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Hurricane Sandy


Wonderdog

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euro ens. mean is bullish for a SNE hit then over boston. it is also bullish on the western extent of the precip for va. 1" back to roa/lyh------ ric to winchester 2" --------dc 3"+

Heard there was a lot of stretching of isobars to the west signaling a good deal of members making a landfall south of LI?

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Stating the serious obvious about this being unusual but still, the Euro is the goto at this point. It has consistently done the best with a timed shortwave / trough / phase scenario. The fact that it isn't wavering all the much is a serious deal. It may be overdoing strength (likely of course) but the timing of the trough going negative and the position of Sandy really opens eyes.

Another thing is the constancy of the HL blocking. Another feature that isn't wavering much on the euro. It's not unreasonable to see how it's quite possible that ex-sandy can slow way down and make a left turn. The block is strong. It's got strong consensus to be in the neighborhood of -2 to -3. This is quite significant:

Still doesn't mean the whole system can easily make a right turn and stay offshore though. If the trough stays neutral or positive then there can still be a phase but most of the action will remain east even with a strong -nao.

The euro may do it's thing and burp today and shoo away all the weenies but even then it definitely doesn't mean it won't come back. Another thing we've seen time and time again.

I do know this, if the euro never wavers and verification is close then it will be another euro hugging winter.

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