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Hurricane Sandy


Wonderdog

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I think its a given that Alexandria is going to flood. That area floods with far less localized rain events. With the widespread 3-6 inches the Potomac is going to be cranking. After the snow chase on Monday and Tuesday. I am going to make sure I get down to Great Falls on Thursday to see the river at its most awesome.

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I am as much a skeptic as anyone, but seriously the depiction on the Euro and GFS is not just a rainy day. We are talking 6-10 inches of rain across a wide area and 50+ sustained winds with gusts past 60. That is not really run of the mill and most of the area will shut down and lose power.

We all need to think along the lines of a very long duration dercho event. Crews won't even be able to start working for 36+ hours after the power goes out this time either.

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I think its a given that Alexandria is going to flood. That area floods with far less localized rain events. With the widespread 3-6 inches the Potomac is going to be cranking. After the snow chase on Monday and Tuesday. I am going to make sure I get down to Great Falls on Thursday to see the river at its most awesome.

If you can even get there. The roads there are very tree-lined. Good chance one or more of them is closed for awhile.

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I think its a given that Alexandria is going to flood. That area floods with far less localized rain events. With the widespread 3-6 inches the Potomac is going to be cranking. After the snow chase on Monday and Tuesday. I am going to make sure I get down to Great Falls on Thursday to see the river at its most awesome.

I would think that with the northwest winds, it would assist in keeping the Potomac fairly stable, but I can see above the fall line being in trouble.

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I think this was asked earlier, but what are we talking about in terms of instability in the atmosphere for the West side of the storm? Are we looking at tornadoes and storms due to the tropical/cold air mix? Obviously we're talking lots of rain/wind, but wondering if we're also going to be facing tornadic activity?

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I guess one of the brightspots is that even with a stronger and further south solution that the gfs shows, the Chesapeake will be pretty much spared any serious flooding threats. Peak wind window is mostly n-nw. If anything, water will be blown out of the bay with very low tides.

Western shore surge has been my prime concern following this threat (and this thread) over the last few days. I'm tentatively relieved by the latest landfall ideas but does anyone think the Bay could still slosh as the storm moves over northern MD, although weakening? PLEASE forgive the IM(flood prone)BY question...

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I think this was asked earlier, but what are we talking about in terms of instability in the atmosphere for the West side of the storm? Are we looking at tornadoes and storms due to the tropical/cold air mix? Obviously we're talking lots of rain/wind, but wondering if we're also going to be facing tornadic activity?

Doubt there's much tornado threat at all. Perhaps parts of SNE tho that's kinda doubtful.

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I think this was asked earlier, but what are we talking about in terms of instability in the atmosphere for the West side of the storm? Are we looking at tornadoes and storms due to the tropical/cold air mix? Obviously we're talking lots of rain/wind, but wondering if we're also going to be facing tornadic activity?

Little to none.

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I think this was asked earlier, but what are we talking about in terms of instability in the atmosphere for the West side of the storm? Are we looking at tornadoes and storms due to the tropical/cold air mix? Obviously we're talking lots of rain/wind, but wondering if we're also going to be facing tornadic activity?

Near 0 IMO

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Talk about a cave. Euro was all over this for days. As usual GFS gets crushed.

1. Models don't 'cave'.

2. The storm hasn't even happened yet in terms of landfall, real inland impact, etc..

3. No model has been perfect thus far....especially in terms of observed intensity.

4. Many runs of the euro seem to have been too deep, and too far south at landfall. Both the gefs and ec ensembles have been quite good thus far it seems.

5. The gfs is outperforming the ec in terms if tc tracks in 2012.

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1. Models don't 'cave'.

2. The storm hasn't even happened yet in terms of landfall, real inland impact, etc..

3. No model has been perfect thus far....especially in terms of observed intensity.

4. Many runs of the euro seem to have been too deep, and too far south at landfall. Both the gefs and ec ensembles have been quite good thus far it seems.

5. The gfs is outperforming the ec in terms if tc tracks in 2012.

Maybe cave was a bit too strong? The Euro had a further south track and turn. The GFS was taking it further NE before the turn. The GFS has clearly shifted towards the Euro's idea. But you are correct that neither has verified yet. So I will wait to declare a "winner"

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Western shore surge has been my prime concern following this threat (and this thread) over the last few days. I'm tentatively relieved by the latest landfall ideas but does anyone think the Bay could still slosh as the storm moves over northern MD, although weakening? PLEASE forgive the IM(flood prone)BY question...

I'm fairly sure the entire md portion of the bay is pretty safe. It won't even be as bad as a noreaster that stays offshore. With virtually no s-se component there is no mechanism to fill the tank so to speak. Even with a good dose of e-ne before the turn nw would at the worst stack up the western shore a foot or so. Probably not even 2'.

Latest marine forecast clearly shows the highest winds from the nw. Md bay can handle virtually unlimited nw winds with few flooding issues.

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All you weather aficionados, where might I find that high res. satellite image that is updated every minute? they quickly spoke about it on the twc, but I don't see it on thier site. Not even on noaa TPC.

Super Rapid Scan Operations (1-min) re currently active on GOES-14 (The Spare).

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/srsor/GOES-14_SRSOR.html

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