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Hurricane Sandy


Wonderdog

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On some of the more 'catastrophic' looking model suites you have to favor PA and elevations to our west for biggest snowfalls for sure. It's fun to toy with the idea of a large snowfall at this time of the year though here. Imagine this is two years in a row we have tracked such an event?

Yeah even in the worst case scenario, I'm thinking you'd have to drive north or west to see anything meaningful if you're looking for snow.

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After last year, I don't care to see snow in October ever again if it means such a pitiful winter to follow

People in our region need to relax. Aside from the derecho, when was the last time we had some really exciting weather in our area? I'm not talking about a strong line of storms or some weak supercell action during an afternoon in the summer. When was the last time? The October snow last year? Sure, but that didn't affect the majority of the people that post in these threads. The remnants of Irene? Maybe. Aside from the derecho, you might have to go all the way back to the winter of 09-10 to see some really exciting stuff. People shouldn't get their panties in a bunch when someone says the weather around here is boring. It's an opinion that is no worse than the majority of the forecasts that are thrown around all year long.

Like it too. That means 18+ up in fuzzieland, right? :weenie:

I'd argue that the MA's interesting weather occurs much less frequently than other areas, but I just don't have the time right now to do the research to support that and I also don't want to further pollute this thread with banter. When I do get time, I'll pull the data and post it even if it doesn't support my opinion.

Right. And your opinion sucks.

Time for a banter thread?

My wife and I are heading to Disneyworld on Nov 1st. Any disruption to our flight because of foul weather (snow) would be epic.

Stay classy! Incapable of having an adult discussion, I see.

Not sure where Ian and Midlo are, but I'm going to step in soon.

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Yeah even in the worst case scenario, I'm thinking you'd have to drive north or west to see anything meaningful if you're looking for snow.

True, although the insane dynamics of a euro type situation is what it would take for any type of accumulated snowfall anywhere near the metros at this time of the year. Imagine 70's this week and snow next week :lol:

This is what I live for as a weather enthusiast though.

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People waffle too much with mid-range model shifts. There was no reason to get into specifics Sunday or yesterday if it means you report every swing "models show less likely, models show more likely" subsequently. Big storm off coast.. some impact likely. Impact could be big. Not sure if it's just to make a story or if weatherpeople feel like they have to give more than the science can currently offer. I'd have to lean toward the former.

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People waffle too much with mid-range model shifts. There was no reason to get into specifics Sunday or yesterday if it means you report every swing "models show less likely, models show more likely" subsequently. Big storm off coast.. some impact likely. Impact could be big. Not sure if it's just to make a story or if weatherpeople feel like they have to give more than the science can currently offer. I'd have to lean toward the former.

Bob Ryan just copied this and posted it on twitter.

In all seriousness, I'm not sure why people would even get into specifics this far out. I would have just said...models show some indication of a storm for next week. That's it. I wouldn't have even qualified it with "big" storm.

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Ok, coming out of lurking status temporarily. I'm flying into PBI from BWI Thursday night for a wedding Friday, returning Saturday afternoon. What do y'all think of the likelihood of these flights being delayed or worse? I just can't seem to get a grasp on what's happening with this storm (although it looks like I'm not alone...)

(I realize this may not belong in the Mid-Atlantic thread, but bear with me please!)

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Bob Ryan just copied this and posted it on twitter.

In all seriousness, I'm not sure why people would even get into specifics this far out. I would have just said...models show some indication of a storm for next week. That's it. I wouldn't have even qualified it with "big" storm.

I agree. I mean it's okay to speculate on areas more likely to see action in various scenarios that have been shown by models, but to say this storm is going to be "apocalyptic" or "will make a comet impact blush" is ridiculous.

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GFS takes a step towards the euro, though it happens later and the storm still goes OTS

It does look like at least the blocking and negative tilt trough are getting more like the euro. It will be interesting looking at the ens members to see how many more have fled the gfs solution. It, the gfs may still be right as it has the ukmet in its corner but.....a scenario with a storm tracking near or into the northeast doesn't look farfetched to me. It's still way too early to speculate about any deterministic forecasts unless someone likes to fantasize.

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Ok, coming out of lurking status temporarily. I'm flying into PBI from BWI Thursday night for a wedding Friday, returning Saturday afternoon. What do y'all think of the likelihood of these flights being delayed or worse? I just can't seem to get a grasp on what's happening with this storm (although it looks like I'm not alone...)

(I realize this may not belong in the Mid-Atlantic thread, but bear with me please!)

Your fine... Everything points to it being sufficiently off the coast of Florida at that time frame and becoming cloudy at BWI.

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Bob Ryan just copied this and posted it on twitter.

In all seriousness, I'm not sure why people would even get into specifics this far out. I would have just said...models show some indication of a storm for next week. That's it. I wouldn't have even qualified it with "big" storm.

IMO, if the HPC mentions "big" storm, I think there is enough confidence to use the term.

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The 12z GFS ensembles are pretty gung-ho on the New England event, continuing the trend from 06z. However, they may be more clustered instead of widely divergent. Overall, mostly a miss for everyone.

I imagine a solution like this could result in a snowstorm for areas that never get snow during October. Pretty decent height falls behind the system, moisture just needs to be there.

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Has the trend over the last year or 2 been for Fall/Winter storms to phase late and effect New England and mainly spare the Mid Atlantic? I see no different here, even though it may be a bit more of a complicated situation.

holy **** youre alive

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