nw baltimore wx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Edit: lol at myself. 505AM? Well, in my defense, I've been out today! Philly office too. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 505 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ008>010-012>027-PAZ067>071- 272130- /O.NEW.KPHI.HW.A.0001.121029T0200Z-121030T0600Z/ NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX- WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE- PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN... REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON... DENTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK... FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO... CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON... MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY... ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST... WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 505 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. * WINDS...THE APPROACH OF POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY WILL GENERATE NORTHEAST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR TO THE COASTS. * TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND ALONG THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. * EXPANSION OF WATCH...MAY BE NEEDED INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA IN LATER FORECAST ASSESSMENTS WITH RIDGES VULNERABLE AS WELL AS THE LEHIGH VALLEY. * IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF WINDS BETWEEN 50 AND 65 MPH...RAIN SOFTENED GROUND AND MANY TREES STILL FULLY LEAVED...SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. TREES COULD BE UPROOTED WITH MANY BROKEN TREE LIMBS EXPECTED. POWER OUTAGES MAY BE OF LONG DURATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Surprised that the text says "up to 60" or "up to 65" - Might be a good idea to point out the potential for higher gusts in a few spots. The public has a tendency to be dumb...but 60mph is nothing to sneeze at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 LWX afternoon disco is just a quick update to the near term... but the long term is still same as this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Surprised that the text says "up to 60" or "up to 65" - Might be a good idea to point out the potential for higher gusts in a few spots. The public has a tendency to be dumb...but 60mph is nothing to sneeze at. Its in a way a bit ridiculous, the average gusts will be 55-65 and around Philly there will definitely be gusts 70+ for a few hours I believe judging my the GFS and Euro so close to the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Question for the model pros. I've simply avoided the NAM and haven't even looked at many of the panel nor have I taken its solutions seriously. Is now the time to add it to the bag or is it just not good with tropical / ex-tropical cyclones? I'd certainly give more weight to the gfs and euro but would look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Anybody know what total QPF was with EURO and winds? I saw Ian say 4"+ through 90.. but I gather there was more rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 That GFS EnS Mean seems a little farther South in NJ does it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 48 hours out, drop the ensembles and go with the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 That GFS EnS Mean seems a little farther South in NJ does it not? Track map seems about right... GFS Ens mean has the center right over the middle of NJ. Also remember that members with stronger intensities can skew the ensemble solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I dunno if SREFs are good at all, but Dendrite says they are a carbon copy of their 9z run (the 15z) and go into S NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFDL has landfall in Delaware and then goes over Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I dunno if SREFs are good at all, but Dendrite says they are a carbon copy of their 9z run (the 15z) and go into S NJ Yeah far S jersey. Looks pointed this way. I think DC/Balt can probably push 70 or so for gusts. 80+ near the bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NAM goes with central NJ , although I read it initialized too far east from Sandy's current position. ...HURRICANE SANDY... BASED ON THE NAM/ECMWF BNDRY LAYER WIND ANALYSES... THE MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED SANDY ABOUT 20 NM E OF THE OBSERVED 12Z POSN OF 28.8N 76.8W. THEIR CNTRL PRESSURES ARE ABOUT 10 MB HIGHER THAN OBSERVED. THE GFS BNDRY LAYER WIND ANALYSIS COMPARES BETTER TO OBSERVED POSN... THOUGH THE GFS CNTRL PRES IS 10-15 MB HIGHER THAN OBSERVED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yeah far S jersey. Looks pointed this way. I think DC/Balt can probably push 70 or so for gusts. 80+ near the bay? Was trying to figure out what percent of the 950 mb winds will translate down. My guess was 80%, any other mets have rules of thumb. I know it depends on stability also. edited for typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Was trying to figure out what percent of the 95 winds will translate down. My guess was 80%, any other mets have rules of thumb. I know it depends on stability also. Cold advection could make it more unstable Wes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Cold advection could make it more unstable Wes? Not if the cold advection is in the low levels. but cooling aloft will increase instability. We're getting it from both ends so I don't think we will be convectively unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Was trying to figure out what percent of the 95 winds will translate down. My guess was 80%, any other mets have rules of thumb. I know it depends on stability also. NYC has gusts to 80 in high wind watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The LWX warning map looks so lonely compared to all the other offices north of us. Are they just waiting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 No word but hilarity for the absurdity of the NWS map with each WFO issuing their our headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NYC has gusts to 80 in high wind watch. I think they do better than us but we'll do good. I like was Jason has out but was wondering whether anyone has some type of algorithm or rule of thumb about gusts based on 850 or 950 mb winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Cold advection could make it more unstable Wes? This is a pretty good question. I know an inversion can keep the winds off the surface but the left side of cyclones in the winter have no problem mixing down with howling winds. There's a huge gradient in play too. Another situation where we get howling winds Then there is topography. Lee's sides of ridges typically help bring winds down with the vertical swirls in the atmosphere (not sure the technical term. Lol. Vertical swirls sounds cool though.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 No word but hilarity for the absurdity of the NWS map with each WFO issuing their our headlines. Yeah...not sure where I stand on that decision. I guess I understand why it was made...but I thought the entire reason NHC was holding onto the storm instead of handing it to HPC was to issue uniform warnings/watches. A bunch of my friends who are not weathers nuts are VERY confused by the NWS warning map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The statements are coming... ZPF's have HWW and FW in them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think they do better than us but we'll do good. I like was Jason has out but was wondering whether anyone has some type of algorithm or rule of thumb about gusts based on 850 or 950 mb winds. Yeah they might be about max maybe a coastal spot somewhere can push 90. Not sure where the speed forecasts are coming from specifically. Was using a similar reduction to you to come up with70 locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Start up the boat Randy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 New NHC forecast has the storm extratropical before landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Heh, looks like NHC got the hint (first paragraph): http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/272055.shtml? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looks like southern tier counties in LWX (in VA) avoid Flood watch and HWW - would guess a wind advisory will eventually be posted for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 SmartCast Update: 27/21Z to 28/21Z High Threat Zone currently is: Wilmington, Cherry Point, Oceana NAS, and Elizabeth City. Seeing 24-hour rainfall accumulations of 4.3 to 4.81”. Winds between 25-35MPH with Gusts up to 45-48MPH possible. Rainfall rates around .35” per hour. Greenville, Langley, Seymour Johnson, Rocky Mount areas are next threat zone areas with 24-Hour rainfall accumulations of 1.12 to 3.1” possible. Winds 20-30MPH with Gusts up to 40-45MPH. Rainfall rates around .25 to .3” per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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