Don Cherry's Jacket Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I could be wrong, but recall hearing about a 67(?) mph gust at Martin State Airport at around 1:30 a.m. That could be right. Some of the GA airports will gen punished here. If BWI is the peak gust airport in this storm, the BW corridor will be in a wold of hurt. ACY numbers should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think he is saying it could be worse given Isabel is remembered as the last bad tropical storm around here (Irene was a joke). Irene really wasn't that bad even here in Hampton, VA. I guess I was lucky to be on the left side this time as opposed to the right side with Isabel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Could we see TS Watches/Warnings from NHC up here? Or will they likely be handled by local WFOs with wind advisories and high wind warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 that makes for a raw evening in the panhandle. Yeah, didn't realize wind chill factor could be a consideration with a tropical system coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 This isn't Isabel. Isabel landed in NC and went to WV. They had lots of flooding in Maryland due to the storm surge. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Lol Hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I know it's early, but any preliminary guesses on whether area schools will be in session Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Could we see TS Watches/Warnings from NHC up here? Or will they likely be handled by local WFOs with wind advisories and high wind warnings? Given they restrengthen to hurricane I'd think some areas would get hurricane watches/warnings if it doesn't flop. Maue irresponsibly tweeted that Maine to NC would get them which doesn't seem at all logical based on the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 That inversion looks strong enough to put a sizable damper on any winds that try to mix down. This, I've been looking at the bufkit output from the GFS and that inversion kills any seriously damaging winds that want to come down. Edit: Although with the amount of force at play, it mechanical forces might do the trick in isolated spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Given they restrengthen to hurricane I'd think some areas would get hurricane watches/warnings if it doesn't flop. Maue irresponsibly tweeted that Maine to NC would get them which doesn't seem at all logical based on the forecast. True... we havent had hurricane warnings up in our area in a long time... I believe Isabel was the last time Hurricane Watches or warnings made it up into the Chesapeake Bay or Tidal Potomac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Only gusted to 48 at IAD during Isabel. DCA 58, BWI 54, Andrews 66. This has the full post mortem on winds, lowest pressures...etc http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003isabel.shtml Just a few grabs: Quantico 77mph (67 kts) Andrews 69 mph (60 kts) Richmond 72 mph (63 kts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Given they restrengthen to hurricane I'd think some areas would get hurricane watches/warnings if it doesn't flop. Maue irresponsibly tweeted that Maine to NC would get them which doesn't seem at all logical based on the forecast. I think there'll be an extension up to the mouth of the bay at least by 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Interesting that the 00z early guidance moved south even more... even if it is by a little bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Interesting that the 00z early guidance moved south even more... even if it is by a little bit Yoda, where do you get those maps? I have a similar one, but it has fewer models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yoda, where do you get those maps? I have a similar one, but it has fewer models. http://models.weatherbell.com/ Just click the image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 http://models.weatherbell.com/ Just click the image Image click didn't work for some reason. Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Interesting that the 00z early guidance moved south even more... even if it is by a little bit So the trend is moving back to the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 SmartCast Update: 27/01Z – 28/01Z Currently Tracking for the next 24 hours two areas. Melbourne/Daytona Beach Zone with potential for wind gusts up to 45-50mph from now through 05Z. Next area is the Wilmington and Cherry Point Areas with heavy rainfall accumulations of 1.28 to 1.8” through 28 at 01Z. Seeing heavy rain accumulations beginning around 17-18Z, with convection and with winds up to 35mph and hourly rain accumulation of around .20” per hour to start. SmartCast Output: http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 So the trend is moving back to the Delmarva. Perhaps... we shall see what the early suite shows us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think there'll be an extension up to the mouth of the bay at least by 11. I'm not sold they'll put up hurricane watches as its pretty marginal tho I kinda think that's why they forecast it back there before landfall .. So they can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm not sold they'll put up hurricane watches as its pretty marginal tho I kinda think that's why they forecast it back there before landfall .. So they can. The HPC said the public was too stupid so they'll keep this Nor'easter storm a hurricane with a name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm not sold they'll put up hurricane watches as its pretty marginal tho I kinda think that's why they forecast it back there before landfall .. So they can. They will probably put up TS Watches just to make sure people pay some attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 00z NAM FWIW makes landfall at Sandy Hook, NJ. Irony is cruel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 For posterity: NAM Landfall Northern NJ-backs into central PA, fills and hangs in north/central PA with 850 line to the coast (for JI) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 00z NAM FWIW makes landfall at Sandy Hook, NJ. Irony is cruel. Plus 5-10 inches of rain through 84 with a lot more to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Perhaps... we shall see what the early suite shows us Do you have any data on global vs. hurricane-specific model performance in this type of situation? Or does this type of situation not exist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 11 pm track http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1812W5_NL+gif/025440W5_NL_sm.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 No new watches and warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Interesting the new NHC maps don't reflect Sandy as post-tropical at any point. That must be an error, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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