yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 06z GFDL 937 mb same landfall place or thereabouts as the 00z EURO per Cheeznado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 06z GFDL 937 mb same place or thereabouts per Cheeznado GFDL.. Say GTFO This would be well the worst storm ever in this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The EURO is literally 3-4 feet PLUS of snow for WV/Western VA/WPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Tell us oh great guru! How much snow and rain for us all? And I should be sleeping for work at 9am Huge area of 24"+ wva. ----extreme northern va nada ----- cho lyh roa 12" -- ezf ric 4-8" Extreme cutoffs Rain ric dc 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro is ~940 mb at landfall at 117 hrs, per wundermaps. Also has hurricane force sfc winds this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Huge area of 24"+ wva. ----extreme northern va nada ----- cho lyh roa 12" -- ezf ric 4-8" Extreme cutoffs Rain ric dc 6" Wait how does EZF and RIC get that much snow and DCA nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 So what does NHC do at 5am since they love the GFS so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Wait how does EZF and RIC get that much snow and DCA nothing? They are closer to he low. Southern dc gets an inch more SW and S Very odd map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 So what does NHC do at 5am since they love the GFS so much. Really doubt you see massive change in track. Once we are in reasonable NAM range, then serious warning will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 My EURO source is updated for 0z. EURO:Rain starts 12z sunday @ 84. Really heavy rain onwards from hour 100ish. Storm tracks Rehobeth Beach landfall nightime monday. Tracks west directly at or about BWI.. Gets towards the skinny part of MD.. sits and rots there and rains itself out before lifting north. Rainfall 5+ entire Sterling CWA EURO has snowfall in the mountains short of a foot. Not sure how their algorithm works or anything. Trace snowfall on my products almost to Newport News VA. (very unlikely but funny to see modeled) Winds Inland : Tropical storm sustained if your inland near landfall within reasonable proximity to track. Gusts range 45-70 knots in LWX CWA depending on where you are in proximity to the center. Winds coast : Insane. 70 kt (as high as my chart goes) from OBX to Montauk. Cane force sustained it looks at the coast on tonights EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Gusts/sustained may be higher. My scale is set very low. That's out of my control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Temperatures are really cold south and west away of the system. Temperatures below 40 for almost all of VA by 126. Mountains would be getting hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 My EURO source is updated for 0z. EURO:Rain starts 12z sunday @ 84. Really heavy rain onwards from hour 100ish. Storm tracks Rehobeth Beach landfall nightime monday. Tracks west directly at or about BWI.. Gets towards the skinny part of MD.. sits and rots there and rains itself out before lifting north. Rainfall 5+ entire Sterling CWA EURO has snowfall in the mountains short of a foot. Not sure how their algorithm works or anything. Trace snowfall on my products almost to Newport News VA. (very unlikely but funny to see modeled) Winds Inland : Tropical storm sustained if your inland near landfall within reasonable proximity to track. Gusts range 45-70 knots in LWX CWA depending on where you are in proximity to the center. Winds coast : Insane. 70 kt (as high as my chart goes) from OBX to Montauk. Cane force sustained it looks at the coast on tonights EURO. You have to think water piles up nj ny harbor & Long Island, btw how do winds get on jersey shore -li? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 You have to think water piles up nj ny harbor & Long Island, btw how do winds get on jersey shore -li? immediate jersey shore and li appears to be gusting as high as 70 knots, even that far away. Huge wind field. Coastal effects on the euro would appear to be enormous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 5AM has to shift left I mean come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I put mine out at 1AM pretty close to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 So "worst" case scenario for DC area - say it comes inland down our way. Do we get wind warnings or do we get TS warnings/inland TS warnings? I raise this question because it won't be fully tropical by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sounds like if we want snow...we want landfall more north like NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 center of Sandy passes over baltimore on the euro... yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Gfs gonna phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Just misses the phase - but speculation that it will still come back for NE. It's definitely better though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Remember the Feb 19th event this year-- 5 days out looked to be a DC event and each run kept pushing it further south? (confluence was stronger each run) Anyways, could landfall be further SW as the models catch up to blocking? (AKA, further south that Cape May?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Gfs gonna phase Back to the 12z coastal Maine hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 06z NOGAPS consistent with previous runs lololol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What Yoda said. The discussion of the difference between the GFS and Euro in how it is modeling the blocking is a must read in the NE thread, by the way. Thanks for that heads up. Reading that helps out a ton in figuring out why the euro and GFS have been so different in storm tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Thanks for that heads up. Reading that helps out a ton in figuring out why the euro and GFS have been so different in storm tracks. Yeah, cleared a ton up for me last night, appreciate the work from the mets engaged in that exchange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yeah, cleared a ton up for me last night, appreciate the work from the mets engaged in that exchange. Explaining the weakness and that is the reason the GFS still goes OTS some was huge. It really is a matter of which one gets it right to see where it goes. Something to watch for on today's model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Explaining the weakness and that is the reason the GFS still goes OTS some was huge. It really is a matter of which one gets it right to see where it goes. Something to watch for on today's model runs The GFS is no longer out to sea as it hits maine. I don't see a complete whiff along the east coast. Jason did a nice job describing why the storm is unlikely to stay out to sea in the article below. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/mega-storm-threat-growing-for-mid-atlantic-and-northeast-early-next-week-from-sandy/2012/10/24/0b7f1148-1e06-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html#pagebreak Sometimes, it is wise to be a "model hugger." Now saying whether the euro, ukmet or ggem will have the right solution is a tougher nut to crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS mean takes it NYC into state college.... Way left of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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