Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Hurricane Sandy


Wonderdog

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Isn't that a good bit different from 0z? I haven't seen any maps and it's hard to tell by the discussion

its north but we're talking pretty small run to run shifts on both it and the gfs at this pt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

its north but we're talking pretty small run to run shifts on both it and the gfs at this pt.

Yeah, I read about this big n shift on few comments in the new england thread and thought, gee, maybe we getr lucky, then I look at the model and see only very minor differences. You expect small wobbles from run to run. The euro has been pretty consistent and is pretty similar to the 12 GFS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, I read about this big n shift on few comments in the new england thread and thought, gee, maybe we getr lucky, then I look at the model and see only very minor differences. You expect small wobbles from run to run. The euro has been pretty consistent and is pretty similar to the 12 GFS.

Some wishcasting going on over there right now. They think the Euro represents a massive change from the GFS and the 00Z run.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm fairly sure the entire md portion of the bay is pretty safe. It won't even be as bad as a noreaster that stays offshore. With virtually no s-se component there is no mechanism to fill the tank so to speak. Even with a good dose of e-ne before the turn nw would at the worst stack up the western shore a foot or so. Probably not even 2'.

Latest marine forecast clearly shows the highest winds from the nw. Md bay can handle virtually unlimited nw winds with few flooding issues.

Thanks a lot for your reply, Bob. It does look like we're lucking out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Most of LWX CWA is in the 70 kts... but there is an area of 80+ kts for N VA/DC/ toward S MD (south of BWI by a small tad) -- this again is for 00z TUE... or Monday evening into overnight

Wow...that's really impressive. As other have said tho - I bet a lot won't get mixed down. Still seems good for 60-70mph gusts for sure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SmartCast Update: 27/16Z to 28/16Z (My Output now running hourly updates...)

Heaviest rain for next 24 hours is in the Cherry Point and Wilmington areas, with accumulations of 5.3” of rain fall. Winds 36030G45MPH through the period. Heaviest rain fall rates begin around 28/11Z of .33” per hour.

Elizabeth City and Oceana is also expecting winds Gusts up to 45mph and rainfall accumulations for the next 24 hours of 3.36 to 3.8”.

Overall rainfall accumulations throughout the Mid-Atlantic regions right now are between 1.6” to 2.29” through 28/16Z

SmartCast Update: 27/16Z to 28/16Z

Heaviest rain for next 24 hours is in the Cherry Point and Wilmington areas, with accumulations of 5.3” of rain fall. Winds 36030G45MPH through the period. Heaviest rain fall rates begin around 28/11Z of .33” per hour.

Elizabeth City and Oceana is also expecting winds Gusts up to 45mph and rainfall accumulations for the next 24 hours of 3.36 to 3.8”.

Overall rainfall accumulations throughout the Mid-Atlantic regions right now are between 1.6” to 2.29” through 28/16Z

Hourly Output http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For those interested

Topic: Perfect Storm 2 (2012)

Author: Mike Zuranski

Message:

From Mike

I've been working on this yesterday and today, and I'm pleased to announce

the release of a temporary sector just for Sandy as it makes landfall in

the northeast. It's a minimal selection of products that are zoomed in

slightly and a bit easier to read than some of the other images that we

offer. It's running for both the NAM and GFS, and both models offer a

Total Precip Accumulation product so we can more easily see the rainfall

impact. This sector will be removed once its usefulness has expired.

http://weather.cod.e...nski/sandy.html

Pretty neat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's hard to see it because of the flood watch, but State College has issued a High Wind Watch.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

305 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-

049>053-056>059-063>066-280315-

/O.NEW.KCTP.HW.A.0002.121029T1500Z-121031T0000Z/

WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-

NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-

JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-

SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-

NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-

CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT...

ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...RENOVO...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...

PHILIPSBURG...STATE COLLEGE...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...

MOUNT UNION...LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...

MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...

TROUT RUN...LAPORTE...LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT...LEWISBURG...

SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...

BERWICK...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...

CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER

305 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY

EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH

WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH

TUESDAY EVENING.

* WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 60 MPH.

* TIMING...HIGH WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND

LAST INTO TUESDAY

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60

MPH...RAIN SOFTENED GROUND AND MANY TREES STILL HAVING MOST OF

THEIR LEAVES...COULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND

BRANCHES LEADING TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. POWER OUTAGES MAY

BE OF LONG DURATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS

HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF

58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST

FORECASTS.

&&

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...