mappy Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah, he was saying that on the show last night I wasn't able to listen in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Well, on the radio show last night, Scott mentioned that the Euro is phase happy...too early or something along those lines. I just have never seen the amazing consistency (landfall area)...it has wavered beyond 50-100 miles so far. Have to wonder though if this is less a question of being phase happy and more a question of the strength of the blocking - I guess they are all related. I too am taken aback by how consistent the ECM has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I wasn't able to listen in me either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Have to wonder though if this is less a question of being phase happy and more a question of the strength of the blocking - I guess they are all related. I too am taken aback by how consistent the ECM has been. i don't really ever watch TWC, but last night my wife had it on and i thought the guy did a great job explaining the blocking that was going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 HPC rain map is JUICED up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Well, on the radio show last night, Scott mentioned that the Euro is phase happy...too early or something along those lines. I just have never seen the amazing consistency (landfall area)...it has wavered beyond 50-100 miles so far. Part of this reason is that block. Basically euro is also saying it has nowhere to go, but back W. I still think it's too far s and w, but we'll see what today brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I wonder if the GFS wouldn't give us stronger winds, but the Euro be more problematic because of the wind direction. Goes back to what Ian and others were discussing yesterday about the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Well damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 amazing how you guys think the EURO is too far West and South but it has shown the same solution pretty much for 10-12 straight runs.....Delmarva Landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 amazing how you guys think the EURO is too far West and South but it has shown the same solution pretty much for 10-12 straight runs.....Delmarva Landfall What's amazing is people are doing what they're supposed to be doing and trying to figure out why a model solution might be right or wrong instead of taking it verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 amazing how you guys think the EURO is too far West and South but it has shown the same solution pretty much for 10-12 straight runs.....Delmarva Landfall no less amazing, really, when we think it's too far north with snow in the winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Ok, quick morning summary, please add to it: 00z ECMWF: Monday afternoon, 932mb, Wallops Is. 00z ECMWF ensemble mean: Monday evening, Central/Southern NJ 06z GFS: Tuesday morning, 952mb, western Long Island 06z GFS ensemble mean: Overnight Mon/Tue, Central NJ 06z HWRF: Late Monday evening, sub-930, Ocean City 06z GFDL: Monday noon, 933mb, just south of Wallops Is. 00z canadian: Maine 00z NOGAPS: southern NJ 06z NAM: kidding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I wasn't able to listen in me either Here: http://www.blogtalkr...25/frankenstorm Just click the "play in your default player" and you should be good to go. I listened to it after the fact last night when I got home from work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Ok, quick morning summary, please add to it: 00z ECMWF: Monday afternoon, 932mb, Wallops Is. 00z ECMWF ensemble mean: Monday evening, Central/Southern NJ 06z GFS: Tuesday morning, 952mb, western Long Island 06z GFS ensemble mean: Overnight Mon/Tue, Central NJ 06z HWRF: Late Monday evening, sub-930, Ocean City 06z GFDL: Monday noon, 933mb, just south of Wallops Is. 00z canadian: Maine 00z NOGAPS: southern NJ 06z NAM: kidding! Based on that summary, I'd say the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay to about central NJ is the target. Maine and LI seem to be outliers. Isn't a cone stretching between those two points the typical level of uncertainty for a hurricane landfall forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I wasn't able to listen in Wes likes farther south with a hit somewhere from delmarva northward to Long Island or NY. He's not happy that the euro keep trended south almost every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Ok, quick morning summary, please add to it: 00z ECMWF: Monday afternoon, 932mb, Wallops Is. 00z ECMWF ensemble mean: Monday evening, Central/Southern NJ 06z GFS: Tuesday morning, 952mb, western Long Island 06z GFS ensemble mean: Overnight Mon/Tue, Central NJ 06z HWRF: Late Monday evening, sub-930, Ocean City 06z GFDL: Monday noon, 933mb, just south of Wallops Is. 00z canadian: Maine 00z NOGAPS: southern NJ 06z NAM: kidding! I'd love to see a pinned post with this list updated as appropriate. Good stuff, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wes likes farther south with a hit somewhere from delmarva northward to Long Island or NY. He's not happy that the euro keep trended south almost every run. I like how you jut talked about yourself in the third person Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wes likes farther south with a hit somewhere from delmarva northward to Long Island or NY. He's not happy that the euro keep trended south almost every run. "Not happy" meaning "bummed out" or meaning "disagree"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The 8 am NHC advisory showed that Sandy decelerated further overnight. Sandy is now tracking NW at just 10 mph. Its slower forward motion is increasing the likelihood that it will be captured farther south. While the GFS/GFS ensembles can't be dismissed just yet and Sandy could still make landfall somewhere from the VA Capes to northern NJ, my guess is that the Delmarva to southern NJ offers the highest probability at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 "Not happy" meaning "bummed out" or meaning "disagree"? Given Wes's proximity to water, I think he means "bummed out"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Given Wes's proximity to water, I think he means "bummed out"... H2O agrees with Wes that a Euro track could have significant impacts to Wes's area and many others so if one doesn't want trees down and loss of power root for a NJ landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 H2O agrees with Wes that a Euro track could have significant impacts to Wes's area and many others so if one doesn't want trees down and loss of power root for a NJ landfall. And NE Balt Zen agrees and thinks the SW side of the storm will give a nice boost to owners of the world renowned Row Boats 'R Us franchises and sales would be up sharply in that event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 H2O agrees with Wes that a Euro track could have significant impacts to Wes's area and many others so if one doesn't want trees down and loss of power root for a NJ landfall. Given the size of the wind spread here, I'm not sure NJ will cut it to avoid that result, although it would be less. I'm thinking that a ACY-ish landfall with a western track will be unpleasant for the 95 corridor all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I would agree that Wes needs a bigger boat (and many of us may just plain end up needing a boat). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Than Wes may not like 12z tropical models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Than Wes may not like 12z tropical models. Hey Scooter, Are you readjusting your landfall cone from up north to further south now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sandy looks like an occluded low with a secondary..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It's like 09-10 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Hey Scooter, Are you readjusting your landfall cone from up north to further south now? As of this morning, I thought maybe ACY to ctrl NJ as preliminary with cone from near ACY to LI. But, I'm gonna wait until all 12z guidance comes in, but I'd say the Delmarva is becoming increasingly interesting as of now. If the euro is right, DC gets a big front end thump, but then conditions calm a bit as the low approaches. It's actually worse to the south of DC with rain.wind combo on the euro believe it or not. However winds would be worse like WAL-ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Than Wes may not like 12z tropical models. Oh? WHat do they show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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