usedtobe Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 10:56 PM, Ian said: those maps are kinda useless in marginal situations... good luck if you arent in elevation youll need it Yep, they don't seem to care what the boundary layer temps are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I've read that a landfall in southern NJ would actually have stronger winds here than a direct hit. How about a landfall in NNJ/NYC? Irene-type winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 8:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 26 Location: 27.5°N 77.2°W Moving: N at 7 mph Min pressure: 970 mb Max sustained: 75 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What are the criteria for strong winds? I figure that it is higher than windy/very windy... so does that mean winds of 50mph or higher are expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 11:33 PM, nj2va said: I've read that a landfall in southern NJ would actually have stronger winds here than a direct hit. How about a landfall in NNJ/NYC? Irene-type winds? It's going to be a Nor'easter and not an actual hurricane, so the maximum winds are usually spread out from the central core of the storm. But this is a new thing we're seeing, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 8pm update: (Courtesy: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 11:58 PM, Coach McGuirk said: It's going to be a Nor'easter and not an actual hurricane, so the maximum winds are usually spread out from the central core of the storm. But this is a new thing we're seeing, we'll see. Thanks...makes sense. Will be interesting to see where the models eventually zero in on and how they handle the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Comparison between the 18z GFS and the IAD sounding from Isabel 72403 IAD Sterling Observations at 00Z 19 Sep 2003 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT THTA THTE THTV hPa m C C % g/kg deg knot K K K ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1000.0 59 997.0 93 19.4 18.4 94 13.54 55 49 292.8 331.4 295.2 938.1 610 17.0 16.1 95 12.44 60 52 295.5 331.4 297.7 925.0 729 16.4 15.6 95 12.19 60 56 296.1 331.4 298.2 905.1 914 15.9 15.3 96 12.19 70 71 297.4 333.0 299.6 850.0 1450 14.6 14.3 98 12.20 85 71 301.4 337.6 303.6 812.8 1829 13.7 13.4 98 12.02 95 71 304.4 340.4 306.5 809.0 1869 13.6 13.3 98 12.00 95 71 304.6 340.7 306.9 728.7 2743 9.6 9.0 97 10.01 105 81 309.5 340.3 311.3 702.6 3048 8.1 7.5 96 9.38 110 72 311.1 340.2 312.9 700.0 3079 8.0 7.4 96 9.31 110 73 311.3 340.2 313.1 651.7 3658 5.1 4.7 97 8.26 110 72 314.5 340.6 316.0 72403 IAD Sterling Observations at 06Z 19 Sep 2003 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT THTA THTE THTV hPa m C C % g/kg deg knot K K K ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1000.0 -18 988.0 93 20.6 19.2 92 14.38 130 15 294.8 336.1 297.3 963.7 305 19.1 17.8 92 13.52 130 32 295.3 334.3 297.7 929.7 610 16.9 15.9 94 12.35 130 55 296.2 331.9 298.4 925.0 653 16.6 15.6 94 12.19 130 55 296.3 331.6 298.4 897.0 914 15.1 14.2 94 11.51 140 56 297.4 331.0 299.4 865.3 1219 13.4 12.7 95 10.76 140 66 298.7 330.3 300.6 850.0 1370 12.6 11.9 96 10.40 140 72 299.3 330.0 301.2 834.6 1524 12.3 11.8 97 10.54 140 73 300.6 331.9 302.5 804.8 1829 11.8 11.7 99 10.82 150 63 303.2 335.6 305.2 791.0 1974 11.6 11.6 100 10.96 152 60 304.5 337.4 306.5 776.0 2134 10.9 10.9 100 10.69 155 57 305.4 337.8 307.4 748.1 2438 9.7 9.7 100 10.19 155 57 307.3 338.3 309.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr2 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The 8:00 advisory from NHC still has a funky turn and the storm over top of Baltimore City, Baltimore County, and Harford County by Tuesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Are those 85 to 90 kt winds at the 850 and 900mb level MN Transplant? Wow... And your comparison is showing Sandy will be stronger than Isabel, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 12:09 AM, yoda said: Are those 85 to 90 kt winds at the 850 and 900mb level MN Transplant? Wow... And your comparison is showing Sandy will be stronger than Isabel, correct? Looks like yes on both counts. Not a guarantee that what happens at 850 translates to the surface, but it is certainly interesting. I'll check a few more soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 11:10 PM, jonjon said: Per the 18Z GFS, its still snowing out here on Saturday. Those who can't come out this way to see the storm in action would still be able to see the results if they came next weekend. That is, if the GFS is correct, of course. Was wondering when you'd turn up. I gotta find a way to get west of the apps 4.5 Liquid!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 12:15 AM, MN Transplant said: Looks like yes on both counts. Not a guarantee that what happens at 850 translates to the surface, but it is certainly interesting. I'll check a few more soundings. That inversion looks strong enough to put a sizable damper on any winds that try to mix down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 12:17 AM, Ellinwood said: That inversion looks strong enough to put a sizable damper on any winds that try to mix down. Interesting. So you're suggesting possible underperform in surface winds? That would be welcome news from the "no power for a week would not be fun" camp. No power for four days ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 12:23 AM, Don Cherry said: Interesting. So you're suggesting possible underperform in surface winds? That would be welcome news from the "no power for a week would not be fun" camp. No power for four days ftw! Not at all. Surface winds will be surface winds. The inversion suggests gusts may not reach the maximum potential of 85-90 kts seen on the sounding, but gusts could still peak out around strong TS/weak Cat 1 speeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Only gusted to 48 at IAD during Isabel. DCA 58, BWI 54, Andrews 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 12:32 AM, MN Transplant said: Only gusted to 48 at IAD during Isabel. DCA 58, BWI 54, Andrews 66. This isn't Isabel. Isabel landed in NC and went to WV. They had lots of flooding in Maryland due to the storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Doesn't take mega winds to knock down trees after 24 hours of moderate rain. If we get sustained 50-60 MPH with higher gusts there will be serious issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 12:38 AM, Coach McGuirk said: This isn't Isabel. Isabel landed in NC and went to WV. They had lots of flooding in Maryland due to the storm surge. I think he is saying it could be worse given Isabel is remembered as the last bad tropical storm around here (Irene was a joke). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 12:27 AM, Ellinwood said: Not at all. Surface winds will be surface winds. The inversion suggests gusts may not reach the maximum potential of 85-90 kts seen on the sounding, but gusts could still peak out around strong TS/weak Cat 1 speeds. Well I wasn't expecting 100 mph wind gusts anyway lol. 20% deduction would be 75-80 mph (if that's the correct deduction to surface winds from the 900/850mb level to surface) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 12:32 AM, MN Transplant said: Only gusted to 48 at IAD during Isabel. DCA 58, BWI 54, Andrews 66. I could be wrong, but recall hearing about a 67(?) mph gust at Martin State Airport at around 1:30 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 12:17 AM, Ellinwood said: That inversion looks strong enough to put a sizable damper on any winds that try to mix down. That looks pretty close to isothermal overall. Certainly a weak inversion there between ~925 and 850 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 18Z GFS from Meteostar, for Martinsburg, WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 12:46 AM, WVclimo said: 18Z GFS from Meteostar, for Martinsburg, WV that makes for a raw evening in the panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Gusts DCA 45, IAD 44, BWI 40 during 2/10/10 98 during Hazel Just trying to get an idea of historical winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 12:27 AM, Ellinwood said: Not at all. Surface winds will be surface winds. The inversion suggests gusts may not reach the maximum potential of 85-90 kts seen on the sounding, but gusts could still peak out around strong TS/weak Cat 1 speeds. Thanks for that. Looking for silver linings in the storm clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 12:43 AM, MiddleRvrwx said: I could be wrong, but recall hearing about a 67(?) mph gust at Martin State Airport at around 1:30 a.m. That could be right. Some of the GA airports will gen punished here. If BWI is the peak gust airport in this storm, the BW corridor will be in a wold of hurt. ACY numbers should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 12:39 AM, PhineasC said: I think he is saying it could be worse given Isabel is remembered as the last bad tropical storm around here (Irene was a joke). Irene really wasn't that bad even here in Hampton, VA. I guess I was lucky to be on the left side this time as opposed to the right side with Isabel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Could we see TS Watches/Warnings from NHC up here? Or will they likely be handled by local WFOs with wind advisories and high wind warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 12:47 AM, Aviationdave said: that makes for a raw evening in the panhandle. Yeah, didn't realize wind chill factor could be a consideration with a tropical system coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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