Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 ric 8" of rain and 4"+ of snow WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Wrapping all the way around the center..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 lol. Well, folks up north think the Euro is phasing too early. Would like to get a Met's thoughts on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Wrapping all the way around the center..... Pretty diagnostic of a warm seclusion as the storm transitions to an extratropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 lol. Well, folks up north think the Euro is phasing too early. Would like to get a Met's thoughts on this. Euro also was farther SW and stronger with the block by NewFoundland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 lol. Well, folks up north think the Euro is phasing too early. Would like to get a Met's thoughts on this. Well it is possible, but it is a little stronger with ridging out west and also downstream of it near NewFoundland. Put it together and you have that track...although it may be a wee bit phase happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Per wunderground's wundermaps, the Euro gets down to 928mb at 102 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 LWX AFD mentioning risk of heavy rain and damaging winds early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Perhaps I overlooked it earlier, but the GFS has 110mph winds at 850 on Tuesday evening at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Perhaps I overlooked it earlier, but the GFS has 110mph winds at 850 on Tuesday evening at DCA. That might prove problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Hell of a writeup by don s in ny forum on why due west move as modeled by euro, while rare, makes some sense here. Sent from my DROIDX 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Interesting aspect of transitioning tropical systems is that the radius of wind expands. Even with a Long Island landfall, the GFS has the wind ripping here. (caveat that I have no idea how the GFS surface wind gust product actually performs - more presenting the general idea) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 can we get the Euro surface at landfall please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 can we get the Euro surface at landfall please? Via wunderground.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I've heard the euro ens mean low center makes landfall in central nJ but haven't seen it. Is that true and where does the mean take it from there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I wonder how the windspeeds from the Euro track (if it materialized) would compare to Irene. The winds got cranking late during Irene, I believe DCA had a gust over 60 mph. I'd have to assume similar or greater wind speeds if we were that close to the center and the storm was reasonably close to Irene in strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 what is the ideal track for us to get a snowstorm of this? Eye going over State College like JMA has? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asdfk Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The impact of "major" storms have a habit of being overhyped, especially on boards such as these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 what is the ideal track for us to get a snowstorm of this? Eye going over State College like JMA has? I'll probably discuss that tomorrow in a CWG article, not the operational Euro. ....maybe the euro ens mean. Still you'll need elevation..i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 what is the ideal track for us to get a snowstorm of this? Eye going over State College like JMA has? The 12z GGEM track but with the tighter wound characteristics of the Euro would do it, but that is wishing for an abolutely perfect 1 in a million situation. The GFS track is pretty good but the problem is the storm characteristics on the GFS are not right. It has to be the right track, but also a very tightly wound storm like the Euro. But just to fan your crazy fire, you are looking for the Euro to be right with the dynamics of the storm, but for the track to shift north about 200 miles, say landfall over Northern NJ then moving WNW into northern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Give it up, dude. North of where the Euro is currently. Actually a compromise between EURO and GFS may be pretty close to the needed solution for snow flakes. NOT a snowstorm, give that dream up dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I wonder how the windspeeds from the Euro track (if it materialized would compare to Irene). The winds got cranking late during Irene, I believe DCA had a gust over 60 mph. I'd have to assume similar or greater wind speeds if we were that close to the center and the storm was reasonably close to Irene in strength. I think even more importantly would be the duration. Irene kept moving at a good clip. So did Isabel. And there wasn't a strong cold front with 1030+hp to the N and W. Heck, combine that with potentially a sub 950 cyclone and it really means business. It's not just about the cyclone when it comes to winds with this. Also, our area mixes down really well with caa to the N&W. This is no joke no matter which way you slice it. Another thing that we typically see with a landfalling cyclone is a quick deterioration of the precip sheild on the SW side of the center. This one is a bit unique because of the phase enhancement. The NE side will of course have the most precip but man, this could be wild because of the interaction with the front and cold hp to the nw. Another thing that I have been thinking about is instability. If it stays warmcore (looks like it will) at landfall it still has to transition. Not only will the pressure gradient be one largest I've been around for on the EC but also the temp difference on opposing sides of the cyclone. The storm will be sucking in cold air and wrapping it all the way into the center (euro solution is the starkest example of this). What does that translate to irt to instability and dynamics? Does anyone know what this means irt sensible weather at the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Another thing that I have been thinking about is instability. If it stays warmcore (looks like it will) at landfall it still has to transition. Not only will the pressure gradient be one largest I've been around for on the EC but also the temp difference on opposing sides of the cyclone. The storm will be sucking in cold air and wrapping it all the way into the center (euro solution is the starkest example of this). What does that translate to irt to instability and dynamics? Does anyone know what this means irt sensible weather at the surface? That's a great point. You would think what? Increased electric activity? Or maybe large hail? And maybe a rapid injection of cold air causes it to collapse especially fast after landfall? So many interesting possibilities here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm liking Sandy's the recent signs of core re-organization that it was lacking for most of the day. Though it's such a large storm, i can't imagine how it can become well organized over the next 24-48 hours. She has to much body to maintain, even with the gradual signs of increased convection all round the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 looks like the gfs is coming around to the euro but still north at landfall central NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 looks like the gfs is coming around to the euro but still north at landfall central NJ Wow http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06114.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Wow http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06114.gif 120 is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 That model was still out to sea at 6z right? Good job america Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS really juicing up the sw quad precip shield and isobars way tighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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