Hurricane Sandy

[stormtracker]

Euro prettty hardcore insistent. Other models have wavered almost every run. Starting to get a feeling that the Euro may be wrong this time?

[Ellinwood]

NHC continues the south trend in the 5am update...

[H2O]

Euro prettty hardcore insistent. Other models have wavered almost every run. Starting to get a feeling that the Euro may be wrong this time?

Wrong or right? Second run in a row with a eastern shore hit. S trend stopping for now and a hit from Va to NJ is looking more and more likely

[smokeybandit]

Is the Euro's consistency almost "too" consistent?

[MidlothianWX]

Is the Euro's consistency almost "too" consistent?

Would you rather bet on the model that is flopping hundreds of miles from run to run or one that has been steadfast in its convictions?

6z GFS still coming in far E.

[weatherwonder]

Would you rather bet on the model that is flopping hundreds of miles from run to run or one that has been steadfast in its convictions?

6z GFS still coming in far E.

I thought that the rule was- if Euro holds the course over several days, and does not lip flop, it is King.

[North Balti Zen]

Is the Euro's consistency almost "too" consistent?

If this were a snowstorm, and the Euro had held this many runs in a row while the GFS bounced around hundreds of miles run to run, and we were counting on the GFS to help us, I know how confident I would feel about the GFS. Not very.

As I continue to understand it, it comes down to which of the models has correctly modeled the block. The 0z GFS last night and 6z GFS again this morning weaken the block allowing the storm to get pretty far NE before strengthening the block and turning it back to the west.

The Euro keeps the block strong earlier and the hard west turns comes over us.

Got me as to which is "right". I think, in the end, the blocking is indeed strong, which means someone gets the storm head on, and then it moves due west.

And I am pretty sure it won't be a 930 monster when it does. Likely overdone, but obviously even 960 or so storm would be catastrophic wherever landfall occurs.

[TalcottWx]

Think a little of over analyzing is going on. Significant effects for us would likely occur with either the GFS or EURO track anyways. If you really wanted to hang onto the EURO as a MidAtl weenie, then just say how consistent its been. If you want to hang onto the GFS despite its inconsistencies, you would talk about how its a 'trend'. Either way NJ-Maine has significant coastal impacts likely. WInd field is massive.

[North Balti Zen]

sbos, I know you are not from around here, but a bunch of us have friends/family with homes etc. over around Ocean City/Rehobeth etc. The interest in this isn't just casual. I would prefer it come ashore in NJ or somewhere further north. I am not "rooting" for Ocean City to be wiped off the map or whatever crazed language people use when talking about a 930ish hurricane coming ashore around there.

So I don't really see "over-analyzing" as a relevant critique for a weather board with a once in 40 years or so storm in the area.

ETA: Plus, our region's Sandy thread is at a mere 26 pages. With 14 more in banter. The NE thread is on iteration #3. Maybe you can keep hanging out up there with their measured three times as much apparently not over-analysis and hold Kev's hand and whatevs....

[TL97]

6Z GFS has the system staling over Philly for 12 hours then going back north into New England

[Fozz]

Euro has the storm passing just south of DC @ 968

[TalcottWx]

sbos, I know you are not from around here, but a bunch of us have friends/family with homes etc. over around Ocean City/Rehobeth etc. The interest in this isn't just casual. I would prefer it come ashore in NJ or somewhere further north. I am not "rooting" for Ocean City to be wiped off the map or whatever crazed language people use when talking about a 930ish hurricane coming ashore around there.

So I don't really see "over-analyzing" as a relevant critique for a weather board with a once in 40 years or so storm in the area.

I can see you over reacting. Over analyzing is asking if the EURO has been too consistent. Ask me when I downplayed the significance of this event, cause I never have.

[AdamHLG]

In my opinion, the biggest risk of this event not panning out as advertised is not GFS v. Euro track. In fact, its not track at all. Rather, its Sandy's intensity. NHC intensity forecasts are largely uncertain - doesnt NHC always remind us of that? Already this morning there is talk on NHC of a currently weaker Sandy. No more 105 knot...90 knot... It's 75-80 knots for the next 4 days. How much you wanna bet that over the next 48 hours the intensity forecasts drop to 60 knots... 50 knots... etc. If you've been watching these events unfold as long as me, it seems, with very rare exception, that the power of these tropical systems greatly diminish right as we enter this time frame. Keep an eye out for a continuing weakening Sandy in the next update and next 6 or 7 updates. That is my unscientific opinion.

I think we will have stormy weather.The odds of a storm of the magnitude talked about the last few days - - I just dont see it or wanna believe it. I still went out and purchased a generator because to not prepare properly is foolish. But I remain sceptical of the obliterating massive storm.

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

In my opinion, the biggest risk of this event not panning out as advertised is not GFS v. Euro track. In fact, its not track at all. Rather, its Sandy's intensity. NHC intensity forecasts are largely uncertain - doesnt NHC always remind us of that? Already this morning there is talk on NHC of a currently weaker Sandy. No more 105 knot...90 knot... It's 75-80 knots for the next 4 days. How much you wanna bet that over the next 48 hours the intensity forecasts drop to 60 knots... 50 knots... etc. If you've been watching these events unfold as long as me, it seems, with very rare exception, that the power of these tropical systems greatly diminish right as we enter this time frame. Keep an eye out for a continuing weakening Sandy in the next update and next 6 or 7 updates. That is my unscientific opinion.

I think we will have stormy weather.The odds of a storm of the magnitude talked about the last few days - - I just dont see it or wanna believe it. I still went out and purchased a generator because to not prepare properly is foolish. But I remain sceptical of the obliterating massive storm.

Anyone along with water to the north of where Sandy makes landfall is going to be worse off than someone that is south of the location at landfall. The GFS is much different than the Euro with regards to the mid-atlantic. Two completely different scenarios.

[H2O]

In my opinion, the biggest risk of this event not panning out as advertised is not GFS v. Euro track. In fact, its not track at all. Rather, its Sandy's intensity. NHC intensity forecasts are largely uncertain - doesnt NHC always remind us of that? Already this morning there is talk on NHC of a currently weaker Sandy. No more 105 knot...90 knot... It's 75-80 knots for the next 4 days. How much you wanna bet that over the next 48 hours the intensity forecasts drop to 60 knots... 50 knots... etc. If you've been watching these events unfold as long as me, it seems, with very rare exception, that the power of these tropical systems greatly diminish right as we enter this time frame. Keep an eye out for a continuing weakening Sandy in the next update and next 6 or 7 updates. That is my unscientific opinion.

I think we will have stormy weather.The odds of a storm of the magnitude talked about the last few days - - I just dont see it or wanna believe it. I still went out and purchased a generator because to not prepare properly is foolish. But I remain sceptical of the obliterating massive storm.

The problem is that the setup is different for this storm. you are comparing this one to past tropical storms and Sandy will be interacting with other dynamics that are not typical during summer cane times. You could be right but Sandy was expected to weaken some due to shear from an upper level low and then gain some back.

[Wonderdog]

Maybe it's a matter of whether the GFS or the EURO best handles tropical systems? Any history on that?

[Herb@MAWS]

It just seems that over the past, say 15 yrs or so, as I anticipate these events, they usually pan out with a slightly more N-ward track relative to where I sit in Central Md.

My expectation is that this will make landfall to my north, be it N DE, S Jersey or further north. On the flip side, this is an almost unprecedented set-up, so I am still hopeful. Direct hit or not, there will be something for mostly everyone, no doubt. I still keep thinking it could screw everyone and slip out to the NE through that very small channel between the NE HP and the southern jet. Of course the model consensus says not, but there were still a few outliers last nite saying it was a lesser possibilty. Haven't jumped into the morning data yet.

[Kmlwx]

It just seems that over the past, say 15 yrs or so, as I anticipate these events, they usually pan out with a slightly more N-ward track relative to where I sit in Central Md.

My expectation is that this will make landfall to my north, be it N DE, S Jersey or further north. On the flip side, this is an almost unprecedented set-up, so I am still hopeful. Direct hit or not, there will be something for mostly everyone, no doubt. I still keep thinking it could screw everyone and slip out to the NE through that very small channel between the NE HP and the southern jet. Of course the model consensus says not, but there were still a few outliers last nite saying it was a lesser possibilty. Haven't jumped into the morning data yet.

I don't think this has happened within the past 15 years. This is highly anomalous - need to factor in for the fact that a lot of the mets on here have said they are kind of in uncharted territory.

[Bob Chill]

The problem is that the setup is different for this storm. you are comparing this one to past tropical storms and Sandy will be interacting with other dynamics that are not typical during summer cane times. You could be right but Sandy was expected to weaken some due to shear from an upper level low and then gain some back.

Absolutely. In this specific case thinking that a weaker sandy will interpolate downstream as a significantly weaker landfall than what is being shown is precarious at best.

I can understand the thought process fully though because it's true, when tropical systems gain latitutde after leaving the bahama area there is almost never any ingredients to strengthen the system with any significance as it heads north. You can't make that assumption this time. Quite the opposite

You have a strong jet lending a hand and baroclonic enhancement. A good way to think about it is a bombing noreaster. The storm is much weaker as it rides the coast but does nuts north of obx. That's how we need to think of sandy. Not as a tropical system in any traditional sense. That why this is so damn crazy. A tropical system transitioning into an off the charts noreaster right on our heads. Wow. Just wow.

[stormtracker]

Think a little of over analyzing is going on. Significant effects for us would likely occur with either the GFS or EURO track anyways. If you really wanted to hang onto the EURO as a MidAtl weenie, then just say how consistent its been. If you want to hang onto the GFS despite its inconsistencies, you would talk about how its a 'trend'. Either way NJ-Maine has significant coastal impacts likely. WInd field is massive.

If anyone is over analyzing it seems to be you. People are asking legitimate questions. With other models goin north, maybe the Euros consistency is wrong. Maybe experienced mets have seen ashes like this and can offer some insight.

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

In my opinion, the biggest risk of this event not panning out as advertised is not GFS v. Euro track. In fact, its not track at all. Rather, its Sandy's intensity. NHC intensity forecasts are largely uncertain - doesnt NHC always remind us of that? Already this morning there is talk on NHC of a currently weaker Sandy. No more 105 knot...90 knot... It's 75-80 knots for the next 4 days. How much you wanna bet that over the next 48 hours the intensity forecasts drop to 60 knots... 50 knots... etc. If you've been watching these events unfold as long as me, it seems, with very rare exception, that the power of these tropical systems greatly diminish right as we enter this time frame. Keep an eye out for a continuing weakening Sandy in the next update and next 6 or 7 updates. That is my unscientific opinion.

I think we will have stormy weather.The odds of a storm of the magnitude talked about the last few days - - I just dont see it or wanna believe it. I still went out and purchased a generator because to not prepare properly is foolish. But I remain sceptical of the obliterating massive storm.

Part of your statements are true but your failing to realize what exactly we are dealing with and what the players on the field are...Sandy will be a hybrid, transitioning to extratropical soon, barclinic zone will feed into the system and cause the pressure to drop significantly. Although I suspect a large part of the Northeast will experience 50-60 mph winds which would be a big deal, but the larger deal would be the surge where Sandy hits as well as the heavy rain because of how large she will be and how low the pressure will be.

[MidlothianWX]

Absolutely. In this specific case thinking that a weaker sandy will interpolate downstream as a significantly weaker landfall than what is being shown is precarious at best.

I can understand the thought process fully though because it's true, when tropical systems gain latitutde after leaving the bahama area there is almost never any ingredients to strengthen the system with any significance as it heads north. You can't make that assumption this time. Quite the opposite

You have a strong jet lending a hand and baroclonic enhancement. A good way to think about it is a bombing noreaster. The storm is much weaker as it rides the coast but does nuts north of obx. That's how we need to think of sandy. Not as a tropical system in any traditional sense. That why this is so damn crazy. A tropical system transitioning into an off the charts noreaster right on our heads. Wow. Just wow.

Nicely put.

The local news stations here are doing a suprisingly decent job of conveying this by stating that the center of the low track does not matter as much in this case as the average viewer may believe. What is important is the fact that this thing will be hitting the coast somewhere within a few hundred miles of many and that in and of itself will cause issues.

[CoastalWx]

If anyone is over analyzing it seems to be you. People are asking legitimate questions. With other models goin north, maybe the Euros consistency is wrong. Maybe experienced mets have seen ashes like this and can offer some insight.

Not sure anyone has..lol.

While part of me thinks something closer to NHC track may verify...perhaps a bit north of it, there are things to think about.

First, Sandy is a mess right now which was sort of expected at this point. She almost has a second mid level center well ne. Will that do anything?

Secondly, just how abruptly will it turn? That means everything has a slightly less abrupt turn will mean further n and e given the shape of the East Coast. More abrupt and it will be further s and w.

[stormtracker]

ashes...oy...damn iphone

Thanks Scott. NHC track is slightly north of Euro. I still think C NJ is the target.

[TalcottWx]

If anyone is over analyzing it seems to be you. People are asking legitimate questions. With other models goin north, maybe the Euros consistency is wrong. Maybe experienced mets have seen ashes like this and can offer some insight.

I guess I see the EURO's long term consistency over the past days as impressive rather than questionable. It seems that other camps have been playing catchup. At first it was other models catching onto the capture. GFS then caught on and hit sne. Now it seems the GFS has come south to an LI/NYC track. If you blend the two you have New Jersey landfall. I see the friends trends as EURO supremacy not weakness.

I guess I could see the questions though. Even if EURO went north in due time, I would still say EURO caught this before everything else.

[mappy]

ashes...oy...damn iphone

Thanks Scott. NHC track is slightly north of Euro. I still think C NJ is the target.

Adam sent me an email this morning - his landfall thinking is ACY to MTP

[North Balti Zen]

Adam sent me an email this morning - his landfall thinking is ACY to MTP

Katie, out of curiosity, does he then see it tracking W or WSW as has been modeled on the Euro? I ask because I am trying to figure out sensible weather for us from a landfall to our north in this circumstance. Heavy, heavy, oh so heavy rain I think would be the major impact.

[mappy]

Katie, out of curiosity, does he then see it tracking W or WSW as has been modeled on the Euro? I ask because I am trying to figure out sensible weather for us from a landfall to our north in this circumstance. Heavy, heavy, oh so heavy rain I think would be the major impact.

I'm not sure. He is on vacation today and sent a quick email with just his landfall thoughts. If I hear anything else from him, I'll ask and get back you. Maybe he will see this and answer you too

[stormtracker]

Adam sent me an email this morning - his landfall thinking is ACY to MTP

Yeah, he was saying that on the show last night

[stormtracker]

I guess I see the EURO's long term consistency over the past days as impressive rather than questionable. It seems that other camps have been playing catchup. At first it was other models catching onto the capture. GFS then caught on and hit sne. Now it seems the GFS has come south to an LI/NYC track. If you blend the two you have New Jersey landfall. I see the friends trends as EURO supremacy not weakness.

I guess I could see the questions though. Even if EURO went north in due time, I would still say EURO caught this before everything else.

Well, on the radio show last night, Scott mentioned that the Euro is phase happy...too early or something along those lines. I just have never seen the amazing consistency (landfall area)...it has wavered beyond 50-100 miles so far.