Bob Chill Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 It also pushed it back a few days. I'm sure the ne forum guys are stoked and are ready to buy what the ecmwf is cooking. I was kinda wondering about the speed as well. Tropicals are notoriously tough to pinpoint at longer leads (stating the obvious) but it really applies here. I figure NHC will start it's forecast track stuff tomorrow. Until we really start to get a handle on track and intensity it's kinda dangerous hugging a global or 2 at this point. Edit: I obviously didn't check nhc's 2pm update when I made this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 On to the 18z GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 On to the 18z GFS! We can already discount the gfs I don't like its track record therefore its solution must be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 WAIT! Jb posted the JMA - Myrtle Beach Hit! https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/260462734204870657/photo/1?utm_source=fb&utm_medium=fb&utm_campaign=BigJoeBastardi&utm_content=260462734204870657 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Probably if it is correct, still a big if as there are likely to be more changes to the approaching trof over the next couple of days. We've still got the ggem and nogaps, that stellar duo. so the euro has gone from Erie to Cape Cod over the past run? With this "storm" or whatever it is or isn't, I think we should really focus our attention on a more realistic probability of getting 50-60 MPH wind gusts for a sustained period of time. That is the scary part of this forecast. Snow? Bah - we wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 With this "storm" or whatever it is or isn't, I think we should really focus our attention on a more realistic probability of getting 50-60 MPH wind gusts for a sustained period of time. That is the scary part of this forecast. Snow? Bah - we wish. As a person from North Carolina..... I find it amusing to watch the armageddon type reacting and worry about a cat 1 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 WAIT! Jb posted the JMA - Myrtle Beach Hit! https://twitter.com/...462734204870657 myrtle beach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 As a person from North Carolina..... I find it amusing to watch the armageddon type reacting and worry about a cat 1 storm So it's dead set that a cat 1 will be the outcome? This likely will not be fully tropical so I don't really think you can characterize the potential impact to the EC in terms of the saffir simpson scale. While not necessarily likely at this point - this could have a much higher impact than a cat 1 storm if some of the stronger/further west models are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 So it's dead set that a cat 1 will be the outcome? This likely will not be fully tropical so I don't really think you can characterize the potential impact to the EC in terms of the saffir simpson scale. While not necessarily likely at this point - this could have a much higher impact than a cat 1 storm if some of the stronger/further west models are correct. It's often overlooked that once you get N of obx, noreasters are much more destructive than hurricanes. In this case, I'm not exactly sure how to classify some of the retrograding solutions if one was to verify though. It's nothing traditional in either sense of a noreaster or a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 myrtle beach? yeah i was wondering that too. a straight line from prior point would not hit myrtle tho the qpf max is near there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 From DT Wxrisk.com STEPHANIE if the Canadian is right ...IF IF .,.IF this storm would wipe Ocean city flat exceeding any storm since 1900 for that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I can't believe he would even go to say things like that at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I can't believe he would even go to say things like that at this stage. I mean, it is model interpretation and not a forecast. But still, I'm not sure I'd be throwing that out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I can't believe he would even go to say things like that at this stage. I believe it. It's been his MO since he went off the deep end. The statement is truthful though. IF it did happen then wow, it would be a natural disaster. If various models continue to show similar solutions then accuwx is going start hyping like we've never seen them hype before.....if that's even possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I mean, it is model interpretation and not a forecast. But still, I'm not sure I'd be throwing that out there. He can hype without claiming to hype. It gets people's attention, drawing in more hits, but he can always wiggle out of it by claiming that what he's saying isn't a forecast. He knows full well what he's doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Hopefully TD 19 gets named first. Tony is a cooler big storm name. Plus everyone would be wrong calling it Sandy already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 forget that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Hopefully TD 19 gets named first. Tony is a cooler big storm name. Plus everyone would be wrong calling it Sandy already. This. Tony fits better for the northeast, and the latter part is just hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 He knows full well what he's doing. That's what bothers me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I mean, it is model interpretation and not a forecast. But still, I'm not sure I'd be throwing that out there. IT WALLOPS WALLOPS ISLAND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 This. Tony fits better for the northeast, and the latter part is just hilarious. the one plus is i called tony as an azores crapicane like 12 days ago https://twitter.com/...558830551449602 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 This. Tony fits better for the northeast, and the latter part is just hilarious. or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 the one plus is i called tony as an azores crapicane like 12 days ago https://twitter.com/...558830551449602 Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 And we have Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I just tried to edit the thread title. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I dunno why locals are calling it a likely miss. I call it a no one has any clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I just tried to edit the thread title. Sigh. You lost the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I dunno why locals are calling it a likely miss. I call it a no one has any clue. No idea either... I mean its probably like a 60/40 miss/hit of something... but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I dunno why locals are calling it a likely miss. I call it a no one has any clue. No one does but I don't see the ggem being a likely solution and wouldn't be surprised if the euro trended towards its ensemble mean which is well east of cape cod. That said, I wouldn't completely throw out the euro and it would give us wind and maybe some light rain. The big problem with making any definitive statement is the shortwave that is supposed to capture the storm is still way out. I look at this as being similar to a snowstorm that needs phasing to succeed. Easier for New England but even they can get shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 FWIW, Sandy looks to be a tad stronger and slightly west on the 18z GFS so far. EDIT: Nevermind, it was west. Heading NE later in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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