. (This second paragraph is not really addressed to you, Tony-- just a general comment.) I believe this is true if the concern is direct wind impacts around the system core. I'd suspect the slower motion and ET transition could increase the flooding from both fresh and salt water? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It's not going to become a Cat 4. Definitely not. So it won't have as much juice to start with. People are really overplaying this. I don't think anyone is suggesting this is going to be a cat 4? Although the Euro seems to think Cat 3 winds aren't out of the realm of possibility You'll regret downplaying it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'm finding it really interesting that Sandy is actually looking a bit better as Sandy passes over the highest mountain in Jamaica... which does not compute to me. Slightly clearer/smaller eye, and now major convective increases in the eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Recon is in the Northern gulf and on it's way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Mission Five is heading for Sandy now... 18z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Anyone hear of. 115mph gust @ Kingston? It was posted by a poster in SNE , but no official report with it. It is likely an observational error... the surrounding hourly reports were under 20 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'm finding it really interesting that Sandy is actually looking a bit better as Sandy passes over the highest mountain in Jamaica... which does not compute to me. Slightly clearer/smaller eye, and now major convective increases in the eyewall. Possible that due to the core being large enough and the eastern semi-circle of the circulation remaining off the eastern tip of Jamaica, the range of the Blue Mountains simply don't cover a large enough area to hamper inflow. The southern eyewall is going to be back over water in just a few more hours. Forward speed is fast enough and this may be aiding the core here. The call this wouldn't weaken back to TS status due to Jamaica was right on... eastern Cuba may be different; however, the core will be over land a good 10 to 12 hours and that has some high terrain as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Anyone hear of. 115mph gust @ Kingston? It was posted by a poster in SNE , but no official report with it. I saw something similar on WUnderground. Chose not to believe it but here is the link. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/MKJP/2012/10/24/DailyHistory.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It will be interesting to see how well Sandy sticks together. Center is forecast to pass over the highest terrain in Cuba. Some of the mountains are 6k'+ NHC has her getting knocked down to a TS before going back to cat 1. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 New NHC forecast (21Z) calls for a 65-kt hurricane in the Bahamas and has shifted the cone west a bit. TS Warnings are now out from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet, FL, with watches up to Flagler Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 This will reek major havoc at MIA/FLL/PBI airports even with a track to the east because those airports do not have N-S runways so they could have major crosswind issues, especially with wet runways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Based upon the expanding upper-level diffluence and the increased ascent provided by the expanding jet-entrance region between the retrograding upper low and the weak ridge, plus the fact that Sandy will retain an inner core when it moves off northern Jamaica, I think there is a better-than-not chance (>50%) that Sandy could intensify fairly quickly on its approach to Cuba. I would not be shocked to see a 10-, even 15-, kt increase before landfall. The outflow pattern, which is rapidly expanding in the NW quadrant, is becoming more reminiscent of what one would expect in a stronger hurricane. Also, the substantial southerly 700-mb inflow jet on the E side of Sandy is advecting unstable parcels and higher relative humidity from the southern Caribbean basin. This type of pattern was seen in cases like Camille 1969. This could well allow Sandy to strengthen quickly as it leaves Jamaica and also provide a significant reservoir of conditionally unstable, mT air from the Caribbean even as Sandy enters the Bahamas. This type of mix could not only mean a system stronger than 65 kt off the east coast of FL, but potentially form a more potent hybrid system as Sandy accelerates off the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'm finding it really interesting that Sandy is actually looking a bit better as Sandy passes over the highest mountain in Jamaica... which does not compute to me. Slightly clearer/smaller eye, and now major convective increases in the eyewall. I'm glad you posted this. I was thinking the same as a layman looking at images and was afraid I misinterpreted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Getting a buzzsaw shape to the CDO. Looks as thought Sandy's center crossed over a very narrow part of the island at a perpendicular angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Most impressive hurricane below 20N this year IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Impressive that Jamaica didn't disrupt it at all, it looks more organized than ever now. I think it'll survive eastern Cuba without much trouble due to its large size and relatively fast speed, much different scenario than smaller and slower moving storms like Isaac and Ernesto 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I would assume rapid intensification is once again underway as the structure has improved since clearing Jamaica & the CDO is now looking very healthy. Wonder if Cuba could be hit by a low-end Cat 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Most impressive hurricane below 20N this year IMO Not sure I agree. Look at the pics of Ernie from near and just after landfall. It looked really awesome. Who knows? Sandy might get stronger before hitting Cuba-- but for now, I think Ernie still wins. (And it certainly wins in terms of operational intensity-- it was 75 kt vs. Sandy's 70 kt.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Not sure I agree. Look at the pics of Ernie from near and just after landfall. It looked really awesome. Who knows? Sandy might get stronger before hitting Cuba-- bt for now, I think Ernie still wins. (And it certainly wins in terms of operational intensity-- it was 75 kt vs. Sandy's 70 kt.) Sandy looks stronger than 75kt at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 24 OCT 2012 Time : 214500 UTC Lat : 18:18:09 N Lon : 76:31:11 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.0 / 964.5mb/ 90.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.0 5.0 6.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Sandy looks stronger than 75kt at the moment. I'm on a mobile device right now, so have only seen the couple of pics in the thread. The one Tony posted looks awesome; the one Superstorm posted-- not so much. When's the next recon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Not sure I agree. Look at the pics of Ernie from near and just after landfall. It looked really awesome. Who knows? Sandy might get stronger before hitting Cuba-- bt for now, I think Ernie still wins. (And it certainly wins in terms of operational intensity-- it was 75 kt vs. Sandy's 70 kt.) I don't think so. I think the organization of the CDO is solidly more impressive right now with Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'm on a mobile device right now, so have only seen the couple of pics in the thread. The one Tony posted looks awesome; the one Superstorm posted-- not so much. When's the next recon? En route, about 300 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Sandy looks stronger than 75kt at the moment. I would agree with this statement. The objective numbers seem to support that view. Seems like that short jaunt over Jamaica provided enough frictional convergence to tighten the inner core circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'm on a mobile device right now, so have only seen the couple of pics in the thread. The one Tony posted looks awesome; the one Superstorm posted-- not so much. When's the next recon? Recon is on it's way, currently at 23.4N 79.3W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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