Kmlwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It seems to bomb everything out. Not sure how it would work with a transitioning storm anyway as I think it's a tropical model? Even the GFS when it was far off with the center had a pretty hefty 850 wind max in that backside zone. If it's truly going to be historic I want in. It sure seems like that is beginning to be the "consensus" that is building. I'm pretty prepared for this to rival or exceed Isabel in terms of wind here. I'm guessing that early next week the forum will be dead except for those with generators and internet still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What is making you lean towards the Euro Wes, if you don't mind me asking? Just because it's the Euro or is there something to the setup you like better? I'm just saying over the gfdl and the reason is pretty much what ian noted. I don't know how the model works with transitioning storms and don't know as it is a tropical model but also one based on physics so I'm not sure how much that matters. II'm used to dealing with the euro and gfs...no other reason except that most of the other operational models and ens runs are north of it and it's ens members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Some of those areas....fells and annapolis....have it bad enough with weaker storms. This, as you mentioned, really would be devastating. Bowleys Quarters is another area that would be wrecked. Ouch not good, my FIL has 2 boats down there. I know he's watching it, so I'm sure he'll take appropriate action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'd have a hard time going against the Euro ensemble mean at this point. It's been the most consistent, even over the Euro Op. By tomorrow, I'd start favoring the Op models given the resolution advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'd have a hard time going against the Euro ensemble mean at this point. It's been the most consistent, even over the Euro Op. By tomorrow, I'd start favoring the Op models given the resolution advantage. I would to though they are not that different. My comment above was to say I didn't trust the gfdl and would pick thee ecmwf over it but also would at this time range lean towards the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It seems to bomb everything out. Not sure how it would work with a transitioning storm anyway as I think it's a tropical model? Even the GFS when it was far off with the center had a pretty hefty 850 wind max in that backside zone. If it's truly going to be historic I want in. This. Go big, or go home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 looks like the gfs is coming around to the euro but still north at landfall central NJ Hi all, a bit late to the party here! Have only been following things on this board now and then, so forgive me if what I say was already mentioned before (don't feel like looking back through all 20+ pages!)... Anyhow, the 18Z GFS oper track sure looks more like what its recent ensemble mean has looked like (e.g., today's 12Z GFS ens. mean). And, it's in line with this afternoon's HPC's medium range graphics if I recall correctly...taking it into NJ. This is getting quite worrisome, especially with the trend for Sandy to make landfall farther south and west; the 12Z Euro would be devastating. Looks to me like if the Euro is correct, this would most probably be worse (intensity and path) than Isabel in 2003. Whatever the case, we're looking at strong winds and a lot of rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It sure seems like that is beginning to be the "consensus" that is building. I'm pretty prepared for this to rival or exceed Isabel in terms of wind here. I'm guessing that early next week the forum will be dead except for those with generators and internet still. Seems possible. For some reason I am still having a hard time buying it's going to be as bad as generally advertised. But what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Seems possible. For some reason I am still having a hard time buying it's going to be as bad as generally advertised. But what do I know. Yeah - in uncharted territory for most of us at this point. Doesn't feel real but the setup is so anomalous that we have to believe it's going to be pretty darn big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It sure seems like that is beginning to be the "consensus" that is building. I'm pretty prepared for this to rival or exceed Isabel in terms of wind here. I'm guessing that early next week the forum will be dead except for those with generators and internet still. If the current indications are correct, especially the Euro's interpretation...I'd wager this will be worse than Isabel. Anyone remember offhand what the central pressure of Isabel was as it went through VA? I recall the track went from NC and through central VA, passing fairly well southwest of the DC area. But we still had wind gusts (to ~60MPH?), and over 2" of rain. And, I know Baltimore Harbor was devastated by water being pushed up the Bay on prolonged southeast winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 FWIW the 00z NAM, seems like its off with the pressure but has Sandy 985 mb very close to the Florida coast...ah well its the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If the current indications are correct, especially the Euro's interpretation...I'd wager this will be worse than Isabel. Anyone remember offhand what the central pressure of Isabel was as it went through VA? I recall the track went from NC and through central VA, passing fairly well southwest of the DC area. But we still had wind gusts (to ~60MPH?), and over 2" of rain. And, I know Baltimore Harbor was devastated by water being pushed up the Bay on prolonged southeast winds. I am pretty sure if my records are correct, I have a 73 mph wind gust from Isabel here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 and its on crack because it stays stationary or even backs southwest in the next 6 hrs..WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Tropical Storm warnings up for GA/SC coast and Tropical Storm watch for SE NC coast now I think thats just the costal waters... NHC says nothing on their page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 and its on crack because it stays stationary or even backs southwest in the next 6 hrs..WTF Looking at the satellite you'd think it was going to hit SC. I guess the models have it pretty well pegged though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 These are sustained winds mind you (per Earthlight and credit for this image goes to him) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I think thats just the costal waters... NHC says nothing on their page It runs right up to the coast either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 These are sustained winds mind you (per Earthlight and credit for this image goes to him) that backside zone with heavy precip you see on the gfs/euro (some of these but 84 hrs may still be early) could be rockin. though my first thought on the mean was 25 mph sustained is a little shy of a frankenstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 that backside zone with heavy precip you see on the gfs/euro (some of these but 84 hrs may still be early) could be rockin. though my first thought on the mean was 25 mph sustained is a little shy of a frankenstorm. Storms like this are always less impressive than we predict. We'll spend the next few days talking about hurricane conditions only to end up with a firmly breezy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Storms like this are always less impressive than we predict. We'll spend the next few days talking about hurricane conditions only to end up with a firmly breezy day. I don't recall a storm like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I don't recall a storm like this. The last time some tropical thing impacted us. They really are mostly all the same away from the coastal areas that deal with flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Storms like this are always less impressive than we predict. We'll spend the next few days talking about hurricane conditions only to end up with a firmly breezy day. I wonder how much we'll be able to tap the higher winds off the surface. I'd think if we can get a good deform/frontal type band over the area that would help a good bit. The gradient is super tight regardless of whether the storm is 950 or 930 (unlikely), so it should be windy... Just not sure it's "unprecedented" (TWC) etc. Every storm has a little bit more hype than the last. Wait till we get another Hazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I wonder how much we'll be able to tap the higher winds off the surface. I'd think if we can get a good deform/frontal type band over the area that would help a good bit. The gradient is super tight regardless of whether the storm is 950 or 930 (unlikely), so it should be windy... Just not sure it's "unprecedented" (TWC) etc. Every storm has a little bit more hype than the last. Wait till we get another Hazel. I think it's been stated quite a few times that this storm "should" be more effective at transporting at least the 925 mb winds down along the western side of the storm. As the height falls crash east and the cold air rushes in you'll effectively set up a cold front like feature that will set up an unstable environment that can help tap those winds higher up. As a hybrid and how this all plays out is going to be fun to watch but this isn't a typical tropical transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NHC bringing the track into the Delaware Bay now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NHC bringing the track into the Delaware Bay now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Not quite sure where these will be... INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. From the Public Advisory part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That NHC track looks to be close to perfect for a storm to stay over water as long as possible before hitting us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 So with the track of NHC and the strength of the Euro... could we expect snow in central MD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 So with the track of NHC and the strength of the Euro... could we expect snow in central MD? NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Not quite sure where these will be... INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. From the Public Advisory part Probably watch up to NJ/NYC.. Warning for nc coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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