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Hurricane Sandy


Wonderdog

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I heard from a MET...maybe someone can confirm that the NWS is asking offices accross the country to release weather balloons every 6 hours...if so is this unprecedented?

Here is the message:

000

NOUS42 KWNO 241816

ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD

1813Z WED OCT 24 2012

DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF

HURRICANE SANDY.. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED

BEGINNING 18Z THURSDAY 25 OCT 2012... ALL REGIONAL

DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE

SCHEDULE BELOW.. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS CONTACT YOUR

REGION OR THE SDM...

***SPECIAL 06Z/18Z SOUNDING REQUESTS***

WESTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

CENTRAL REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

EASTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

SOUTHERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

--------------------------------------

THE RELEASE SCHEDULE WILL BE EVALUATED AS THE SITUATION

EVOLVES...

SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

116 mph gust just observed at Kingston Airport

Source please

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If the Euro verifies it will be hard to decide if I go to Oakland for snow or stay put for TS conditions.

You could easily score both. It's not a fast mover. Enjoy the frontside rain and 50-60mph gusts and then jump in the car. 3 hours later you can enjoy the backside blizzard. These types of opportunities (if it verifies of course) are once in a lifetime.

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Tommy T of WBAL actually showed the EURO model in his 5 oclock weather forecast, so hes at least showing the public the possibility of this devastating solution. Id imagine not all TV Mets will do this but i think they should

Showing operational runs this far out is a bit irresponsible... ensemble guidance and uncertainties should be the highlight along with potential and most realistic impacts.

EDIT: Earlier today someone with a better pulse on this particular topic than me explained that TV mets were "feeling more pressure" to display the model maps. Put that in with a very limited time to discuss it in any detail and you have a recipe for disaster if and when the public misinterprets the maps.

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Showing operational runs this far out is a bit irresponsible... ensemble guidance and uncertainties should be the highlight along with potential and most realistic impacts.

He explained that it was one if many options on the table and not to take it as a forecast. Calm down

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Showing operational runs this far out is a bit irresponsible... ensemble guidance and uncertainties should be the highlight along with potential and most realistic impacts.

He showed all the spagehtti plots...He just used the EURO individual run as well but he explained its just 1 solution so...No worry. I feel its a good idea,you should at least tell the people that a dangerous storm could be coming..TV Mets sugar coat stuff too much

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That's great and all, but considering it's an extreme solution, it's probably not the best thing to be showing the public at the moment.

I know its not the most likely solution, but would we really consider it extreme right now? I know they are not the best models but the GFDL and NOGAPS both show something somewhat similar...Several 12z GFS ensembles also show a DE or NJ hit..Im just saying.

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He showed all the spagehtti plots...He just used the EURO individual run as well but he explained its just 1 solution so...No worry. I feel its a good idea,you should at least tell the people that a dangerous storm could be coming..TV Mets sugar coat stuff too much

Well that's a lot better information, and I take back some of my initial criticism. I've seen too many instances where mets just put up a run and go with it, so it's good to hear that.

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That's great and all, but considering it's an extreme solution, it's probably not the best thing to be showing the public at the moment.

Extreme solution?

You just tweeted that the east coast needs to be on alert. What Tom did is no different than what you did. He just chose to show an option that could impact Md versus showing the GFS that wouldn't impact us at all.

It's not like he sad "this is going to happen", he said its one of MANY options on the table.

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I know its not the most likely solution, but would we really consider it extreme right now? I know they are not the best models but the GFDL and NOGAPS both show something somewhat similar...Several 12z GFS ensembles also show a DE or NJ hit..Im just saying.

Extreme as in deviating from the ensemble mean. I could care less about what NOGAPS does and almost the same is true with the GFDL.

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Extreme solution?

You just tweeted that the east coast needs to be on alert. What Tom did is no different than what you did. He just chose to show an option that could impact Md versus showing the GFS that wouldn't impact us at all.

It's not like he sad "this is going to happen", he said its one of MANY options on the table.

I didn't show the Euro Op. disaster scenario, so yes it is different. All I did was to make sure people who could potentially be affected are paying close attention to the weather, and I did not mention any sort of specific track.

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Yeah, don't understand any criticism of Tasslemeyer for doing that. In fact, very responsible of him to do so. After seeing the Euro, called a friend of mine with a house in Ocean City and told her she may need to plan in some time to deal with securing it this weekend. Irresponsible of me? She had heard nothing, and all I told her was that it was a fluid situation and to keep a close eye on it. She had not bee aware of the potential of any threat at all, so I would think that it is good that TT at least is raising the possibilty to so folks have some lead time, just in case...

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I didn't show the Euro Op. disaster scenario, so yes it is different. All I did was to make sure people who could potentially be affected are paying close attention to the weather, and I did not mention any sort of specific track.

That's what he did, he just chose to show a model as one of the options.

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Yeah, don't understand any criticism of Tasslemeyer for doing that. In fact, very responsible of him to do so. After seeing the Euro, called a friend of mine with a house in Ocean City and told her she may need to plan in some time to deal with securing it this weekend. Irresponsible of me? She had heard nothing, and all I told her was that it was a fluid situation and to keep a close eye on it. She had not bee aware of the potential of any threat at all, so I would think that it is good that TT at least is raising the possibilty to so folks have some lead time, just in case...

Agreed. Mentioning it as an option is good as far as I can tell.

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Tommy T of WBAL actually showed the EURO model in his 5 oclock weather forecast, so hes at least showing the public the possibility of this devastating solution. Id imagine not all TV Mets will do this but i think they should

That's just what this region needs. The same people that empty grocery shelves at the first sight of a snowflake don't need to have the fear put in them (this far out) that there's a chance the DelMarVa will be wiped off the earth.

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Let me ask this, why show the high impact stuff like the Euro Op instead of demonstrating a more realistic scenario? It's important to understand the potential, but it's also important to convey what we as meteorologists expect to happen (you know, discussing the ACTUAL forecast). Both GFS and Euro ensembles swing Sandy through the general LI area and not across Delmarva... wouldn't that be the more pertinent information to get across?

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That's just what this region needs. The same people that empty grocery shelves at the first sight of a snowflake don't need to have the fear put in them (this far out) that there's a chance the DelMarVa will be wiped off the earth.

He did not describe the effects of what would happen if the EURO occured, he just said heavy rain, and gusty winds if this track happens...your average Joe does not know what those images portray in terms of Impact.

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He did not describe the effects of what would happen if the EURO occured, he just said heavy rain, and gusty winds if this track happens...your average Joe does not know what those images portray in terms of Impact.

Don't bother. If they mention the options now they are irresponsible. If they don't mention it, then they suck for not giving the public the heads up.

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Let me ask this, why show the high impact stuff like the Euro Op instead of demonstrating a more realistic scenario? It's important to understand the potential, but it's also important to convey what we as meteorologists expect to happen (you know, discussing the ACTUAL forecast). Both GFS and Euro ensembles swing Sandy through the general LI area and not across Delmarva... wouldn't that be the more pertinent information to get across?

Which is probably why he showed the spaghetti plots first and foremost where most take the track you suggest.

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