NeedaSnowday Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I don't know about that... For folks away from the coast and not on creeks - and particularly for those inside DC/Balt cities, I don't see why this should be any more than a couple of rainy, breezy days - just over a wider area than usual. Or am I missing something? ** B G E Not equipped nor capable of handling a massive power outage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I am definitely going on a snow chase. And I dont think I am going to have to go as far as I originally thought. Maybe just 15 miles S/W on the ridges of Skyline Dr. The cold air is really getting wrapped in behind the storm on the NAM. But it is the NAM afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeedaSnowday Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Did NHC shift storm south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Verbatim, nhc's track takes the center right over baltimore. That would be a unique experience for those up that way. Winds would drop below 10mph for a time before ripping from the opposite direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 i guess dr maeu was wrong with hurr warnings from maine to nc. not shocking at all. Heh. But in all seriousness, seems like a bit of a boneheaded decision. Either change the designation now or hoist the warnings. We're going to have a deepening 80mph hurricane nearing the coastline with no headlines? Just odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Did NHC shift storm south? Looks like they did a lil bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I offer this to JI. the NAm even crashed the cold air eastward enough to give dc snow on the model. It's an outlier compared to last night's sref guidance but one can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Heh. But in all seriousness, seems like a bit of a boneheaded decision. Either change the designation now or hoist the warnings. We're going to have a deepening 80mph hurricane nearing the coastline with no headlines? Just odd. Highly agree... and even some mets are questioning it on all forums... just seems silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Does anyone understand why the models keep underestimating the pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looks like NHC is pretty much banking on the due west track into and over land with a slight jog S too. In this specific case it would be a + to show the track in a little more detail than to connect the dots because connecting the dots is a headscratcher unless you're a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'll say too, with pressure already down to 958mb, addition of baroclinic enhancement will probably drop Sandy into the 940's. One of the strongest 'tropical' pressures ever for the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Does anyone understand why the models keep underestimating the pressure? Due to the resolution of the models, I'd guess? Assimilation systems at initialization would sort of "wash" that out somewhat too (not quite the right way to word that, but you get the idea). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS is south. In line with Euro now. We are going to get pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS south now, looks like DC is good in line for 5-8" of rain. Bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS brings the pain.. S NJ landfall... 956 mb at 63 over or near PHL 969 in S PA just northeast of Randy at 69... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Look at that "eye" over SE PA/Nrthrn MD on the 12Z GFS. Not seen that before! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 936 offshore on gfs https://twitter.com/...3/photo/1/large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS brings the pain.. S NJ landfall... 956 mb at 63 over or near PHL 969 in S PA just northeast of Randy at 69... Yup, more or less sits and spins in northern MD and slowly weakens. 5"+ rain through 12Z Wednedsay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Talk about a cave. Euro was all over this for days. As usual GFS gets crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 936 offshore on gfs https://twitter.com/...3/photo/1/large That would screw nyc and us. impressive image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 936 offshore on gfs https://twitter.com/...3/photo/1/large Where did you get that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 That would screw nyc and us. impressive image. the best solution for everyone was debating whether to head back to DC but I think NYC will see worse conditions... more rain in DC but surge/winds for NYC. can't wait to stay at my friend's in evac zone B in the west village... will be lovely to see the hudson come say hello! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 That would screw nyc and us. impressive image. I'm still trying to get my head around what a GFS/EURO blend (i.e. landfall between Ocean City MD and Atlantic City, NJ) would look like in terms of sensible weather for the DC-Balt corridor. Can anyone enlighten me - or at least clarify whether this would be "something special" or just a couple of days of cold windy rain to make the commute slightly slower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I guess one of the brightspots is that even with a stronger and further south solution that the gfs shows, the Chesapeake will be pretty much spared any serious flooding threats. Peak wind window is mostly n-nw. If anything, water will be blown out of the bay with very low tides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I guess one of the brightspots is that even with a stronger and further south solution that the gfs shows, the Chesapeake will be pretty much spared any serious flooding threats. Peak wind window is mostly n-nw. If anything, water will be blown out of the bay with very low tides. I think that is the good news. The gusts and prolonged heavy rains do suggest lots of prolonged power outages as the power companies aren't going to have crews work on clearing trees and limbs off of lines unless the winds die enough to make it safe. That is a big problem over much of the east. The gfs even gives plenty of wind into bos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Starting to get nasty here in Virginia beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I guess one of the brightspots is that even with a stronger and further south solution that the gfs shows, the Chesapeake will be pretty much spared any serious flooding threats. Peak wind window is mostly n-nw. If anything, water will be blown out of the bay with very low tides. I am more concerned that the days and days of heavy rains in PA and WV will cause flooding in the Potomac and Susquehanna. That was the main issue with Agnes. The Conowingo Dam was almost breached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Starting to get nasty here in Virginia beach Why are you still there??!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Where did you get that map? It's from weatherbell but that was posted to twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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