stormtracker Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 6:18 PM, Symblized said: Cape May-ACY isn't exactly "caving" to the GFS (which, remember, had been coming closer to the Euro for days). NYC might have been. True...jumped the gun a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This is actually worse wind wise for Northen Va, DC, MD area. A direct hit would mean less wind with this type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 hr 114 drifts east over the upper ches. bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Does this then point to the next Euro run as a key run to see if this is a trend or a hiccup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 6:18 PM, stormtracker said: That's still a shellacking for down here Coming from the north creates other issues too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Just about have a consensus at least in NJ... GGEM and NOGAPS were in C to N NJ... EURO in S NJ... GFS near NYC... so bascially NJ is ground zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 still buries wva. 18"-24" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 6:20 PM, Midlo Snow Maker said: hr 114 drifts east over the upper ches. bay Wow. So, basically, at 90 we've already gotten 2" of rain, and then it comes and sits on us for a full day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Midlo...what's the central pressure look like as it approaches and makes landfall? Also precip totals if you have it. TIA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Looks like somewhere around 940 mb at 90 hrs almost at landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 6:22 PM, Midlo Snow Maker said: still buries wva. 18"-24" so far Rain..how much rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 3" ric 4" dc LF around 952ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I had about 4" of rain from Irene I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 brunt of it is now pushed to midday mon. into midday tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 6:22 PM, yoda said: Just about have a consensus at least in NJ... GGEM and NOGAPS were in C to N NJ... EURO in S NJ... GFS near NYC... so bascially NJ is ground zero GFS still goes much further E before hooking W into NYC so I'm not sure it is part of the consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I just don't buy a hard left hook. Models overestimating the block?E EDIT: Or fubaring the timing of the phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 6:22 PM, Midlo Snow Maker said: still buries wva. 18"-24" so far 75 Miles from my office to Lewisburg, WV-- It's 12+ there. LYH is BARELY below at h85 for about .75 liquid. My office in Cloverdale(Near Roanoke) is about .65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 6:22 PM, Midlo Snow Maker said: still buries wva. 18"-24" so far Not just W.Va.... this would bury eastern Ky, western Va., northeast Tenn and western N.C., aside from western Pa. That would make for some crazy 48 hour strong northwest flow with heavy snow bands all the way down into western N.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 6:06 PM, WxUSAF said: Euro caves to the GFS after 11 runs of great continuity? shocking. well, not really. the euro has its biases like every other model. people need to stop acting like it's a sentient being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 As far as who caved and who didn't, I'd say on this run...the euro caved. It went way east initially and very well might be suffering from the same issues as to why it brought it near WAL. Still a lot of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro ensembles will be interesting, since I'd say they've had the best continuity of all with a NJ landfall for a few days now. But, we're inside that 4 day point where the Op's should be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I can't recall a storm looping like that. Very strange. Clearly the blocking issues are causing havoc with the various models. Fascinating in its own way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm not sure I buy the Euro's precipitation presentation after landfall. That is a amazing collapse by 00z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 12z GEFS plumes for Baltimore still have a range of 1-8" on precip! No real noticeable cluster within that range either, almost evenly distributed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Friday afternoon 12z ECMWF: Tuesday morning, sub-940mb, Central NJ 12z ECMWF ensemble mean: Northern NJ 12z GFS: Tuesday morning, 950mb, RI/CT border 12z GFS ensemble mean: Late morning Tuesday, Central-Northern NJ 12z HWRF: Overnight Mon/Tue, sub-930, very southern NJ 12z GFDL: Monday evening, 940mb, Ocean City 12z canadian: Overnight Mon/Tue, northern NJ 12z NOGAPS: Overnight Mon/Tue, central NJ 12 UKMET: Southern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Mean looks to be in the realm of Atlantic City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What are those models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 7:39 PM, SabreAce33 said: Mean looks to be in the realm of Atlantic City. Given that model spread I would agree that central to southern NJ looks to be a good spot for the mean with an emphasis on southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 7:39 PM, SabreAce33 said: Mean looks to be in the realm of Atlantic City. A lot of folks in the NE forum are predicting a western LI landfall, while it's early, i'm not sure there is much support for that. CM to Sandy Hook looks to be the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 you should at least factor in that a lot of those models are garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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