chris87 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 On 10/28/2012 at 3:53 AM, Ian said: pretty insane...central NJ landfall is probably a worse case scenario for those folks in NY/LI/CT, right [not real familiar with the surge impacts up that way]? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 what we lack in top speed we get back in longevity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 GFS says 3-5 inches of rain N VA and off to the N and E through 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 On 10/28/2012 at 3:54 AM, chris87 said: pretty insane...central NJ landfall is probably a worse case scenario for those folks in NY/LI/CT, right [not real familiar with the surge impacts up that way]? I think in terms of surge they want it to swing out and come in across LI like a few of the earlier runs today tried to do. That would push more water up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sheesh. GFS is quite a hit. 952 @ LF smack dab in the middle of NJ then drifts over philly @ 956 and then floats along the mason dixon and then parks over the WV panhandle until it gets tired. Good god it's going to be windy and WET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Small area in NE MD has 900mb winds 90kts at 54 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 On 10/28/2012 at 3:55 AM, PhineasC said: I think in terms of surge they want it to swing out and come in across LI like a few of the earlier runs today tried to do. That would push more water up. these runs are really bad for the sound etc. that area could truly be devastated if it comes to pass right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 There is a 522 dm ull over us. It has to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Ian, are 57 and 60 basically the same 900mb wind-wise as 51 and 54 are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 On 10/28/2012 at 3:53 AM, Ian said: right around here is when the whole megalopolis goes dark This is a damn funny post. I laughed. It's comical on so many levels...and then reality sets in because it's real. Literally millions without power. Literally billions in property damage. And not a damn thing that can be done about it except preparing, staying safe, and helping your neighbors when it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 On 10/28/2012 at 3:59 AM, Ian said: these runs are really bad for the sound etc. that area could truly be devastated if it comes to pass right. It's what ctblizzard wants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 On 10/28/2012 at 4:00 AM, yoda said: Ian, are 57 and 60 basically the same 900mb wind-wise as 51 and 54 are? those were all posted to twitter. im tempted to sign up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 On 10/28/2012 at 4:00 AM, Ji said: It's what ctblizzard wants i dunno.. i think there's a point where you don't want what you see anymore. of course he doesnt live at the coast so im sure he's still chugging along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 On 10/28/2012 at 3:58 AM, yoda said: Small area in NE MD has 900mb winds 90kts at 54 hrs Hello! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 On 10/28/2012 at 4:02 AM, Ian said: those were all posted to twitter. im tempted to sign up. he makes very pretty pictures... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 On 10/28/2012 at 3:55 AM, Ian said: what we lack in top speed we get back in longevity Lack? There is like 90KTS over Baltimore! lol. How much does 900mb transfer down? Guessing gust to 80mph on that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 On 10/28/2012 at 4:19 AM, EasternUSWX said: Lack? There is like 90KTS over Baltimore! lol. How much does 900mb transfer down? Guessing gust to 80mph on that map? i'd be a bit concerned (or relieved) about how effective we'll be at mixing those winds down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 00Z GFS hour 54 text output for KDCA. 95 knots at 850 hpa and 86 at 900 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=kdca&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h54&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Ukie is central NJ as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 On 10/28/2012 at 4:21 AM, green tube said: which raises the question.... how long does it take to return power to several million people? Overall? 2 weeks tops if I had to guess. Vast majority? A week. Individually is the fun part. Why your power is out and where u live means everything. If u live on a rural road where your downed line serves 6 houses then you better hope you have a generator or you'll know exactly how your great grandaddy's granddaddy lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 850mb winds are much stronger this run, especially down into western VA through the Shenandoah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 max: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Re: converting 900 mb winds to surface... I talked to Wes about this earlier and he said - back of the envelope - reduce them by 20 percent (that's assuming little/no instability to mix them down)... When you do the math, the numbers are still ominous! Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The GGEM and UKMET now basically agree with the GFS and Euro. We appear to have consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 On 10/28/2012 at 4:41 AM, capitalweather said: Re: converting 900 mb winds to surface... I talked to Wes about this earlier and he said - back of the envelope - reduce them by 20 percent (that's assuming little/no instability to mix them down)... When you do the math, the numbers are still ominous! Jason I thought you reduce 850mb winds 20% Would think 900mb would be like 15%. And ya still it's going to be hella windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 850mb winds to the surface you reduce by 75 to 80 percent, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 On 10/28/2012 at 4:41 AM, capitalweather said: Re: converting 900 mb winds to surface... I talked to Wes about this earlier and he said - back of the envelope - reduce them by 20 percent (that's assuming little/no instability to mix them down)... When you do the math, the numbers are still ominous! Jason So lets say the map above Ian posted was 80 kts. I multiply *.8 and get 64 kts. Thats ~75 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Those soundings did show a very slow temp decrease with height..IOW, it will take some sort of heavy precip drag I think to mix down a lot of it..but it's possible in those areas that get heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 On 10/28/2012 at 4:44 AM, CoastalWx said: Those soundings did show a very slow temp decrease with height..IOW, it will take some sort of heavy precip drag I think to mix down a lot of it..but it's possible in those areas that get heavy rain. exactly, those % extrapolations to the surface might be valid in a tropical-like sounding (like you see north of the center) but south of the center, the inversion is strong...we'll see strong gusts mixed down with any convective elements in the rainbands...but i'd take a step back on the expectations of assuming only a 15% or 20% reduction of 900 mb winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 On 10/28/2012 at 4:47 AM, chris87 said: exactly, those % extrapolations to the surface might be valid in a tropical-like sounding (like you see north of the center) but south of the center, the inversion is strong...we'll see strong gusts mixed down with any convective elements in the rainbands...but i'd take a step back on the expectations of assuming only a 15% or 20% reduction of 900 mb winds... It may be tricky though because heavier elements of rain may bring it down. Tough to really say. Even up here there is some inversion with strong WAA aloft too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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