Fozz Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 On some of the more 'catastrophic' looking model suites you have to favor PA and elevations to our west for biggest snowfalls for sure. It's fun to toy with the idea of a large snowfall at this time of the year though here. Imagine this is two years in a row we have tracked such an event? Yeah even in the worst case scenario, I'm thinking you'd have to drive north or west to see anything meaningful if you're looking for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 After last year, I don't care to see snow in October ever again if it means such a pitiful winter to follow People in our region need to relax. Aside from the derecho, when was the last time we had some really exciting weather in our area? I'm not talking about a strong line of storms or some weak supercell action during an afternoon in the summer. When was the last time? The October snow last year? Sure, but that didn't affect the majority of the people that post in these threads. The remnants of Irene? Maybe. Aside from the derecho, you might have to go all the way back to the winter of 09-10 to see some really exciting stuff. People shouldn't get their panties in a bunch when someone says the weather around here is boring. It's an opinion that is no worse than the majority of the forecasts that are thrown around all year long. Like it too. That means 18+ up in fuzzieland, right? I'd argue that the MA's interesting weather occurs much less frequently than other areas, but I just don't have the time right now to do the research to support that and I also don't want to further pollute this thread with banter. When I do get time, I'll pull the data and post it even if it doesn't support my opinion. Right. And your opinion sucks. Time for a banter thread? My wife and I are heading to Disneyworld on Nov 1st. Any disruption to our flight because of foul weather (snow) would be epic. Stay classy! Incapable of having an adult discussion, I see. Not sure where Ian and Midlo are, but I'm going to step in soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I've been reading all of them from your Mid Atlantic forum to the New England forum. It's good to see what each regions better posters are thinking. Thanks. I need all the readership I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Yeah even in the worst case scenario, I'm thinking you'd have to drive north or west to see anything meaningful if you're looking for snow. True, although the insane dynamics of a euro type situation is what it would take for any type of accumulated snowfall anywhere near the metros at this time of the year. Imagine 70's this week and snow next week This is what I live for as a weather enthusiast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Not sure where Ian and Midlo are, but I'm going to step in soon. I work every now and then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 New rule to everyone. If you're going to get a annoyed by others going OT don't do if yourself. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Yoda is slipping. Here is the 168 and 192 hr euro ens mean. Hpc is now locked into it's solution with a stronger surface low. It and the majority of the ggem ensembles are now going for a hybrid storm scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I work every now and then I literally meant I didn't know where you were. I checked the "Who's Online" box and neither you nor Midlo were online. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Sorry Wes I will make it up by showing you the GGEM ensemble mean which gives us a very rainy Sunday http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/00zggemensemblep12132.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Sorry Wes I will make it up by showing you the GGEM ensemble mean which gives us a very rainy Sunday http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12132.gif It's pretty much with the euro. the rain on us suggests some members are west of the mean (I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It's pretty much with the euro. the rain on us suggests some members are west of the mean (I think). The ensemble mean suggests 2-4 inches of rain across the LWX CWA, so some members must be way west (yes its the crappy GGEM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I didn't see this posted, but the 6z GFS ensemble mean is MUCH closer to the Euro/GGEM solution than the GFS op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 People waffle too much with mid-range model shifts. There was no reason to get into specifics Sunday or yesterday if it means you report every swing "models show less likely, models show more likely" subsequently. Big storm off coast.. some impact likely. Impact could be big. Not sure if it's just to make a story or if weatherpeople feel like they have to give more than the science can currently offer. I'd have to lean toward the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 People waffle too much with mid-range model shifts. There was no reason to get into specifics Sunday or yesterday if it means you report every swing "models show less likely, models show more likely" subsequently. Big storm off coast.. some impact likely. Impact could be big. Not sure if it's just to make a story or if weatherpeople feel like they have to give more than the science can currently offer. I'd have to lean toward the former. Bob Ryan just copied this and posted it on twitter. In all seriousness, I'm not sure why people would even get into specifics this far out. I would have just said...models show some indication of a storm for next week. That's it. I wouldn't have even qualified it with "big" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdguy429 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Ok, coming out of lurking status temporarily. I'm flying into PBI from BWI Thursday night for a wedding Friday, returning Saturday afternoon. What do y'all think of the likelihood of these flights being delayed or worse? I just can't seem to get a grasp on what's happening with this storm (although it looks like I'm not alone...) (I realize this may not belong in the Mid-Atlantic thread, but bear with me please!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Bob Ryan just copied this and posted it on twitter. In all seriousness, I'm not sure why people would even get into specifics this far out. I would have just said...models show some indication of a storm for next week. That's it. I wouldn't have even qualified it with "big" storm. I agree. I mean it's okay to speculate on areas more likely to see action in various scenarios that have been shown by models, but to say this storm is going to be "apocalyptic" or "will make a comet impact blush" is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GFS takes a step towards the euro, though it happens later and the storm still goes OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GFS takes a step towards the euro, though it happens later and the storm still goes OTS It does look like at least the blocking and negative tilt trough are getting more like the euro. It will be interesting looking at the ens members to see how many more have fled the gfs solution. It, the gfs may still be right as it has the ukmet in its corner but.....a scenario with a storm tracking near or into the northeast doesn't look farfetched to me. It's still way too early to speculate about any deterministic forecasts unless someone likes to fantasize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Ok, coming out of lurking status temporarily. I'm flying into PBI from BWI Thursday night for a wedding Friday, returning Saturday afternoon. What do y'all think of the likelihood of these flights being delayed or worse? I just can't seem to get a grasp on what's happening with this storm (although it looks like I'm not alone...) (I realize this may not belong in the Mid-Atlantic thread, but bear with me please!) Your fine... Everything points to it being sufficiently off the coast of Florida at that time frame and becoming cloudy at BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Here's the latest CWG article on the storm. The article shows ens member tracks for the canadian, us and ukmet weather servicees. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/tropical-storm-sandy-threatens-four-different-countries-in-coming-days-including-us/2012/10/23/6f859d44-1d23-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html#pagebreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 12z CMC misses WIDE right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Bob Ryan just copied this and posted it on twitter. In all seriousness, I'm not sure why people would even get into specifics this far out. I would have just said...models show some indication of a storm for next week. That's it. I wouldn't have even qualified it with "big" storm. IMO, if the HPC mentions "big" storm, I think there is enough confidence to use the term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Has the trend over the last year or 2 been for Fall/Winter storms to phase late and effect New England and mainly spare the Mid Atlantic? I see no different here, even though it may be a bit more of a complicated situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The 12z GFS ensembles are pretty gung-ho on the New England event, continuing the trend from 06z. However, they may be more clustered instead of widely divergent. Overall, mostly a miss for everyone. I imagine a solution like this could result in a snowstorm for areas that never get snow during October. Pretty decent height falls behind the system, moisture just needs to be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 12z Euro, always the weenie killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Has the trend over the last year or 2 been for Fall/Winter storms to phase late and effect New England and mainly spare the Mid Atlantic? I see no different here, even though it may be a bit more of a complicated situation. holy **** youre alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 12z Euro, always the weenie killer. I'm waiting for Ian's blow by blow account of what it is forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 12z GFS Ensemble Mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 12z GFS Ensemble Mean Looks a lot like last night's euro ens mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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