H2O Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The GFS is no longer out to sea as it hits maine. I don't see a complete whiff along the east coast. Jason did a nice job describing why the storm is unlikely to stay out to sea in the article below. http://www.washingto....html#pagebreak Sometimes, it is wise to be a "model hugger." Now saying whether the euro, ukmet or ggem will have the right solution is a tougher nut to crack. Should have said more east before capture. my bad. Good read on the article. Ensembles have the best fit right now of the two models and eastern shore to RI is still in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The GFS is no longer out to sea as it hits maine. I don't see a complete whiff along the east coast. Jason did a nice job describing why the storm is unlikely to stay out to sea in the article below. http://www.washingto....html#pagebreak Sometimes, it is wise to be a "model hugger." Now saying whether the euro, ukmet or ggem will have the right solution is a tougher nut to crack. True, and, to be clear Wes, when they were having that discussion last night, the GFS had just gone waayyyyy right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS mean takes it NYC into state college.... Way left of the op. Interesting. I guess, if we want to see any flakes in the Balt/DC part of the Mid-Atlantic, even if just flurries in the air, that track would give that a shot. Not sure what that track does for you all in Philly. Fascinating setup, no matter where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 center of Sandy passes over baltimore on the euro... yay! Then right over Carroll. Would make Isabel look like nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Thanks to whoever (yoda?) mentioned it - the discussion of the Euro v GFS ridging out ahead of the storm in the NE thread was really enlightening for someone like me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 6z GEFS plumes for Baltimore. Still a HUGE spread in both precip amounts and start time. A fair number show some snow after the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Pepco and BG&E have to be crapping in their pants right now. The gradient is really really tight and the difference in pressure is bigger than pretty much anything I've seen in my lifetime on the EC (i wasn't here from 92-99). We typically mix really well post frontal w/ nw'ish flow. If the center even comes into LI then we are still going to have howling winds. That's one of the craziest parts of this system. Conventional thinking is that the further you are from the center the less chance at damaging winds. It's just not the cast this time. Outside of the immediate center, the highest winds are likely to be right in between the center of the lp and hp. Some of the ridges in PA could record some record breaking (or near record) gusts if this shakes out similar to what we are seeing on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Pepco and BG&E have to be crapping in their pants right now. The gradient is really really tight and the difference in pressure is bigger than pretty much anything I've seen in my lifetime on the EC (i wasn't here from 92-99). We typically mix really well post frontal w/ nw'ish flow. If the center even comes into LI then we are still going to have howling winds. That's one of the craziest parts of this system. Conventional thinking is that the further you are from the center the less chance at damaging winds. It's just not the cast this time. Outside of the immediate center, the highest winds are likely to be right in between the center of the lp and hp. Some of the ridges in PA could record some record breaking (or near record) gusts if this shakes out similar to what we are seeing on the models. Speaking from experience, BG&E really doesn't manage large events well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I will take that snow max please WxUSAF But interesting that the mean is about 4.69"... though the few 7-10 incher ones probably skew the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 idk, we're still talking being the bull's eye around day 5 on last night's Euro maybe I'm the only one not very excited at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Speaking from experience, BG&E really doesn't manage large events well. Neither does Pepco as we saw with the derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Speaking from experience, BG&E really doesn't manage large events well. In a way neither BG&E or Pepco stands much of a chance. Majority of the grid is old, above ground, and surrounded by trees. When it comes crashing down, it really comes crashing down. It interesting seeing such a big area of 1035ish hp on the models all across central and se Canada. Even a 960 low is a 75mb difference. I'm not sure how much lower than 960 it will be once it get this far north but even at that pressure the atmosphere has a heck of a lot of work to do to even things out. At the very least, this could be one of the more damaging wind events in history if the LP comes onshore somewhere between LI and Delmarva. It's the possibility of the unusual westward drift that makes the wind threat so real. N storm motion is a hit and run with the winds. NW-W is a much longer duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 idk, we're still talking being the bull's eye around day 5 on last night's Euro maybe I'm the only one not very excited at this point I may be wrong, but I don't think that one has to be in the bullseye to be excited about this storm. It is massive, and effects will be felt a long way from landfall. I think we get interesting weather unless it makes it to Maine/Nova Scotia. That's my sense anyway. On top of that, does anyone really want a landfall on the Delmarva with the potential for that damage? I know I don't. But I wouldn't mind being on this side of a landfalling system in Jersey with heavy rain and some wind and maybe some flakes in the air at some point. That would be kinda cool for me, at any rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 please remember not to post Euro precip maps here at least not from pay sites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 idk, we're still talking being the bull's eye around day 5 on last night's Euro maybe I'm the only one not very excited at this point I am just using it as a waypoint... but for sh*ts and giggles, NOGAPS is a very late Day 3 and on event for us per the 00z and 06z runs (and no mapgirl, I am not buying it 100%...just mentioning the time difference ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Really doubt you see massive change in track. Once we are in reasonable NAM range, then serious warning will occur. From NHCs perspective, the NAM basically doesn't exist, and for good reason. We need some sort of seminar for the tropical weenies to educate the other weenies :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 In a way neither BG&E or Pepco stands much of a chance. Majority of the grid is old, above ground, and surrounded by trees. When it comes crashing down, it really comes crashing down. As somebody pointed out somewhere else on the board, at least the Derecho has "Darwinzed" the trees, which will help limit damage a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 From NHCs perspective, the NAM basically doesn't exist, and for good reason. We need some sort of seminar for the tropical weenies to educate the other weenies :-) Some people have been told this plenty of times and they will still look at the NAM and other worthless models anyway. *ahem* YODA *ahem* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Some people have been told this plenty of times and they will still look at the NAM and other worthless models anyway. *ahem* YODA *ahem* NOGAPS isn't worthless in this event *ahem* I look at the NAM to see what IDEA it shows, I know its worthless at that range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It's an ok time to use the nam for judging differences in the timing and tilt of the trough. But definitely not the track of sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The NAM also has Sandy much weaker... 992 @ 36. It also has the storm moving wnw toward florida. There is zero reason to use it as a forecasting tool for track and strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Please, for the sake of some credibility in this thread, don't discuss how the NAM handles Hurricane Sandy. If you must, there's a banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Please, for the sake of some credibility in this thread, don't discuss how the NAM handles Hurricane Sandy. If you must, there's a banter thread. NAM has been even more horrible than its usual self this morning. The evolution of Sandy's circulation early on in the 12z run is laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Ok...until, let's say Wednesday (or until my super-powers are revoked), I'm going to just remove all posts referencing the NAM. Let's stop discussing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 As somebody pointed out somewhere else on the board, at least the Derecho has "Darwinzed" the trees, which will help limit damage a bit. wind direction matters a bit too. we're "used" to nor'easters. tho low elevations still have lots of leaves and if we get to a euro type solution there's going to be mass carnage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 wind direction matters a bit too. we're "used" to nor'easters. tho low elevations still have lots of leaves and if we get to a euro type solution there's going to be mass carnage. Good post. The derecho was hit and run too. If we have even have just a few hours of similar type winds the damage will be exponentially worse. Trees are a little bit like paper. Keep bending them back and forth and they keep getting weaker and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Ok...until, let's say Wednesday (or until my super-powers are revoked), I'm going to just remove all posts referencing the NAM. Let's stop discussing it. i think once it's near the coast and in shorter term it's perhaps more worth at least glancing at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 i think once it's near the coast and in shorter term it's perhaps more worth at least glancing at. It does well with qpf inside 48 on occasion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 NHC shifted west a lot. Looks like landfall somewhere in N NJ or near NYC http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201218_5day.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Disco Note that the tropical cyclone wind speed probabilities are not designed to handle the type of structural changes anticipated with Sandy during the forecast period. As a result...these probabilities will underestimate the actual risk of strong winds away from the center of Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.