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Hurricane Sandy


Wonderdog

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Has a tropical system ever evolved into a pseudo nor'easter and provided snow before?

yes! The one I remember was November of either 79 or 80. It gave the Pittsburgh area a surprise afternoon snow storm. It was during finals week at PSU for the Fall semester. I was caught in the stalled traffic trying to commute to the New Ken campus for an exam. Forecast was for rain, but it was all snow. PennDOT was not ready to say the least.

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Gosh Wes, I know you are retired but sure do hope you share your thoughts

this week. It seems that more of the dispassionate members are posting

that the extreme example has a 5% to 10% probability of occurring.

My hunch is that that the storm-beast can at least draw down some cold air for the

first half of November even if a monster hybrid-cane never comes together to

thread the needle and obliterate Connecticut.

The models and gfs ensembles are all over the place with various solutions. The blocking over srn greenland is a nice touch and says we should be interested in the potential during the period. However, so far out, it's really risky falling in love with a scenario taking a tropical system and having it get captured by a strong trough. It happens (ie Agnes) but not very often. I'll be watching it and may even do a CWG article on it late in the week if the storm still looks possible. Right now it's best to just have fun with it like you would any other day 7 forecast.

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:lmao: you thought i was kidding, snow on the pumpkins FTW

I figured you were setting the winter mood. At least getting snubbed the rest of the winter this year would hurt less after a 2 foot October storm.

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Ellinwood just went all in. He just texted me and is in for 90mph gusts with heavy snow with periods of sleet mixed it. Total accums of 8 to 12". I'm pumped.

Which would make you happier?

1) if the euro verified

2) if Obama wins.

3) or are these questions too political and liable to bring in too much PR trolling?

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:lmao: you thought i was kidding, snow on the pumpkins FTW

I figured you were setting the winter mood. At least getting snubbed the rest of the winter this year would hurt less after a 2 foot October storm.

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The snow part is pretty much a fantasy (of course just stating obvious) but a high impact event really isn't fantasy at all. It's not unreasonable to think that a trough can suck in a storm like this. It's quite possible. The ingredients have to be in the right place at the right time. In this case, it's really not all that complicated.

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The models and gfs ensembles are all over the place with various solutions. The blocking over srn greenland is a nice touch and says we should be interested in the potential during the period. However, so far out, it's really risky falling in love with a scenario taking a tropical system and having it get captured by a strong trough. It happens (ie Agnes) but not very often. I'll be watching it and may even do a CWG article on it late in the week if the storm still looks possible. Right now it's best to just have fun with it like you would any other day 7 forecast.

Let me ask - with no intent of offense - at this point, with this set up, do you think winter weather experts or tropical experts, would have the most helpful insights? I am guessing tropical, as that's what has to happen first, but then the phasing would require a more winter-centric perspective.

Just asking as I'm trying to judge which perspectives across the various threads to weight more heavily this far in advance - your expertise, of course, is always humbling!

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