yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 60-80 mph gusts is impressive for being this far inland. Indeed it would be... very intrig7uing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The mets all agreed last night that the NJ track is actually much worse for us in terms of wind than the direct hit, which would be rather dull in comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Indeed it would be... very intrig7uing Yes, that would be quite impressive (and bad). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The mets all agreed last night that the NJ track is actually much worse for us in terms of wind than the direct hit, which would be rather dull in comparison. I don't think dull - just that there would be a lull after the initial push. With the NJ hit I don't think we get a lull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm not sure how much I'd take those sfc maps verbatim but there is certainly potential with the winds off the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The mets all agreed last night that the NJ track is actually much worse for us in terms of wind than the direct hit, which would be rather dull in comparison. That's pretty much the impression I had. A landfall around, say, central NJ may give us somewhat less rain (still 3"+ though, I believe?), but sustained tropical or nearly tropical storm force winds with higher gusts would be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Not much change to the 5pm cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I do not get Tony Pann here: "It means for us we will get some very heavy rain, wind gusts 40 to 50 miles per hour, two to maybe six inches of rain, but we would be more likely to get some snow on the bottom side of the storm, as it wraps the cold air in on the bottom of the storm," Pann told Maryland's News Now. " Just...no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I do not get Tony Pann here: "It means for us we will get some very heavy rain, wind gusts 40 to 50 miles per hour, two to maybe six inches of rain, but we would be more likely to get some snow on the bottom side of the storm, as it wraps the cold air in on the bottom of the storm," Pann told Maryland's News Now. " Just...no well if you take the thermal profile of yesterdays Euro, and combine it with the track of todays Euro...then I suppose you can get that conclusion LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 well if you take the thermal profile of yesterdays Euro, and combine it with the track of todays Euro...then I suppose you can get that conclusion LOL Sorry to banter on this thread, but that comment from Pann is irresponsible in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Personally getting very concerned about the northern areas of this subforum (KCHO and north mainly). Taking the GFS verbatim ... keeping in mind that this is NORTH of the ECMWF ... gusts well over 60pmh are possible even in the lowest elevations with mixing from 925mb or so. This kind of wind alone and bring down trees and when you combine this with rainfall the problem is only aggravated. Also, I have seen the "leaves on trees" argument being tossed around as support of wind damage. I am personally skeptical of this as the leaves are about ready to fall. Instead of "catching" the wind, I am betting most of them will likely just get blown off. If this had happened 2 or 3 weeks ago then it might be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 Since it is still two days or so out, seems like that's plenty of time for more changes in the track. When a storm is "captured" by another storm or trough, is it simply a matter of a merging of the two storms or is it more involved than that? And does the capture alter the track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 As for the snow potential ... and again this is 100% my opinion only ... a more northern track would increase the chances for the higher terrain of much of western VA (including the Blue Ridge and the Drive) to see some flakes. FWIW, 12z GFS BUFKIT verbatim at KCHO would ALMOST support some wintry mix of RN/IP/SN Tuesday evening. Edited to add KCHO ICAO ID in the BUFKIT comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Not much change to the 5pm cone. Yeah, saw that. If anything, the way it's drawn on that graphic, it looks like they're showing a sharper (more sudden?) turn to the west. Notice the apparent big "jump" between 2PM Monday out over the Atlantic, east of WAL, then suddenly it's over BAL at 2PM Tuesday. That could just be perspective of the map and where they put the points. Interpolating (sort of), the landfall would be about the same as what they showed earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Personally getting very concerned about the northern areas of this subforum (KCHO and north mainly). Taking the GFS verbatim ... keeping in mind that this is NORTH of the ECMWF ... gusts well over 60pmh are possible even in the lowest elevations with mixing from 925mb or so. This kind of wind alone and bring down trees and when you combine this with rainfall the problem is only aggravated. Also, I have seen the "leaves on trees" argument being tossed around as support of wind damage. I am personally skeptical of this as the leaves are about ready to fall. Instead of "catching" the wind, I am betting most of them will likely just get blown off. If this had happened 2 or 3 weeks ago then it might be a different story. I don't know that I agree with the leaves comment. Standing in my backyard, and the majority of the oak leaves are still green. Mid-nov is our peak raking period. That being said, this summer was so dry and hot that the canopy was pretty thin compared to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I don't know that I agree with the leaves comment. Standing in my backyard, and the majority of the oak leaves are still green. Mid-nov is our peak raking period. That being said, this summer was so dry and hot that the canopy was pretty thin compared to normal. Wow really? I stand corrected. They have been gradually falling here for about a week now roughly. Most of the back yard needs to be raked actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wow really? I stand corrected. They have been gradually falling here for about a week now roughly. Most of the back yard needs to be raked actually. Most of the leaves here at MU are still on the trees also. Some, not all. It's about half and half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Most of the leaves here at MU are still on the trees also. Some, not all. It's about half and half. Wow, it must be my local location then. Looking out the window now and I can't see a single green leaf. Pretty sure 70% are just "hanging" gauging by the leaf drop over the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COBRIEN85 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 There falling like snow here in Charlottesville, raked and mulched the yard here yesterday and the front is covered again already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wow, it must be my local location then. Looking out the window now and I can't see a single green leaf. Pretty sure 70% are just "hanging" gauging by the leaf drop over the last couple of days. I'd say over 75% of the leaves here are down or just waiting for a good gust to fall, but even with a light canopy I'm still staking my two younger trees this weekend. The isobars on the surface maps look bad enough, but potentially 12 to 18 hours of it? Crazy. If this qualifies as banter, feel free to delete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS sticks with the NNJ/NYC idea, brings it back through PA, looks pretty qpf loaded up that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 About 12 hours with 50kt winds at 950mb on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 2m temps off Raleigh (18z GFS run) have us in 30s for basically the duration... which is going to suck with the wind as MN Transplant posted above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 18z NOGAPS is hilarious.... comes in C NJ or so in 940s (overdone)... and moves SW and basiclly stalls and sits over S PA/MD for a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 18z NOGAPS is hilarious.... comes in C NJ or so in 940s (overdone)... and moves SW and basiclly stalls and sits over S PA/MD for a day how's that different than the 18z GFS which landfalls ~949 and hangs out in PA for 24+ hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Gfs close to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Gfs close to snow Credit quakertown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Prelim Summary of IMPACTS for Central MD: Most of you that are fans of this page are from the Central MD area so thats what Im giving impacts for...If you live in Southern PA, these impacts will be similar. Here we go. My own personal opinion is that Sandy makes landfall between Atlantic City and Toms River NJ. This means surge for the west side of the bay will NOT be a huge concern, though some flooding... due to high tides and choppy waters cannot be ruled out. I also expect between 4 and 6 inches of rain in Central MD, so there is the strong potential for low lying flooding from freshwater, so this still does not leave places like Millers Island and Bowleys Quarters out of the woods, because of how low they sit. Winds: the majority of the area will likely experience 40-60 mph sustained winds for 12-24 HOURS. with gusts possibly to 80 mph. This long duration wind and heavy rain will likely result in many trees coming down, resulting in many power outages. I can not rule out that we see the most power outages we have EVER seen before, including Isabelle and the DERECHO. Questions? I posted this on my site...Its prelim and Im open to criticism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Credit quakertown Terra Alta, WV, Snowshoe, WV, Keyser Ridge, MD, top 3 in snowfall in this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 is that snow map a trick or treat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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