Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Hurricane Sandy


Wonderdog

Recommended Posts

If only we could live in Florida where we can agonize over whether the high temp will be 91 or 92 and whether the popcorn convection will actually occur IMBY for 6 months out of the year. Now that's excitement!

Yeah, this 4 seasons stuff is SO boring.

I think it may be time for the filter

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Thanks for your thoughts on the euro, Wes!

Adam and I were emailing about it this morning - until the Pac s/w gets sampled, its really a big "guess" as to whether Sandy will go OTS or not. Hopefully by Thursday/Friday the models will be in better agreement.

I'm more interested than yesterday as the blocking is impressive and would be pretty excited about something happening if I lived in New England as they could get big rains even without a direct hit if they get and inverted trough with any type of surface development north of the low even if it goes out to sea.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ive noticed a few of our usuals are posting more in SNE than our thread :(

must better weather posters there plus they are way more active. they have better weather. All we have in our forums who is a professional is Wes. They have like 12 guys

Link to comment
Share on other sites

meh... I like having it calmer around here :) The big, consolidated threads can be difficult to keep up with sometimes.

I'm liking what the latest euro ensembles are showing as far as keying in on the correct solution, with the GFS ensembles not being too far off in the grand scheme of things.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The european ens has come quite a bit west and now gives much more support to the ecmwf making this a really interesting forecast. The blocking the ens mean shows and the negative tilt trough increase the odds of the storm getting captured by the upper trough so I think Jason's (CWG) odds of over a 50% chance of someone along the east coast being impacted by the storm is now a pretty good call. We're still so far from the event lots can change but the strong blocking makes amplification of the approaching trough more likely than not which may make the overall pattern a little more predictable than normal. Still, the timing of the amplification and the how fast and where the storm initially tracks will help decide where the system actually goes.

So you're thinking 5 to 10" for DC? Cool.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

meh... I like having it calmer around here :) The big, consolidated threads can be difficult to keep up with sometimes.

This. I find it easier to just flip through the regions and read the storm threads. If you had all the regions posting in one thread, it would quickly become unreadable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If only we could live in Florida where we can agonize over whether the high temp will be 91 or 92 and whether the popcorn convection will actually occur IMBY for 6 months out of the year. Now that's excitement!

Yeah, this 4 seasons stuff is SO boring.

People in our region need to relax. Aside from the derecho, when was the last time we had some really exciting weather in our area? I'm not talking about a strong line of storms or some weak supercell action during an afternoon in the summer. When was the last time? The October snow last year? Sure, but that didn't affect the majority of the people that post in these threads. The remnants of Irene? Maybe. Aside from the derecho, you might have to go all the way back to the winter of 09-10 to see some really exciting stuff. People shouldn't get their panties in a bunch when someone says the weather around here is boring. It's an opinion that is no worse than the majority of the forecasts that are thrown around all year long.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

People in our region need to relax. Aside from the derecho, when was the last time we had some really exciting weather in our area? I'm not talking about a strong line of storms or some weak supercell action during an afternoon in the summer. When was the last time? The October snow last year? Sure, but that didn't affect the majority of the people that post in these threads. The remnants of Irene? Maybe. Aside from the derecho, you might have to go all the way back to the winter of 09-10 to see some really exciting stuff. People shouldn't get their panties in a bunch when someone says the weather around here is boring. It's an opinion that is no worse than the majority of the forecasts that are thrown around all year long.

It's like that all across the country. If you have the stats showing other areas routinely see more big events than the Mid-Atlantic, I'll take my words back.

EDIT: I'd certainly take this over anywhere in the Southwest.

Also, don't forget the 6/1 tornado outbreak (that I missed :()

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The european ens has come quite a bit west and now gives much more support to the ecmwf making this a really interesting forecast. The blocking the ens mean shows and the negative tilt trough increase the odds of the storm getting captured by the upper trough so I think Jason's (CWG) odds of over a 50% chance of someone along the east coast being impacted by the storm is now a pretty good call. We're still so far from the event lots can change but the strong blocking makes amplification of the approaching trough more likely than not which may make the overall pattern a little more predictable than normal. Still, the timing of the amplification and the how fast and where the storm initially tracks will help decide where the system actually goes.

It's certainly got my attention having a reliable set of guidance like the EC ensembles actually improve from yesterday. I was thinking a possible solution of an inv trough and possible wave development along it giving us some rain and gusty winds...but the possibility exists for something more interesting. I'm kind of torn because the euro op and canadian solutions are so outrageous, but the upper level pattern gets highly amplified too. Anyways, I know this isn't the SNE thread. :(

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's like that all across the country. If you have the stats showing other areas routinely see more big events than the Mid-Atlantic, I'll take my words back.

I'd certainly take this over anywhere in the Southwest.

Oh, I get it that the rest of the country isn't exactly dealing with exciting weather every day, week or month. I simply stated that our weather is rather ho hum and I see nothing wrong with saying as much.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh, I get it that the rest of the country isn't exactly dealing with exciting weather every day, week or month. I simply stated that our weather is rather ho hum and I see nothing wrong with saying as much.

And I'm saying that there's not many parts of the country that DO get exciting weather on a regular basis. Yeah, some areas get more snow and some get more severe weather and tropical activity, but I like to think that the Mid-Atlantic gets a fairly even blend of all of these things.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's certainly got my attention having a reliable set of guidance like the EC ensembles actually improve from yesterday. I was thinking a possible solution of an inv trough and possible wave development along it giving us some rain and gusty winds...but the possibility exists for something more interesting. I'm kind of torn because the euro op and canadian solutions are so outrageous, but the upper level pattern gets highly amplified too. Anyways, I know this isn't the SNE thread. :(

You're always welcome here.

And you're seconding Wes forecast of 5 to 10". Bold. I like it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And I'm saying that there's not many parts of the country that DO get exciting weather on a regular basis. Yeah, some areas get more snow and some get more severe weather and tropical activity, but I like to think that the Mid-Atlantic gets a fairly even blend of all of these things.

I'd argue that the MA's interesting weather occurs much less frequently than other areas, but I just don't have the time right now to do the research to support that and I also don't want to further pollute this thread with banter. When I do get time, I'll pull the data and post it even if it doesn't support my opinion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If only we could live in Florida where we can agonize over whether the high temp will be 91 or 92 and whether the popcorn convection will actually occur IMBY for 6 months out of the year. Now that's excitement!

Yeah, this 4 seasons stuff is SO boring.

My wife and I are heading to Disneyworld on Nov 1st. Any disruption to our flight because of foul weather (snow) would be epic.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...