Ian Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 168 over CT if I know the map.. or close. SNE gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Adam told me earlier today that the models should have a better idea on what the s/w will do Thursday/Friday We also need to see quickly the storm actually moves north as that may not be handled that well by the models. The faster solutions probably would have the approaching trough have a positive tilt long enough to allow the storm to escape east. the slower solution gives more time for the negative tilt to develop. Still we play a waiting game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 162 heading into Long Island or Cape Cod area. There's a black hole of Isobars so I can't see the map. 1"+ qpf lines up with Potomac more or less. looks like 940mb at landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 looks like 940mb at landfall somewhere in there tho weatherbell maps were much deeper than others so that might be like a 918 or soemthing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 this would be an epic storm up there heading NW at hr.174 into NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Hr 168 Eastern tip of Long Island hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Long Island would be literally screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 central northern pa. southwestern NY looks like the snow jackpot congrats jamieo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Snow jackpot W NY/PA border thru 186 -- 18"+. Much of C PA 4-8"+.. dipping into W MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Long Island would be literally screwed. NYC, li, sne, wouldn't be pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 2"+ qpf from Potomac NE.. sharp drop SW. NE MD and E of Bay 3"+.. 4"+ hits shore. CT gets a precip middle finger with everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I assume warm BL temps prevent us from getting hurricane snow? 850s looks below 0C based on a post in the NYC thread. @Ian...is that 2-4" of precip cumulative over the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I assume warm BL temps prevent us from getting hurricane snow? 850s looks below 0C based on a post in the NYC thread. Its close WXusaf, will change a lot though, but n md elevation areas get some flakes verbatim this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I assume warm BL temps prevent us from getting hurricane snow? 850s looks below 0C based on a post in the NYC thread. @Ian...is that 2-4" of precip cumulative over the storm? 850 lines up north/south over DC much of the event.. crashes east toward the end. Precip not terribly heavy by then tho maybe wet flakes? QPF is cumulative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 landfall map euro (937 mb): https://twitter.com/...4/photo/1/large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 850 winds are rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Love how JB includes us in the "damaging snow threat" sector of his recent tweet http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/260813149136109568/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 landfall map euro (937 mb): https://twitter.com/...4/photo/1/large Wow look at those winds. We would probably get 30-40mph sustained gust 60+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 landfall map euro (937 mb): https://twitter.com/...4/photo/1/large Wow. This is something right there. 850 winds blasting over 90mph over LI and even 80mph overhead here. I'm not sure how to correlate at the surface but I would guess gusts in 50-60mph range with heavier precip. That really is something. The MD beaches would take a hit for sure before winds turned offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Love how JB includes us in the "damaging snow threat" sector of his recent tweet http://twitter.com/B...6109568/photo/1 what a goon. why even highlight that with such a track? other things would be considerably more problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 what a goon. why even highlight that with such a track? other things would be considerably more problematic. Yep, like the destruction of Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Love how JB includes us in the "damaging snow threat" sector of his recent tweet http://twitter.com/B...6109568/photo/1 He has to include somewhere in the I-95 corridor in order to keep things interesting. My question would be whether he made the map based on the Euro verbatim or his own interpretation of things. Because if it's the former, then he's lying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Yep, like the destruction of Long Island the euro is probably a good bit too strong at landfall fortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherSeeksBalance Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 He has to include somewhere in the I-95 corridor in order to keep things interesting. My question would be whether he made the map based on the Euro verbatim or his own interpretation of things. Because if it's the former, then he's lying. His map was done based on his own interpretation of things much earlier in the day (I'm a subscriber to WeatherBell). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 what a goon. why even highlight that with such a track? other things would be considerably more problematic. 'copter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Jeez, that caption should read "damaging reputation threat". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Watch out Montauk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Just looked at the Euro on Wunderground. Ian wasn't kidding about the Potomac being a wall. Barely any precip into WV/N. VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 329 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012 VALID 12Z FRI OCT 26 2012 - 12Z TUE OCT 30 2012 ...POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR STORM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC & NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK... FINAL... ELECTED TO STAY THE COURSE BY KEEPING THE MAJOR EAST COAST STORM IN PLAY FOR THE FINAL FORECAST. THE 12Z/23 DETERMINISTIC GFS SENDS SANDY'S CIRCULATION OUT PAST BERMUDA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WHILE THE 12Z/23 GEFS MEAN INCORPORATES IT ALONG THE EAST COAST IN LINE WITH THE HPC MANUAL FORECAST. THE 12Z/23 GEM GLOBAL KEEPS SANDY OUT OF REACH OF THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA, THOUGH LIKE THE LATEST GFS, IT IS PERHAPS BEST TO REGARD SUCH A DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AS A SLIGHTLY SOUPED-UP ENSEMBLE MEMBER. THE 12Z/23 ECMWF STILL INCORPORATES AN EXTREMELY DEEP POST-TROPICAL SANDY INTO THE MID-LEVEL PIVOT POINT OF THE POLAR JET IN THE VICINITY OF LONG ISLAND EARLY NEXT TUESDAY, THE DYNAMIC TRANSFER RESULTING IN A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF AT LEAST 932MB. THEREIN LIES THE STORM'S MENACE- A POWERHOUSE CAPABLE OF WHIPPING THE ATLANTIC INTO A FRENZY AND CHURNING UP DANGEROUS TIDES. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE COINCIDENCE OF THE FULL MOON ON SUNDAY, OFTEN A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN HISTORICAL EVENTS. THE OCEAN EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM MAY STILL BE REALIZED EVEN IF POST-TROPICAL SANDY DOES NOT MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES. BESIDES THE WIND, THE OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT IS HEAVY RAINS, WITH HEAVY SNOWS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HYBRID CIRCULATION WHERE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR RUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HAVE PREFERRED THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE FOR HANDLING OF THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW, ITS SYNOPTIC NUANCES BEST SERVING THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES WHERE THE FLOW OPENS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 euro ens. mean is bullish for a SNE hit then over boston. it is also bullish on the western extent of the precip for va. 1" back to roa/lyh------ ric to winchester 2" --------dc 3"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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