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Hurricane Sandy


Wonderdog

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12z GFS ensemble mean pulls off the phase at the absolute last possible moment. Breezy cold rain for us.12zgfsensemblep12180.gif

I think if it phases, it is likely to be far enough n for us to see mainly wind and maybe light rain. If so I hope it doesn't rain and just blows all the rest of my leaves off the trees.

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Not sure where Ian and Midlo are, but I'm going to step in soon.

i was hoping everyone would get out of their system on this first threat. this stuff posted below is just as bad as the weenie stuff and just clogs threads with worthless posts for people looking for information. i'm glad to see a banter thread started hopefully it will be contained in there

you all are a bunch of :weenie: :weenie: :weenie:

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:weenie: all of you

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damage, lots of damage, damage

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I answered a question. Get over it

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I have no idea what you're taking about :whistle:

And yes, damagey damage

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Off hour run, throw it out

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Gas up the bus

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We are about 8 pages behind too :lol:

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If you listen to CT Blizz, if you haven't yet then you are behind

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Lock it up!

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^ lol

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No one cares

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Lame to another SNE special

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IT WALLOPS WALLOPS ISLAND

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This thread is complete now that Ji is here

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shut your face

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:lol: sorry guess you didn't get the sarcasm in that

whatevs

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Agreed - i was just surprised to see some of our regulars post more there than here

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ive noticed a few of our usuals are posting more in SNE than our thread :(

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I'm waiting for Ian's blow by blow account of what it is forecasting.

looks like a strengthening cat 4 up the bay that then parks to our north and dumps 3' of snow.

err this might be banter.

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GEFS individual members are interesting. The mean looks like Sandy phases with the incoming trough, but if you look at the members, you see that's not the case in almost all of them. Far more of them pop a separate low on the coast when the trough goes negative and that low gets a "boost" from Sandy. So, you still end up with a powerful low over NY/SNE, but it's NOT Sandy.

http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html

P.S. This seems like a far more likely scenario (if you want to play the climo/difficulty of phasing hurricanes game).

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GEFS individual members are interesting. The mean looks like Sandy phases with the incoming trough, but if you look at the members, you see that's not the case in almost all of them. Far more of them pop a separate low on the coast when the trough goes negative and that low gets a "boost" from Sandy. So, you still end up with a powerful low over NY/SNE, but it's NOT Sandy.

http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html

P.S. This seems like a far more likely scenario (if you want to play the climo/difficulty of phasing hurricanes game).

I think that's kinda what happened with Wilma

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GEFS individual members are interesting. The mean looks like Sandy phases with the incoming trough, but if you look at the members, you see that's not the case in almost all of them. Far more of them pop a separate low on the coast when the trough goes negative and that low gets a "boost" from Sandy. So, you still end up with a powerful low over NY/SNE, but it's NOT Sandy.

http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html

P.S. This seems like a far more likely scenario (if you want to play the climo/difficulty of phasing hurricanes game).

It does seem like a more likely scenario but can be a very wet one even if Sandy curves well to the right. I can't remember the storm but do have memories of flooding from such a low and inverted trough as a cane went by to the south. The long southeasterly and easterly fetch brings in lots of moisture. Wish my memory was better.

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108 east of 12z. Trough still pretty positive, was going neutral on 0z.

114 still slightly east of 0z position.. trough starting to go neutral. General movement northeast last 12 hours but might be turning back north.

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132 north turning.. precip working into DC area.. fringe.. getting pulled northwest by trough. Lots o' isobars. Still due east of NC. SE of 0z.

138 turning NW.. center off VA/NC coast due south of Cape Cod. Light precip most of area, heavier near coast.

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Perhaps this has been asked already - How long until the various upper air features are in an area of better sampling? A few days?

Adam told me earlier today that the models should have a better idea on what the s/w will do Thursday/Friday

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