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Hurricane Sandy


Wonderdog

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Flood watch, you guys

FLOOD WATCH

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

439 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

DCZ001-MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-VAZ054-271645-

/O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0003.121029T0600Z-121030T1200Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-

HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-

ANNE ARUNDEL-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...

GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...ALEXANDRIA...

FALLS CHURCH

439 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA.

* FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* SANDY IS PROJECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATE MONDAY SOMEWHERE

BETWEEN THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THIS IS

EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES IN THE

I-95 METROPOLITAN CORRIDOR. THIS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR

FLOODING.

* EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD CAUSE CREEKS AND STREAMS TO RISE

QUICKLY OUT OF THEIR BANKS AND FLOOD LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS.

DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS MAIN STEM RIVERS

COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING DURING MIDWEEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON

CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE

FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE

PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

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SANDY HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF

020/09. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS

SANDY WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A

DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SHARP

NORTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST IS EXPECTED AFTER 48

HOURS AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVING

INTO THE CAROLINAS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN

THE GUIDANCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL...BUT THE MOST

NOTABLE TREND THIS CYCLE IS TOWARD A FASTER MOTION AS THE CYCLONE

TURNS NORTHWESTWARD. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED IN THAT

DIRECTION AND SHOWS THE CENTER INLAND AT 72 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE

NEW NHC TRACK IS ALONG THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE

ECMWF AND THE GFS THROUGH 72 HOURS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT STRUCTURE AND LANDFALL LOCATION...SANDY IS

EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE WITH SIGNIFICANT

IMPACTS EXTENDING WELL AWAY FROM THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER.

NOTE THAT WIND HAZARDS FOR SANDY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING

AREA ARE BEING HANDLED BY HIGH WIND...STORM...AND GALE WATCHES AND

WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

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Flash Flood Watch here..no wind advisories. PHL has one for their forecast area. KInda odd, but maybe LWX is thinking we're outside the watch window? Eh, I dunno, but I'm sure these guys got a handle on it. Looks like the worst for us is Monday PM into Tuesday afternoon

I don't see why basically all of Maryland wouldn't have High wind watches. Only need Sustained at 40mph for 3 hrs and/or gust to 58mph+, both which I think is likely.

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Flash Flood Watch here..no wind advisories. PHL has one for their forecast area. KInda odd, but maybe LWX is thinking we're outside the watch window? Eh, I dunno, but I'm sure these guys got a handle on it. Looks like the worst for us is Monday PM into Tuesday afternoon

Don't worry. I just issued a travelers advisory

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So models had this as about a 972mb at 8am and it is 957mb. Wonder how that will change things.

If I recall correctly, the Euro has been modeling the storm stronger and shows a further South solution. My guess would be that a stronger system will not be as sensitive to the upper level winds that swing the storm far out to the East before the recurve.

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If I recall correctly, the Euro has been modeling the storm stronger and shows a further South solution. My guess would be that a stronger system will not be as sensitive to the upper level winds that swing the storm far out to the East before the recurve.

Wouldn't that same logic make it harder for the trough to capture it?

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Wouldn't that same logic make it harder for the trough to capture it?

Not sure about the pressure part but the tropical vs exptropical means a lot irt to track and capture. From what I read, if the storm maintains trop characteristics longer then it will take longer to phase.

The one think I keep weeding through threads in is what happens if it's stronger but xtropical? I think someone said the phase happens earlier and it makes the turn earlier. Don't quote me on this.

On another note, sat loops looking very impressive right now. Especially on the NW side of the center and the expanse to the w - sw. It's a very large cylcone already.

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