Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Any wind data with your source? nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Isn't that a good bit different from 0z? I haven't seen any maps and it's hard to tell by the discussion its north but we're talking pretty small run to run shifts on both it and the gfs at this pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The Euro looks very similar to the GFS right? Central Jersey landfall to MD border is looking pretty good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The Euro looks very similar to the GFS right? Central Jersey landfall to MD border is looking pretty good right now. Looked a little bit south of GFS, and not as far east as it comes up the coast. Will have to come WSW from LF to get into MD (which it did in the Euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 its north but we're talking pretty small run to run shifts on both it and the gfs at this pt. Yeah, I read about this big n shift on few comments in the new england thread and thought, gee, maybe we getr lucky, then I look at the model and see only very minor differences. You expect small wobbles from run to run. The euro has been pretty consistent and is pretty similar to the 12 GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Frying pan shoals has sustained winds 47 gusting to 57mph already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yeah, I read about this big n shift on few comments in the new england thread and thought, gee, maybe we getr lucky, then I look at the model and see only very minor differences. You expect small wobbles from run to run. The euro has been pretty consistent and is pretty similar to the 12 GFS. Some wishcasting going on over there right now. They think the Euro represents a massive change from the GFS and the 00Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Frying pan shoals has sustained winds 47 gusting to 57mph already Yessir and with 20' seas already. Pressure down to 994 (lowest I can find so far). Will be interesting to see how low the pressure gets and the max gust over the next 24-36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm fairly sure the entire md portion of the bay is pretty safe. It won't even be as bad as a noreaster that stays offshore. With virtually no s-se component there is no mechanism to fill the tank so to speak. Even with a good dose of e-ne before the turn nw would at the worst stack up the western shore a foot or so. Probably not even 2'. Latest marine forecast clearly shows the highest winds from the nw. Md bay can handle virtually unlimited nw winds with few flooding issues. Thanks a lot for your reply, Bob. It does look like we're lucking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 DT bails on the euro...honestly I don't know why since it's pretty much in agreement with GFS/NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 12z GFS is just a lil breezy in the 925mb level at 00z TUES (60 hrs)... just a small bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 12z GFS is just a lil breezy in the 925mb level... just a small bit... What does that level get up to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 What does that level get up to? Most of LWX CWA is in the 70 kts... but there is an area of 80+ kts for N VA/DC/ toward S MD (south of BWI by a small tad) -- this again is for 00z TUE... or Monday evening into overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JeanineJ Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 thanks! so very cool! http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/ Super Rapid Scan Operations (1-min) re currently active on GOES-14 (The Spare). http://cimss.ssec.wi...S-14_SRSOR.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Most of LWX CWA is in the 70 kts... but there is an area of 80+ kts for N VA/DC/ toward S MD (south of BWI by a small tad) -- this again is for 00z TUE... or Monday evening into overnight Wow...that's really impressive. As other have said tho - I bet a lot won't get mixed down. Still seems good for 60-70mph gusts for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just for Ji: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Accuweather forecast for my zipcode has me gusting to 90mph on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wow...that's really impressive. As other have said tho - I bet a lot won't get mixed down. Still seems good for 60-70mph gusts for sure. Its right above the surface... though I admit I have not seen a soundng from the 12z GFS to see if there is an inversion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Accuweather forecast for my zipcode has me gusting to 90mph on Monday Hey let it be, we may not gust that a lot, but an isolated insane gust can't be ruled out my friend lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 SmartCast Update: 27/16Z to 28/16Z (My Output now running hourly updates...) Heaviest rain for next 24 hours is in the Cherry Point and Wilmington areas, with accumulations of 5.3” of rain fall. Winds 36030G45MPH through the period. Heaviest rain fall rates begin around 28/11Z of .33” per hour. Elizabeth City and Oceana is also expecting winds Gusts up to 45mph and rainfall accumulations for the next 24 hours of 3.36 to 3.8”. Overall rainfall accumulations throughout the Mid-Atlantic regions right now are between 1.6” to 2.29” through 28/16Z SmartCast Update: 27/16Z to 28/16Z Heaviest rain for next 24 hours is in the Cherry Point and Wilmington areas, with accumulations of 5.3” of rain fall. Winds 36030G45MPH through the period. Heaviest rain fall rates begin around 28/11Z of .33” per hour. Elizabeth City and Oceana is also expecting winds Gusts up to 45mph and rainfall accumulations for the next 24 hours of 3.36 to 3.8”. Overall rainfall accumulations throughout the Mid-Atlantic regions right now are between 1.6” to 2.29” through 28/16Z Hourly Output http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Hey let it be, we may not gust that a lot, but an isolated insane gust can't be ruled out my friend lol. closer to the water I bet. I don't doubt it though. I bet for my zip code I'll get 70mph tops. But that's certainly nothing to down play! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 For those interested Topic: Perfect Storm 2 (2012) Author: Mike Zuranski Message: From Mike I've been working on this yesterday and today, and I'm pleased to announce the release of a temporary sector just for Sandy as it makes landfall in the northeast. It's a minimal selection of products that are zoomed in slightly and a bit easier to read than some of the other images that we offer. It's running for both the NAM and GFS, and both models offer a Total Precip Accumulation product so we can more easily see the rainfall impact. This sector will be removed once its usefulness has expired. http://weather.cod.e...nski/sandy.html Pretty neat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 closer to the water I bet. I don't doubt it though. I bet for my zip code I'll get 70mph tops. But that's certainly nothing to down play! I live right on the western shore of the bay east of Baltimore, you can bet I got a chance to touch 80mph, wouldn't you agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It's hard to see it because of the flood watch, but State College has issued a High Wind Watch. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 305 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-056>059-063>066-280315- /O.NEW.KCTP.HW.A.0002.121029T1500Z-121031T0000Z/ WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD- NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN- JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING- SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR- NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON- CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT... ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...RENOVO...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD... PHILIPSBURG...STATE COLLEGE...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON... MOUNT UNION...LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...SOMERSET...BEDFORD... MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO... TROUT RUN...LAPORTE...LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT...LEWISBURG... SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG... BERWICK...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON... CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER 305 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. * TIMING...HIGH WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND LAST INTO TUESDAY * IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...RAIN SOFTENED GROUND AND MANY TREES STILL HAVING MOST OF THEIR LEAVES...COULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND BRANCHES LEADING TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. POWER OUTAGES MAY BE OF LONG DURATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Question for the model pros. I've simply avoided the NAM and haven't even looked at many of the panel nor have I taken its solutions seriously. Is now the time to add it to the bag or is it just not good with tropical / ex-tropical cyclones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Edit: lol at myself. 505AM? Well, in my defense, I've been out today! Philly office too. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 505 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ008>010-012>027-PAZ067>071- 272130- /O.NEW.KPHI.HW.A.0001.121029T0200Z-121030T0600Z/ NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX- WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE- PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN... REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON... DENTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK... FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO... CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON... MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY... ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST... WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 505 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. * WINDS...THE APPROACH OF POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY WILL GENERATE NORTHEAST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR TO THE COASTS. * TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND ALONG THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. * EXPANSION OF WATCH...MAY BE NEEDED INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA IN LATER FORECAST ASSESSMENTS WITH RIDGES VULNERABLE AS WELL AS THE LEHIGH VALLEY. * IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF WINDS BETWEEN 50 AND 65 MPH...RAIN SOFTENED GROUND AND MANY TREES STILL FULLY LEAVED...SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. TREES COULD BE UPROOTED WITH MANY BROKEN TREE LIMBS EXPECTED. POWER OUTAGES MAY BE OF LONG DURATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Surprised that the text says "up to 60" or "up to 65" - Might be a good idea to point out the potential for higher gusts in a few spots. The public has a tendency to be dumb...but 60mph is nothing to sneeze at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 LWX afternoon disco is just a quick update to the near term... but the long term is still same as this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Surprised that the text says "up to 60" or "up to 65" - Might be a good idea to point out the potential for higher gusts in a few spots. The public has a tendency to be dumb...but 60mph is nothing to sneeze at. Its in a way a bit ridiculous, the average gusts will be 55-65 and around Philly there will definitely be gusts 70+ for a few hours I believe judging my the GFS and Euro so close to the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Question for the model pros. I've simply avoided the NAM and haven't even looked at many of the panel nor have I taken its solutions seriously. Is now the time to add it to the bag or is it just not good with tropical / ex-tropical cyclones? I'd certainly give more weight to the gfs and euro but would look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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