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Hurricane Sandy


Wonderdog

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At 144hr, heading NNW toward the Gulf of Maine and/or the Canadian western maritimes. Still looks like it will pop a coastal with the digging trough over us.

What a solution. Landfall just up the coast from Portland, ME, and continues inland with a 962mb low almost to Lake Ontario.

We get a chilly breeze.

edit - uncomfortable Halloween trick-or-treating with wind chills in the low 30s on the GFS

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000

URPN12 KNHC 152047

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP032012

A. 15/20:22:50Z

B. 14 deg 42 min N

096 deg 18 min W

C. 700 mb 2902 m

D. 98 kt

E. 198 deg 6 nm

F. 314 deg 90 kt

G. 224 deg 16 nm

H. 976 mb

I. 6 C / 3058 m

J. 16 C / 3056 m

K. 7 C / NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C29

N. 12345 / 07

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF305 0103E CARLOTTA OB 20

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 99 KT N QUAD 20:29:30Z

;

That equates to 113 mph winds, Category 3.

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000

URPN12 KNHC 152047

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP032012

A. 15/20:22:50Z

B. 14 deg 42 min N

096 deg 18 min W

C. 700 mb 2902 m

D. 98 kt

E. 198 deg 6 nm

F. 314 deg 90 kt

G. 224 deg 16 nm

H. 976 mb

I. 6 C / 3058 m

J. 16 C / 3056 m

K. 7 C / NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C29

N. 12345 / 07

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF305 0103E CARLOTTA OB 20

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 99 KT N QUAD 20:29:30Z

;

That equates to 113 mph winds, Category 3.

wrong system, that's from the EPAC earlier this year

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Whiffed by the GFS. Hopefully the capture happens as depicted on the euro

GFS has slowly come towards the euro camp each run. I think it is still safe to say that we will be close enough to get some effects. One of the ptype maps gets DC into snow. Not likely but fun to see.

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Would the intensity of a young Sandy have any effect on whether she stays closer to the coast or moves a little farther east? Just from reading threads about tropical systems in the summer, it seems that the more wrapped up a westward-moving storm, the more likely it is to turn right. Would there be a similar effect on a system moving to the north in the higher latitudes?

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Compromise between the euro and GFS and go with NYC. Close enough?

Absolutely not. Somewhere between the mouth of the Chesapeake and DE Bay or bust!

At the very least, strong consensus is building for it to come ashore somewhere between MD and LI. GFS didn't do it yet but I agree with your post after looking at the latest run. It's starting to toy with the idea of bringing it in.

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Would the intensity of a young Sandy have any effect on whether she stays closer to the coast or moves a little farther east? Just from reading threads about tropical systems in the summer, it seems that the more wrapped up a westward-moving storm, the more likely it is to turn right. Would there be a similar effect on a system moving to the north in the higher latitudes?

It's tough to say. I think the speed of the system is more important than strength (within reason of course). It's hard to make a storm like this make a left turn at all. There has to be some perfect timing of the trough position and tilt along with hl blocking to make it "buck the normal track".

I'm not a tropics guy at all but I have to make a wag and say that a ts taking this kind of track will almost always curve out to sea in the oct-nov timframe. You would expect a an approaching front and trough to do nothing more than kick it harder out to sea. Not this time though. That big ole block means business.

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12z GFS ensemble mean looks ridiculous... Sandy escapes way east and then slams on the brakes and returns westward and rams into NYC

120 -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPNA120.gif (brakes slammed on)

132 -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPNA132.gif (back west we come)

144 -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPNA144.gif

156 -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPNA156.gif (C PA at 982 mb.. viola!)

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12z GFS ensemble mean looks ridiculous...

As a guess, I'd say because it's still averaging in a few members who have it escaping out to Spain/Africa and then probably also has some members that pop a separate coastal low. Those members with the separate low and those that have a capture probably look fairly similar by ~150hrs if you pay no attention to where the monster low comes from, hence the appearance of a full capture. As a wag though, I'd say probably many if not most ensemble members will have a full capture given the trends over the past few model cycles.

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