LongRanger Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 with that track NYC will resemble Katrina's New Orleans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 wind direction matters a bit too. we're "used" to nor'easters. tho low elevations still have lots of leaves and if we get to a euro type solution there's going to be mass carnage. You know, I've often wondered about trees' ability to strengthen themselves in relation to the predominant winds. You can look at telephone polls, in this area at least, and see evidence of them leaning slightly eastward, apparently due to the buffetting inflicted by the westerly winds. Do trees' roots orient themselves moreso into the direction of the oncoming winds to provide greater anchoring strength? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 You know, I've often wondered about trees' ability to strengthen themselves in relation to the predominant winds. You can look at telephone polls, in this area at least, and see evidence of them leaning slightly eastward, apparently due to the buffetting inflicted by the westerly winds. Do trees' roots orient themselves moreso into the direction of the oncoming winds to provide greater anchoring strength? I don't have scientific proof offhand but I'd bet trees are stronger against winds they typically get. There are lots of places where you can see them "molded" to the predominant wind directions. I think people have said part of the problem with Isabel was that the wind direction was not a typical one for super strong winds around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 with that track NYC will resemble Katrina's New Orleans i doubt it will be anything like that. Some flooding? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I don't have scientific proof offhand but I'd bet trees are stronger against winds they typically get. There are lots of places where you can see them "molded" to the predominant wind directions. I think people have said part of the problem with Isabel was that the wind direction was not a typical one for super strong winds around here. I'm guessing this will be moved over to the banter thread, but its called 'flagging'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I don't have scientific proof offhand but I'd bet trees are stronger against winds they typically get. There are lots of places where you can see them "molded" to the predominant wind directions. I think people have said part of the problem with Isabel was that the wind direction was not a typical one for super strong winds around here. It also depends on how deep the roots are, whether the tree is diseased, or the soil type. Palm tree of course have the deepest roots. But I'm not sure we get enough strong sustained winds for trees to "learn" how they need to "protect" themselves from wind. I thought the Palm was the only tree that did that because of the higher frequency of tropical weather. What could happen and has happened is even though the root system is strong, a tree can get snapped at the trunk or higher up and still cause damage. I do agree that the leaf canopy is thinning out. At least in my neighborhood. That's a good thing. But still some trees that are still green and full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 with that track NYC will resemble Katrina's New Orleans Pretty sure NYC isn't below sea level and doesn't rely on levees to keep the water out. Also pretty sure that Sandy won't have Cat. 3 winds and a 20+ ft. storm surge if/when it hits NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Oh hai der Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostbite_falls Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm guessing this will be moved over to the banter thread, but its called 'flagging'. Wow, something in my wheelhouse (ecologist by trade)--see here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krummholz As far as root/structural development in response to wind stress, I believe it can be one factor affecting growth and development, but slope, soil conditions, nutrient availability, water availability, etc. would play a much stronger role in this area generally--so basically I wouldn't expect it to help us much here, other than the fact that prior wind events will have help to cull out the weakest specimens already. A bigger factor that may come into play since fall is under way would be that some tree species lose their leaves earlier than others, so the trees still holding their leaves will be more exposed to the wind stresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS looks fine for those who expected a more practical landfall near LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What would be the effects here of the NHC(landfall in NJ) track panning out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Does DT post on any other boards, or has he managed to get himself banned from the internet? I think he's fully Facebook and his own site. Easier to remove disagreeable commentary toward him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What would be the effects here of the NHC(landfall in NJ) track panning out? Heavy rain, tropical storm force wind for a relatively long period of time... maybe a transition to snow at the end, though unlikely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The track after landfall will have significant impact on our wx here regardless of whether landfall is in LI or Delmarva. It all comes down to whether the track goes more west than north or vice versa. The more westward track the higher the winds and longer duration. I have a hard time buying into some of the wnw-w tracks. I guess it can happen but it's so atypical that being skeptical is prob the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Thanks, makes sense due to the sheer size of the storm. Are effects on the scale of Isabel likely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Thanks, makes sense due to the sheer size of the storm. Are effects on the scale of Isabel likely? Depends on which way you look at it. Not the same from a flooding standpoint like we saw with the chesapeake. IMO- I think the threat of more widespread damage from winds is quite a bit higher. On a side note, if we have sustained trop storm force winds from the n-nw then the chesapeake will have ridiculously low tides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GEFS is somewhere just south of NYC... Sandy Hook area probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 pretty decent swath of precip DC east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The GGEM stays consistent with other models, landfall in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The track after landfall will have significant impact on our wx here regardless of whether landfall is in LI or Delmarva. It all comes down to whether the track goes more west than north or vice versa. The more westward track the higher the winds and longer duration. I have a hard time buying into some of the wnw-w tracks. I guess it can happen but it's so atypical that being skeptical is prob the way to go. for those sick bastids (that would be "all of us") hoping to see a few flakes, a hit north of us (vs. Euro right at us track) and then a hard left would give us the best shot, so let's hope the Euro follows suit with its winter-time characteristics of shoving storms to the north (this being a different beast than a winter storm I readily acknowledge) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 for those sick bastids (that would be "all of us") hoping to see a few flakes, a hit north of us (vs. Euro right at us track) and then a hard left would give us the best shot, so let's hope the Euro follows suit with its winter-time characteristics of shoving storms to the north (this being a different beast than a winter storm I readily acknowledge) Yup...we actually want a northern hit to increase the already small chance we see some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 When can we expect the next Euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 When can we expect the next Euro run? I think it initializes in the next 10 minutes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 When can we expect the next Euro run? soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yup...we actually want a northern hit to increase the already small chance we see some flakes. meh.. we're not going to get a snowstorm around here/dc. we might as well root for pure mayhem with it coming as close as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think he's fully Facebook and his own site. Easier to remove disagreeable commentary toward him. Thanks - figured as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 meh.. we're not going to get a snowstorm around here/dc. we might as well root for pure mayhem with it coming as close as possible. This. I don't see a situation where close in to the metros gets anything more than a flurry...and even then perhaps I'm reaching a little bit. I don't want destruction, but this is such a rare event that I'd rather get a lot of impact to see just how strong it can get. This could be a super rare experience...willing to sustain some damage to see it. I'm not very fond in this situation of watching it completely go north into NE just so we can get 5 snowflakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Finally, some sense here! And with that - Any more discussion pertaining to my post should go to the banter thread before Midlo bans me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 euro has sandy a decent bit west of 0z while passing fla. so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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