PhineasC Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm still trying to get my head around what a GFS/EURO blend (i.e. landfall between Ocean City MD and Atlantic City, NJ) would look like in terms of sensible weather for the DC-Balt corridor. Can anyone enlighten me - or at least clarify whether this would be "something special" or just a couple of days of cold windy rain to make the commute slightly slower? I am as much a skeptic as anyone, but seriously the depiction on the Euro and GFS is not just a rainy day. We are talking 6-10 inches of rain across a wide area and 50+ sustained winds with gusts past 60. That is not really run of the mill and most of the area will shut down and lose power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Why are you still there??!? New store....cranking!!! My hotel is right on the beach... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I am more concerned that the days and days of heavy rains in PA and WV will cause flooding in the Potomac and Susquehanna. That was the main issue with Agnes. The Conowingo Dam was almost breached. Thats a really good point. My post earlier about 5-10" of rain being easily manageable from a backyard potential doesn't address what widespread amounts can do to the major drainage rivers. The expanse on the qpf maps is something I can't recall seeing before. G-town and Alexandria could have substantial problems days after sandy is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I am more concerned that the days and days of heavy rains in PA and WV will cause flooding in the Potomac and Susquehanna. That was the main issue with Agnes. The Conowingo Dam was almost breached. That's a great point. Conowingo is in trouble anyway as there is already too much sediment so any serious flooding will bring and influx of dirty, pesticide ridden water into the bay. The only good thing in the dc area is that we still have rainfall deficit so we can handle more water than during some other storms. Still, when you get 5 inches or more from a storm you almost always get flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 BWI year-to-date rain deficiency as of 10/26/12 = 7.83" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think its a given that Alexandria is going to flood. That area floods with far less localized rain events. With the widespread 3-6 inches the Potomac is going to be cranking. After the snow chase on Monday and Tuesday. I am going to make sure I get down to Great Falls on Thursday to see the river at its most awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I am as much a skeptic as anyone, but seriously the depiction on the Euro and GFS is not just a rainy day. We are talking 6-10 inches of rain across a wide area and 50+ sustained winds with gusts past 60. That is not really run of the mill and most of the area will shut down and lose power. We all need to think along the lines of a very long duration dercho event. Crews won't even be able to start working for 36+ hours after the power goes out this time either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think its a given that Alexandria is going to flood. That area floods with far less localized rain events. With the widespread 3-6 inches the Potomac is going to be cranking. After the snow chase on Monday and Tuesday. I am going to make sure I get down to Great Falls on Thursday to see the river at its most awesome. If you can even get there. The roads there are very tree-lined. Good chance one or more of them is closed for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think its a given that Alexandria is going to flood. That area floods with far less localized rain events. With the widespread 3-6 inches the Potomac is going to be cranking. After the snow chase on Monday and Tuesday. I am going to make sure I get down to Great Falls on Thursday to see the river at its most awesome. I would think that with the northwest winds, it would assist in keeping the Potomac fairly stable, but I can see above the fall line being in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Thats a really good point. My post earlier about 5-10" of rain being easily manageable from a backyard potential doesn't address what widespread amounts can do to the major drainage rivers. The expanse on the qpf maps is something I can't recall seeing before. G-town and Alexandria could have substantial problems days after sandy is gone. I am a bit nervous living down here now....only about 100 yards from the water...Isabel was a disaster, but fortunately we aren't looking at that track....But it doesn't take much to flood down here....pretty much just have to sneeze and the prone areas get flooded... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 If you can even get there. The roads there are very tree-lined. Good chance one or more of them is closed for awhile. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I would think that with the northwest winds, it would assist in keeping the Potomac fairly stable, but I can see above the fall line being in trouble. It takes a couple days to crest. High tides in dc are going to be big trouble all the way through next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 New store....cranking!!! My hotel is right on the beach... risk your life however necessary to get some good imagery, thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I offer this to JI. the NAm even crashed the cold air eastward enough to give dc snow on the model. It's an outlier compared to last night's sref guidance but one can hope. Only part of the storm I care about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 CTBlizz and the NE weenies have now ditched the GFS/NAM/EURO combo for the boston hitting RGEM/GGEM/NOGAPS/UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 risk your life however necessary to get some good imagery, thx View from my room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeedaSnowday Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 CTBlizz and the NE weenies have now ditched the GFS/NAM/EURO combo for the boston hitting RGEM/GGEM/NOGAPS/UKMET They can have it! I would prefer to take the first big snow event..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Train Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think this was asked earlier, but what are we talking about in terms of instability in the atmosphere for the West side of the storm? Are we looking at tornadoes and storms due to the tropical/cold air mix? Obviously we're talking lots of rain/wind, but wondering if we're also going to be facing tornadic activity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I guess one of the brightspots is that even with a stronger and further south solution that the gfs shows, the Chesapeake will be pretty much spared any serious flooding threats. Peak wind window is mostly n-nw. If anything, water will be blown out of the bay with very low tides. Western shore surge has been my prime concern following this threat (and this thread) over the last few days. I'm tentatively relieved by the latest landfall ideas but does anyone think the Bay could still slosh as the storm moves over northern MD, although weakening? PLEASE forgive the IM(flood prone)BY question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think this was asked earlier, but what are we talking about in terms of instability in the atmosphere for the West side of the storm? Are we looking at tornadoes and storms due to the tropical/cold air mix? Obviously we're talking lots of rain/wind, but wondering if we're also going to be facing tornadic activity? Doubt there's much tornado threat at all. Perhaps parts of SNE tho that's kinda doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think this was asked earlier, but what are we talking about in terms of instability in the atmosphere for the West side of the storm? Are we looking at tornadoes and storms due to the tropical/cold air mix? Obviously we're talking lots of rain/wind, but wondering if we're also going to be facing tornadic activity? Little to none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think this was asked earlier, but what are we talking about in terms of instability in the atmosphere for the West side of the storm? Are we looking at tornadoes and storms due to the tropical/cold air mix? Obviously we're talking lots of rain/wind, but wondering if we're also going to be facing tornadic activity? Near 0 IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 New store....cranking!!! My hotel is right on the beach... Nice knowing you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skel Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The satellite image is looking pretty weak.. Is this because the storm is now going over slightly less warm water? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JeanineJ Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 thanks for the pic. I'm trying to convince my husband to go for a drive tomorrow, but if you post more pics... I won't feel so bad about not checking out the angry seas. View from my room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Talk about a cave. Euro was all over this for days. As usual GFS gets crushed. 1. Models don't 'cave'. 2. The storm hasn't even happened yet in terms of landfall, real inland impact, etc.. 3. No model has been perfect thus far....especially in terms of observed intensity. 4. Many runs of the euro seem to have been too deep, and too far south at landfall. Both the gefs and ec ensembles have been quite good thus far it seems. 5. The gfs is outperforming the ec in terms if tc tracks in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JeanineJ Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 All you weather aficionados, where might I find that high res. satellite image that is updated every minute? they quickly spoke about it on the twc, but I don't see it on thier site. Not even on noaa TPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 1. Models don't 'cave'. 2. The storm hasn't even happened yet in terms of landfall, real inland impact, etc.. 3. No model has been perfect thus far....especially in terms of observed intensity. 4. Many runs of the euro seem to have been too deep, and too far south at landfall. Both the gefs and ec ensembles have been quite good thus far it seems. 5. The gfs is outperforming the ec in terms if tc tracks in 2012. Maybe cave was a bit too strong? The Euro had a further south track and turn. The GFS was taking it further NE before the turn. The GFS has clearly shifted towards the Euro's idea. But you are correct that neither has verified yet. So I will wait to declare a "winner" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Western shore surge has been my prime concern following this threat (and this thread) over the last few days. I'm tentatively relieved by the latest landfall ideas but does anyone think the Bay could still slosh as the storm moves over northern MD, although weakening? PLEASE forgive the IM(flood prone)BY question... I'm fairly sure the entire md portion of the bay is pretty safe. It won't even be as bad as a noreaster that stays offshore. With virtually no s-se component there is no mechanism to fill the tank so to speak. Even with a good dose of e-ne before the turn nw would at the worst stack up the western shore a foot or so. Probably not even 2'. Latest marine forecast clearly shows the highest winds from the nw. Md bay can handle virtually unlimited nw winds with few flooding issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 All you weather aficionados, where might I find that high res. satellite image that is updated every minute? they quickly spoke about it on the twc, but I don't see it on thier site. Not even on noaa TPC. Super Rapid Scan Operations (1-min) re currently active on GOES-14 (The Spare). http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/srsor/GOES-14_SRSOR.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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