KAOS Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 502 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS HURRICANE SANDY TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF SANDY WILL LIKELY BRING HIGH WINDS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-VAZ028-031-042- 052>055-057-501-502-WVZ050>053-503-504-280515- /O.NEW.KLWX.HW.A.0002.121029T0600Z-121031T0000Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL- NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT- EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY- FREDERICK VA-CLARKE-LOUDOUN-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK- FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-KING GEORGE- NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY- JEFFERSON-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK... WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS... WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER... LEESBURG...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA... FALLS CHURCH...WARRENTON...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN... ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY 502 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * TIMING...SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN DAYBREAK MONDAY AND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. * WINDS...SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AT 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH TUESDAY. FINALLY...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...A PROLONGED 24-TO-36 HOUR HIGH WIND EVENT WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. COUPLED WITH HEAVY RAINS FROM SANDY...THE HIGH WINDS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. RESIDENTS...VISITORS... AND BUSINESSES ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD PLAN FOR WIDESPREAD POWER AND COMMUNICATION OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 From the 5pm public advisory... all MA states? HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE CAROLINAS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p626808 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Was trying to figure out what percent of the 950 mb winds will translate down. My guess was 80%, any other mets have rules of thumb. I know it depends on stability also. edited for typo So.. if the pressure is suppose to be around 950 at the surface.. would not the 950 winds be at the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 So.. if the pressure is suppose to be around 950 at the surface.. would not the 950 winds be at the surface? But keep in mind - the 950mb is only right at the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 But keep in mind - the 950mb is only right at the center. I am wondering if maybe he meant 850 instead of 950 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yikes RT @JimCantore I completely disagree with NHC not putting up Hurricane warnings for the northeast. #sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Was trying to figure out what percent of the 950 mb winds will translate down. My guess was 80%, any other mets have rules of thumb. I know it depends on stability also. edited for typo I have found 70% momentum transfer for 850 mb winds and then cushion with a 5 mph bracket seems to be fairly accurate. So 80% from 950 mb seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 From the 5pm public advisory... all MA states? I'm sure just the coastlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 18z GFS way north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 18z GFS way north SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 LOL @ GFS showing snow near the metro areas. I call BS on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 SNE? Sandy Hook area. Nothing has really changed...consensus track between SNJ and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yikes RT @JimCantore I completely disagree with NHC not putting up Hurricane warnings for the northeast. #sandy Yeah he disagrees as much as the nws does with a private company unilaterally deciding to name winter storms and blasting the public with headlines all winter. Sandy is going to paste wv with snow so why hasn't twc mentioned Athena yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Sand Hook area. Nothing has really change...consensus track between SNJ and NYC. I know... i was being sarcastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yeah he disagrees as much as the nws does with a private company unilaterally deciding to name winter storms and blasting the public with headlines all winter. Sandy is going to paste wv with snow so why hasn't twc mentioned Athena yet? Wx biz is cutthroat .. Gotta always be saying you're the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 18z GFS way north Looks like it swings further East, but doesn't really end up much further north than 12z. Can't really tell from the low res maps, but still looks to be around Sandy Hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wendy Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yikes RT @JimCantore I completely disagree with NHC not putting up Hurricane warnings for the northeast. #sandy If one of the principal jobs of the NWS is to warn the average Joe of potential weather hazards, then this is a huge failure to communicate. The storm is called "HURRICANE Sandy" so people are waiting for HURRICANE watches and warnings. If they don't hear that they're under a hurricane warning, they're going to assume that it's not going to affect them and that it's not that big a deal. The choice to use high wind watches/warnings communicates to the average person that either the storm is going to miss them or that it is less than a hurricane - and it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 This is getting ot but NHC is simply following sop and rules. Their job is well defined and only a once in a lifetime event can find a grey area. I see no reason for the criticism in this specific case. It's the local nws office's job to take it from here and they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 barely in the red.....we know how this goes....pretty soon just some light showers....at least we will be getting some good wraparound snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 barely in the red.....we know how this goes....pretty soon just some light showers....at least we will be getting some good wraparound snows Don't feel too bad. I'm in that white hole in western Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Really seems that on the models we want a central NJ hit for max impact. Too far S and we get into the calmer "core" and too far N (like the 18z GFS) we get out of the main precip radius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Well for those in the MA, the southern flank of this storm will have quite the deformation zone. 85kt LLJ despite some inversion means watch out imo.That rain may be enough to bring down very strong gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Really seems that on the models we want a central NJ hit for max impact. Too far S and we get into the calmer "core" and too far N (like the 18z GFS) we get out of the main precip radius. Are the models picking up on the timing of the transition of the storm from tropical to extratropical very well? Would the state of the cyclone have an impact on the size of the precipitation shield? Wouldn't an extratropical storm tend to have a much larger precip shield than just a straight up warm core hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 LOL @ GFS showing snow near the metro areas. I call BS on that I'd take it in a heartbeat. Let SNE have the high winds and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Well for those in the MA, the southern flank of this storm will have quite the deformation zone. 85kt LLJ despite some inversion means watch out imo.That rain may be enough to bring down very strong gusts. Thank for occasionally posting in our forum! Great to have your opinion and analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I for one do not believe conditions will be all that bad in the lower Susquehanna valley, especially with a nnj landfall. Less wind and have recieved 5 inches of rain during a training thunderstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I for one do not believe conditions will be all that bad in the lower Susquehanna valley, especially with a nnj landfall. Less wind and haven gotten 5 inches of rain in less time do to training thunderstorms. Well, guess we can all relax then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I for one do not believe conditions will be all that bad in the lower Susquehanna valley, especially with a nnj landfall. Less wind and haven gotten 5 inches of rain in less time do to training thunderstorms. With a regular cat 1 statements like this can be made. Not this time. Safe than sorry and being well prepared is the only play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Starting to think our best winds will probably be Tuesday morning as the storm moves west across S PA. Probably around 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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