NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 You would also think a stronger storm could push through that NE block a little better too. The post storm analysis will be interesting. Incorrect. The physics of it would release more latent heat, And in return, pump up the ridge even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Not sure about the pressure part but the tropical vs exptropical means a lot irt to track and capture. From what I read, if the storm maintains trop characteristics longer then it will take longer to phase. The one think I keep weeding through threads in is what happens if it's stronger but xtropical? I think someone said the phase happens earlier and it makes the turn earlier. Don't quote me on this. On another note, sat loops looking very impressive right now. Especially on the NW side of the center and the expanse to the w - sw. It's a very large cylcone already. I read something in another thread about it showing even stronger tropical characteristics this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think its silly of NHC to rely on the local WFOs to issue their own warnings north of where they are now... as in no more trop storm warnings or watches north of the current ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I read something in another thread about it showing even stronger tropical characteristics this morning. Yea via the temperature differential in the center being higher, around 10c atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think its silly of NHC to rely on the local WFOs to issue their own warnings north of where they are now... as in no more trop storm warnings or watches north of the current ones I'm not sure that's what that meant but maybe. It might still be too early for nhc stuff further up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeedaSnowday Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I am befuddled over some folks that think this will be a minor weather event... claiming they never lose power and think they are in the clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTHunter Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Sorry if this belongs in the banter thread, but where are you guys getting your "point and click" info from? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yeah it's the NAM but lawdy that's a lot of QPF through 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NAM would be pretty nasty around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NAM would be pretty nasty around here. Would be a damaging event per the nam irt freshwater flooding and power outages, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Keeps dumping tons of rain over us and to our immediate north. The mountains get clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Pretty much the whole area in the 5-10" QPF totals through 69 with more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Sorry if this belongs in the banter thread, but where are you guys getting your "point and click" info from? TIA When you go to the main LWX page on NWS... click on the county you are in on the map located on the front page... aka point and click. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Where is the center making landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I am befuddled over some folks that think this will be a minor weather event... claiming they never lose power and think they are in the clear. As long as most people make sensible preps we'll be fine. I'm waiting for the local news to start honking about widespread wind gusts = to the derecho but will last for hours and not 15 minutes. THAT is a headline that will get folks attention much better than NHC advisories. It's too early to say with certainty that inland will see widespread 60mph+ but we're getting awful close to that being a safe call. I said this already once but it's good advice for anyone wondering what they should be doing: Fill cars with gas Have enough batteries for what you need Have propane for your grill Check oil and test run your generator (if you have one) Buy an inverter for your car if you "gotta have 120v" for something important Remove anything and everything from your yard that could take flight Buy a bunch of ice (freezing gallon jugs right now is a good call or even 5 gal bucket if you can fit it). Block ice lasts much longer than cubes. Inspect trees in your yard for weakness and if you are worried about one falling on your house do not sleep upstairs. Park cars out of harms way from trees Thoroughly clear out the area around your 2 nearest stormdrains One strategy for the fridge is to move everything you need for a couple days into a cooler and place 3-4 frozen gallon jugs on the top shelf. You can keep temps good for 48 hours that way. Gotta do it before you lose power though. There is really not that much else you can do. Protect life and property from a worse case scenario and be ready for a long duration power outage. Outside of that there is nothing else you can do except watch and enjoy some crazy ass weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Where is the center making landfall? On the 12Z NAM, appears to be southern to central NJ and then drifts around over southern PA/northern MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm not sure that's what that meant but maybe. It might still be too early for nhc stuff further up. They use the word 'warning' in the present tense, and sounds like NHC had a call with impacted WFOs early this morning with decision, which was why PHI went out with watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I am befuddled over some folks that think this will be a minor weather event... claiming they never lose power and think they are in the clear. I don't know about that... For folks away from the coast and not on creeks - and particularly for those inside DC/Balt cities, I don't see why this should be any more than a couple of rainy, breezy days - just over a wider area than usual. Or am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 A radius of 50 miles around ACY is the best fit for LF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NAM appears to be snow at the end....just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I don't know about that... For folks away from the coast and not on creeks - and particularly for those inside DC/Balt cities, I don't see why this should be any more than a couple of rainy, breezy days - just over a wider area than usual. Or am I missing something? That's the wild card. We've all had 5-10" of rain in a relatively short period so everybody should know exactly what to expect with their backyard or local creek. I think the wind is tough to estimate. There is a massive difference between 40-45mph gusts and 60-65mph gusts. The derecho was no joke. It broke a lot of things. And extended period of derecho-like conditions should be taken quite seriously. You already know there are going to be idiots driving around (or walking around) to check it out at the peak and there will likely be a darwin award nominee or 2 come out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NAM appears to be snow at the end....just sayin The surface freezing line is in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The surface freezing line is in Canada. The rates will overcome the bl issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The surface freezing line is in Canada. 2m temps for JYO are 31.1 and all others below zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 2m temps for JYO are 31.1 and all others below zero Just reading the text...carry on fellas...back to looking at the angry ocean down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Meso models (WRF, NAM) are very quick to wrap cold air into the south side of the storm ... with the large wind field being efficient enough to advect colder air into the higher terrain of VA even before the storm is fully captured. Will have to watch the globals and see what they do over the next 24-36 hours ... but the potential is there for A LOT of snow in the West Virginia and parts of the Virginia higher terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think the wind is tough to estimate. There is a massive difference between 40-45mph gusts and 60-65mph gusts. The derecho was no joke. It broke a lot of things. And extended period of derecho-like conditions should be taken quite seriously. You already know there are going to be idiots driving around (or walking around) to check it out at the peak and there will likely be a darwin award nominee or 2 come out of this. I was trying to remember the peaks and duration for the derecho. My recollection was that it lasted at its most vicious for about 30-45 minutes, and the winds were 60ish. 24+ hours of even 40+ is going to be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 What comes to mind looking at the NAM is Agnes(1972) X2 in water and X4 in area affected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 This is 100% for humor and solely to show how aggressive the NAM with CAA on the backside of this system. 12z NAM BUFKIT valid 9Z Tuesday at KCHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 They use the word 'warning' in the present tense, and sounds like NHC had a call with impacted WFOs early this morning with decision, which was why PHI went out with watches. i guess dr maeu was wrong with hurr warnings from maine to nc. not shocking at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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