Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Verbatim, nhc's track takes the center right over baltimore. That would be a unique experience for those up that way. Winds would drop below 10mph for a time before ripping from the opposite direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 i guess dr maeu was wrong with hurr warnings from maine to nc. not shocking at all. Heh. But in all seriousness, seems like a bit of a boneheaded decision. Either change the designation now or hoist the warnings. We're going to have a deepening 80mph hurricane nearing the coastline with no headlines? Just odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Did NHC shift storm south? Looks like they did a lil bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I offer this to JI. the NAm even crashed the cold air eastward enough to give dc snow on the model. It's an outlier compared to last night's sref guidance but one can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Heh. But in all seriousness, seems like a bit of a boneheaded decision. Either change the designation now or hoist the warnings. We're going to have a deepening 80mph hurricane nearing the coastline with no headlines? Just odd. Highly agree... and even some mets are questioning it on all forums... just seems silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Does anyone understand why the models keep underestimating the pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looks like NHC is pretty much banking on the due west track into and over land with a slight jog S too. In this specific case it would be a + to show the track in a little more detail than to connect the dots because connecting the dots is a headscratcher unless you're a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'll say too, with pressure already down to 958mb, addition of baroclinic enhancement will probably drop Sandy into the 940's. One of the strongest 'tropical' pressures ever for the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Does anyone understand why the models keep underestimating the pressure? Due to the resolution of the models, I'd guess? Assimilation systems at initialization would sort of "wash" that out somewhat too (not quite the right way to word that, but you get the idea). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS is south. In line with Euro now. We are going to get pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS south now, looks like DC is good in line for 5-8" of rain. Bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS brings the pain.. S NJ landfall... 956 mb at 63 over or near PHL 969 in S PA just northeast of Randy at 69... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Look at that "eye" over SE PA/Nrthrn MD on the 12Z GFS. Not seen that before! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 936 offshore on gfs https://twitter.com/...3/photo/1/large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS brings the pain.. S NJ landfall... 956 mb at 63 over or near PHL 969 in S PA just northeast of Randy at 69... Yup, more or less sits and spins in northern MD and slowly weakens. 5"+ rain through 12Z Wednedsay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Talk about a cave. Euro was all over this for days. As usual GFS gets crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 936 offshore on gfs https://twitter.com/...3/photo/1/large That would screw nyc and us. impressive image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 936 offshore on gfs https://twitter.com/...3/photo/1/large Where did you get that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 That would screw nyc and us. impressive image. the best solution for everyone was debating whether to head back to DC but I think NYC will see worse conditions... more rain in DC but surge/winds for NYC. can't wait to stay at my friend's in evac zone B in the west village... will be lovely to see the hudson come say hello! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 That would screw nyc and us. impressive image. I'm still trying to get my head around what a GFS/EURO blend (i.e. landfall between Ocean City MD and Atlantic City, NJ) would look like in terms of sensible weather for the DC-Balt corridor. Can anyone enlighten me - or at least clarify whether this would be "something special" or just a couple of days of cold windy rain to make the commute slightly slower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I guess one of the brightspots is that even with a stronger and further south solution that the gfs shows, the Chesapeake will be pretty much spared any serious flooding threats. Peak wind window is mostly n-nw. If anything, water will be blown out of the bay with very low tides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I guess one of the brightspots is that even with a stronger and further south solution that the gfs shows, the Chesapeake will be pretty much spared any serious flooding threats. Peak wind window is mostly n-nw. If anything, water will be blown out of the bay with very low tides. I think that is the good news. The gusts and prolonged heavy rains do suggest lots of prolonged power outages as the power companies aren't going to have crews work on clearing trees and limbs off of lines unless the winds die enough to make it safe. That is a big problem over much of the east. The gfs even gives plenty of wind into bos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Starting to get nasty here in Virginia beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I guess one of the brightspots is that even with a stronger and further south solution that the gfs shows, the Chesapeake will be pretty much spared any serious flooding threats. Peak wind window is mostly n-nw. If anything, water will be blown out of the bay with very low tides. I am more concerned that the days and days of heavy rains in PA and WV will cause flooding in the Potomac and Susquehanna. That was the main issue with Agnes. The Conowingo Dam was almost breached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Starting to get nasty here in Virginia beach Why are you still there??!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Where did you get that map? It's from weatherbell but that was posted to twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm still trying to get my head around what a GFS/EURO blend (i.e. landfall between Ocean City MD and Atlantic City, NJ) would look like in terms of sensible weather for the DC-Balt corridor. Can anyone enlighten me - or at least clarify whether this would be "something special" or just a couple of days of cold windy rain to make the commute slightly slower? I am as much a skeptic as anyone, but seriously the depiction on the Euro and GFS is not just a rainy day. We are talking 6-10 inches of rain across a wide area and 50+ sustained winds with gusts past 60. That is not really run of the mill and most of the area will shut down and lose power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Why are you still there??!? New store....cranking!!! My hotel is right on the beach... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I am more concerned that the days and days of heavy rains in PA and WV will cause flooding in the Potomac and Susquehanna. That was the main issue with Agnes. The Conowingo Dam was almost breached. Thats a really good point. My post earlier about 5-10" of rain being easily manageable from a backyard potential doesn't address what widespread amounts can do to the major drainage rivers. The expanse on the qpf maps is something I can't recall seeing before. G-town and Alexandria could have substantial problems days after sandy is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I am more concerned that the days and days of heavy rains in PA and WV will cause flooding in the Potomac and Susquehanna. That was the main issue with Agnes. The Conowingo Dam was almost breached. That's a great point. Conowingo is in trouble anyway as there is already too much sediment so any serious flooding will bring and influx of dirty, pesticide ridden water into the bay. The only good thing in the dc area is that we still have rainfall deficit so we can handle more water than during some other storms. Still, when you get 5 inches or more from a storm you almost always get flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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