mattie g Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Ensemble mean 72 hr precip -- http://raleighwx.ame...emblep72156.gif tiered precip (less in SW LWX CWA) to most in NE MD (which is pushing 4" QPF) Much different than the op. I'd imagine there are quite a few ensemble members that have this thing being captured much farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 As a guess, I'd say because it's still averaging in a few members who have it escaping out to Spain/Africa and then probably also has some members that pop a separate coastal low. Those members with the separate low and those that have a capture probably look fairly similar by ~150hrs if you pay no attention to where the monster low comes from, hence the appearance of a full capture. As a wag though, I'd say probably many if not most ensemble members will have a full capture given the trends over the past few model cycles. Agreed. All hail the Euro Ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 As a guess, I'd say because it's still averaging in a few members who have it escaping out to Spain/Africa and then probably also has some members that pop a separate coastal low. Those members with the separate low and those that have a capture probably look fairly similar by ~150hrs if you pay no attention to where the monster low comes from, hence the appearance of a full capture. As a wag though, I'd say probably many if not most ensemble members will have a full capture given the trends over the past few model cycles. The depth of the low does suggest there are quite a few really deep members near Long Island even taking into account the spread and the few (I probably diminishing number ) that let Sandy escape to the east. Of course the members that develop a second really powerful low on the baroclinic zone northwest of Sandy also probably give weight to the long island and then nrn PA location shown on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The depth of the low does suggest there are quite a few really deep members near Long Island even taking into account the spread and the few (I probably diminishing number ) that let Sandy escape to the east. Of course the members that develop a second really powerful low on the baroclinic zone northwest of Sandy also probably give weight to the long island and then nrn PA location shown on the mean. Here are the individual members. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html Looks like all but 2 hit the NE at some point. The op run is the slowest late Tuesday up in Maine but others bring a powerful/deep hurricane into NYC by 12z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Here are the individual members. http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html Looks like all but 2 hit the NE at some point. The op run is the slowest late Tuesday up in Maine but others bring a powerful/deep hurricane into NYC by 12z Monday. lol, I just posted in your thread while you were posting in ours. The euro ensembles last night and the gefs today are in pretty close agreement which to me is pretty impressive and makes me think that a phase is now the most likely scenario with the exact track still being up for grabs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 lol, I just posted in your thread while you were posting in ours. The euro ensembles last night and the gefs today are in pretty close agreement which to me is pretty impressive and makes me think that a phase is now the most likely scenario with the exact track still being up for grabs. how far south do we need it to hit landfall so we can get snow from this thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 how far south do we need it to hit landfall so we can get snow from this thing I haven;t even though of that yet. It's a real balancing act as the warm seclusion is going to wrap lots of warm air into and around the system one the north side but probably even some on the w until you get south of the low where the westerly winds accelerate the front eastward. The west winds will try to produce downsloping and drying so it's hard to know how much precip will fall where it is cold enough to snow. I'm not ready to guess yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I haven;t even though of that yet. It's a real balancing act as the warm seclusion is going to wrap lots of warm air into and around the system one the north side but probably even some on the w until you get south of the low where the westerly winds accelerate the front eastward. The west winds will try to produce downsloping and drying so it's hard to know how much precip will fall where it is cold enough to snow. I'm not ready to guess yet. What kind of meteorologist are you?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 What kind of meteorologist are you?! A very old and cowardly one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I haven;t even though of that yet. It's a real balancing act as the warm seclusion is going to wrap lots of warm air into and around the system one the north side but probably even some on the w until you get south of the low where the westerly winds accelerate the front eastward. The west winds will try to produce downsloping and drying so it's hard to know how much precip will fall where it is cold enough to snow. I'm not ready to guess yet. I'm thinking 2000' and up out here in Pocahontas County will at least see some upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Day 4 Euro out on Plymouth. Looks west ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 From Coastal...Euro makes landfall around Wallops Island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Way SW, about to make landfall near Wallops island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Holy moly, taking aim at Ocean City at 120! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Delmarva hit at 120 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Euro has a 940 something surface low just off the coast of Ocean City at 120 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Not at computer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I Ninja'd H20 it will never happen again. mark my words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 For posterity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Sort of almost stalls just east of Wallops island at hr 126. Looks like 930 mb or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'm thinking 2000' and up out here in Pocahontas County will at least see some upslope. From what I saw on the GFS the higher ridges in WV-MD-PA are poised to get some upslope regardless of Sandy. I didn't pay close attention but post frontal passage looks pretty ripe for some orographic snow. Even a little vort max rounding the bottom in se wv @ hr 114ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Looks like Cape May at 132? Or just west of there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 most insane euro i have ever seen backside of the cane has the 0c racing east of ric with the cane near the jersey coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Very Irene-ish track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 most insane euro i have ever seen backside of the cane has the 0c racing east of ric with the cane near the jersey coast Ji was asking about snow. Sound like the euro is a track that would offer some chances if the precip were hard enough and you had elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 My goodness. Euro is hell bent and unwavering. And at 5 day lead now. If the GFS makes another move tonight then it's time to start honking some horns and having folks start preparing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The Euro crushes us. Here's Day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Very Irene-ish track. But probably a bigger wind field? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The Euro crushes us. Here's Day 6. That a very agnes type track with a much stronger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Very Irene-ish track. Until it gets pulled NW at NJ. That is the most interesting part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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