AmericanWxFreak Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Could the air flow behind the midwest storm wont have any downstream influence on placement of the tropical low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Could the air flow behind the midwest storm wont have any downstream influence on placement of the tropical low? I'm not sure what you are trying to ask but the placement and strength of the various upper level systems that will be approaching the east coast as the tropical system moves nwd will have an effect on the storm. It's way to early to know exactly what effect. I think the most likely solution is somewhere between the 12Z european model and the more eastward solutions but that is just a wag and any of the solutions are still on the table. The nogaps and canadian are probably the least likely but again they are not impossible solutions. we're still probably a week or more away from any east coast impact so the handling of all the players might be different than shown on the progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 No one does but I don't see the ggem being a likely solution and wouldn't be surprised if the euro trended towards its ensemble mean which is well east of cape cod. That said, I wouldn't completely throw out the euro and it would give us wind and maybe some light rain. The big problem with making any definitive statement is the shortwave that is supposed to capture the storm is still way out. I look at this as being similar to a snowstorm that needs phasing to succeed. Easier for New England but even they can get shafted. Granted, I think it's unlikely we'll get a disastrous storm around here. I guess in some ways it's all or nothing.. so you can't completely rule it out. But, I think overall, almost every big storm from this range would be a very low probability event, or "unlikely." Maybe it's because it's been boring, and it mixes tropics with winter, but we've got a big range in outcomes currently presented. Dunno why people even have to have specifics on local impact anywhere. Story seems there's a good chance a large storm will be brewing offshore.. if it were to impact someone it could be high impact. Not much else is (was) certain today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 00z GFS looked better with the trough... but Sandy was too far east for it to do much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 CMC coming in east of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 CMC coming in east of 12z Like one million miles OTS then somehow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The lolz continue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Nothing to see on the 6z as it is east and only brushes the cape up in SNE. It is going to take a whole lot of mojo to get this storm to do anything like what was shown a day or two ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I'm surprised this hasn't been posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Oct. 29 is the new Dec. 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Stole this from SNE (Euro snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I'm surprised this hasn't been posted purrrty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I'm surprised this hasn't been posted Nobody cares about Murrlyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Stole this from SNE (Euro snow) Oh...to be back in college in Central PA for this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 As far as weather goes, MD is about as boring as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I'm surprised this hasn't been posted Well...it would make sense in MD, seeing how NE Carroll and Northern Baltimore have the highest elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Nobody cares about Murrlyn. shut your face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 shut your face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 sorry guess you didn't get the sarcasm in that whatevs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 ive noticed a few of our usuals are posting more in SNE than our thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 ive noticed a few of our usuals are posting more in SNE than our thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 ive noticed a few of our usuals are posting more in SNE than our thread I hate subforums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 ive noticed a few of our usuals are posting more in SNE than our thread I've been reading all of them from your Mid Atlantic forum to the New England forum. It's good to see what each regions better posters are thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 As far as weather goes, MD is about as boring as it gets. If only we could live in Florida where we can agonize over whether the high temp will be 91 or 92 and whether the popcorn convection will actually occur IMBY for 6 months out of the year. Now that's excitement! Yeah, this 4 seasons stuff is SO boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The european ens has come quite a bit west and now gives much more support to the ecmwf making this a really interesting forecast. The blocking the ens mean shows and the negative tilt trough increase the odds of the storm getting captured by the upper trough so I think Jason's (CWG) odds of over a 50% chance of someone along the east coast being impacted by the storm is now a pretty good call. We're still so far from the event lots can change but the strong blocking makes amplification of the approaching trough more likely than not which may make the overall pattern a little more predictable than normal. Still, the timing of the amplification and the how fast and where the storm initially tracks will help decide where the system actually goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I hate subforums. I wish this whole discussion would be consolidated in one main thread, it would be a lot easier to follow. It seems the New England subforum one is drawing the most attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Borrowed from the Philly thread 0z GFS ens ind: 6z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The european ens has come quite a bit west and now gives much more support to the ecmwf making this a really interesting forecast. The blocking the ens mean shows and the negative tilt trough increase the odds of the storm getting captured by the upper trough so I think Jason's (CWG) odds of over a 50% chance of someone along the east coast being impacted by the storm is now a pretty good call. We're still so far from the event lots can change but the strong blocking makes amplification of the approaching trough more likely than not which may make the overall pattern a little more predictable than normal. Still, the timing of the amplification and the how fast and where the storm initially tracks will help decide where the system actually goes. Thanks for your thoughts on the euro, Wes! Adam and I were emailing about it this morning - until the Pac s/w gets sampled, its really a big "guess" as to whether Sandy will go OTS or not. Hopefully by Thursday/Friday the models will be in better agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I wish this whole discussion would be consolidated in one main thread, it would be a lot easier to follow. It seems the New England subforum one is drawing the most attention. ya it is. Its where the most posters are. I agree though wish it could all be one main thread so everyone from every region could contribute their thoughts with one archive to look through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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