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Hurricane Sandy

Wonderdog

By Wonderdog,
in Mid Atlantic

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Avdave

Avdave

Posted
Posted

As of this morning, I thought maybe ACY to ctrl NJ as preliminary with cone from near ACY to LI. But, I'm gonna wait until all 12z guidance comes in, but I'd say the Delmarva is becoming increasingly interesting as of now.

If the euro is right, DC gets a big front end thump, but then conditions calm a bit as the low approaches. It's actually worse to the south of DC with rain.wind combo on the euro believe it or not. However winds would be worse like WAL-ACY.

Thanks. I like the ACY-WAL corridor for a landfall. Maybe up to Belmar, NJ. Still too early as she chugs along. Thanks for your input bro.

6z GFDL not the 929mb it had last night but 936mb

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

I think they have a more complete suite of guidance. That also might contain FSU super ensembles guidance?

Almost every model on there is south of NYC barring the BAMS... seems like the mean would be Delaware Bay for this set, which would following along with the EURO and NOGAPS (and GFDL if we felt like including it)

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MN Transplant

MN Transplant

Posted
Posted

As of this morning, I thought maybe ACY to ctrl NJ as preliminary with cone from near ACY to LI. But, I'm gonna wait until all 12z guidance comes in, but I'd say the Delmarva is becoming increasingly interesting as of now.

If the euro is right, DC gets a big front end thump, but then conditions calm a bit as the low approaches. It's actually worse to the south of DC with rain.wind combo on the euro believe it or not. However winds would be worse like WAL-ACY.

This is what the GFS continues to show. DC gets the worst winds in a NJ landfall scenario. Other than the purists among us who would love to see the barometer tick down, I think there may actually be some level of disappointment if it tracks right over us.

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Casualbrain

Casualbrain

Posted
Posted

SHIPS data looks interesting from NHC

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2011/rapid.html and http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/nwpmodel/html/nhcmodel.htm#SHIPS

and ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12102612AL1812_ships.txt

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *

* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *

* SANDY AL182012 10/26/12 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

V (KT) NO LAND 70 64 58 52 49 46 48 48 48 50 48 41 26

V (KT) LAND 70 64 58 52 49 46 48 48 48 50 41 31 30

V (KT) LGE mod 70 64 59 55 52 47 44 43 46 46 38 30 30

Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT

SHEAR (KT) 42 42 47 54 52 40 36 28 31 38 33 28 5

SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 8 -3 -2 1 -7 -3 1 11 3 0 0

SHEAR DIR 212 207 195 202 199 182 217 205 171 137 139 106 81

SST © 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.3 27.1 27.0 25.5 21.3 18.0 16.6 15.9

POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 135 134 133 128 126 125 109 83 73 69 68

ADJ. POT. INT. 121 117 115 115 115 111 109 106 92 73 67 65 63

200 MB T © -51.3 -50.9 -50.9 -50.6 -51.5 -50.9 -51.4 -51.4 -51.8 -51.4 -49.8 -50.2 -52.3

TH_E DEV © 5 6 5 4 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0

700-500 MB RH 63 57 55 56 52 47 53 57 49 50 60 74 77

GFS VTEX (KT) 34 37 36 35 37 41 43 41 42 48 51 47 35

850 MB ENV VOR 212 224 231 206 208 215 224 246 294 348 391 421 400

200 MB DIV 161 142 86 85 77 112 105 39 52 67 39 44 3

700-850 TADV 21 15 6 1 -10 -15 -2 -11 -17 -19 23 21 -3

LAND (KM) 323 287 262 314 369 478 402 342 313 167 -13 -149 -282

LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.0 27.5 28.1 28.7 30.3 32.1 34.2 36.3 37.8 38.6 39.7 40.8

LONG(DEG W) 76.9 77.2 77.5 77.2 76.8 75.4 73.6 72.5 72.3 73.3 75.3 76.8 77.6

STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 7 8 11 12 11 9 8 9 7 6

HEAT CONTENT 31 40 43 37 39 9 0 14 35 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7

T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=623)

GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5)

% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE

6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

----------------------------------------------------------

SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.

SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -20. -23. -26.

VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -14. -19. -25. -27. -27. -26. -26. -26. -25. -21.

VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1.

VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2.

PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1.

200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12.

THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -26.

700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.

GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 5. 6. 11. 13. 9. -2.

850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 17. 20. 24. 28. 29.

200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4.

850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.

ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.

STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.

DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.

GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1.

OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.

----------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -21. -24. -22. -22. -22. -20. -22. -29. -44.

** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/26/12 12 UTC **

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3

850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 47.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0

STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8

D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5

POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2

850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3

Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0

% area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%)

Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%)

Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%)

Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/26/2012 12 UTC **

TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)

CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY

PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

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Don Cherry's Jacket

Don Cherry's Jacket

Posted
Posted

This is what the GFS continues to show. DC gets the worst winds in a NJ landfall scenario. Other than the purists among us who would love to see the barometer tick down, I think there may actually be some level of disappointment if it tracks right over us.

But a direct hit would give higher rain I would think. I haven't had a chance to check the latest precip forecasts, but I would think NJ = more wind damage and Bullseye= rain/flooding damage.

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usedtobe

usedtobe

Posted
Posted

"Not happy" meaning "bummed out" or meaning "disagree"?

Bummed out, I'd love it to give the rev kev his storm. Keep it away from mby. Personally, I don't think that is likely and the southern creep of the euro says to me we probably are in trouble as a hit even in central NJ would be bad one that tracks the low almost over us would also be bad. The farther south the track the more likely we are to have serious coastal issues on the west side of the bay

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