yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Guess we are making our own cold air at 132 with the 0c line? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06138.gif -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 My goodness. GFS really went the way of the euro this run. Different landfall of course but what a nutty evolution. Interesting seeing the 0c 850 line off OBX in Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I almost never post model images but this snip just seems worthy. Sub 950 with howling winds and rain. I'm still wrapping my head around the reality that this could be reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Wrap around snow? Have to check the lower level soundings when they come out but probably 40/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Ok, I am sure LWX would love to have more feedback on their Facebook post. Anyone game? https://www.facebook...d_comment_reply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 On 10/25/2012 at 10:34 PM, MCS said: Ok, I am sure LWX would love to have more feedback on their Facebook post. Anyone game? https://www.facebook...d_comment_reply Sure seems they have a more reserved outlook on the storm than the models suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18z GEFS -http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS120.gif Very similar to the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Really almost shocking consensus between the 12z Euro, 18z GFS, 18z GEFS and some of the other models in the grabbag (e.g., NOGAPS, GFDL). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Interesting, seems the gfs enkf ensemble a bit further south but these runs are delayed so this is the 6z so I wonder what the 12z and 18z have to offer..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Lol, GFDL says Good-bye Virginia. Landfall near Williamsburg then moves inland. Hasn't this come south every time before the Euro or? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 woo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It's kind of scary to watch this all unfold as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 1:04 AM, Ian said: woo That would raise really big coastal flooding problems in the chesapeake bay ....maybe isabelle like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 1:07 AM, usedtobe said: That would raise really big coastal flooding problems in the chesapeake bay ....maybe isabelle like. Yeah with the landfall south of the DC region, anyone along the bay, Havre De Grace, Md, Fells Point in Baltimore, Annapolis, places upstream on the Potomac would be be seeing some much devastating flooding from that scenario. good job on the radio show too Wes, enjoyed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COBRIEN85 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 1:07 AM, usedtobe said: That would raise really big coastal flooding problems in the chesapeake bay ....maybe isabelle like. Having lived in Virginia all my life, I would have to say that this ensemble and the picture above, curls my nose hairs. That would be insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 1:04 AM, Ian said: woo we hardly knew you ocean city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 crazy run. it deepens pretty fast heading in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 1:07 AM, usedtobe said: That would raise really big coastal flooding problems in the chesapeake bay ....maybe isabelle like. I'm really hoping the south trend has stopped, as having this thing push a wall of water up the Chesapeake is really not a good idea. Amazing how stout the Euro has been so far with Sandy. I'm a Euro hugger this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I wonder what sort of surge map would correlate to that type of landfall. I would think cat 2 or so, this storm is going to be huge and have such a long fetch and the angle it comes in via 18z gfdl is worst case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Too bad the GFDL is usually wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 1:11 AM, Ian said: crazy run. it deepens pretty fast heading in. thats just sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 1:08 AM, Aviationdave said: Yeah with the landfall south of the DC region, anyone along the bay, Havre De Grace, Md, Fells Point in Baltimore, Annapolis, places upstream on the Potomac would be be seeing some much devastating flooding from that scenario. good job on the radio show too Wes, enjoyed it Isabel all over again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 1:08 AM, Aviationdave said: Yeah with the landfall south of the DC region, anyone along the bay, Havre De Grace, Md, Fells Point in Baltimore, Annapolis, places upstream on the Potomac would be be seeing some much devastating flooding from that scenario. good job on the radio show too Wes, enjoyed it Some of those areas....fells and annapolis....have it bad enough with weaker storms. This, as you mentioned, really would be devastating. Bowleys Quarters is another area that would be wrecked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 1:14 AM, Ian said: Too bad the GFDL is usually wrong. That's the good news. I'd still lean towards farther n like the euro and am not sure which solution I'd prefer. I think we might see stronger winds with the euro track but really don't know. I'd love to give Rev Kev the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Models fairly consistent (and in such an anomalous setup fairly right) in deepening this up until landfall. Incredibly rare for the EC north of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Tropical Storm warnings up for GA/SC coast and Tropical Storm watch for SE NC coast now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 1:18 AM, usedtobe said: That's the good news. I'd still lean towards farther n like the euro and am not sure which solution I'd prefer. I think we might see stronger winds with the euro track but really don't know. I'd love to give Rev Kev the storm. It seems to bomb everything out. Not sure how it would work with a transitioning storm anyway as I think it's a tropical model? Even the GFS when it was far off with the center had a pretty hefty 850 wind max in that backside zone. If it's truly going to be historic I want in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 1:18 AM, usedtobe said: That's the good news. I'd still lean towards farther n like the euro and am not sure which solution I'd prefer. I think we might see stronger winds with the euro track but really don't know. I'd love to give Rev Kev the storm. What is making you lean towards the Euro Wes, if you don't mind me asking? Just because it's the Euro or is there something to the setup you like better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 1:20 AM, Ian said: It seems to bomb everything out. Not sure how it would work with a transitioning storm anyway as I think it's a tropical model? Even the GFS when it was far off with the center had a pretty hefty 850 wind max in that backside zone. If it's truly going to be historic I want in. It sure seems like that is beginning to be the "consensus" that is building. I'm pretty prepared for this to rival or exceed Isabel in terms of wind here. I'm guessing that early next week the forum will be dead except for those with generators and internet still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 1:21 AM, Quasievil said: What is making you lean towards the Euro Wes, if you don't mind me asking? Just because it's the Euro or is there something to the setup you like better? I'm just saying over the gfdl and the reason is pretty much what ian noted. I don't know how the model works with transitioning storms and don't know as it is a tropical model but also one based on physics so I'm not sure how much that matters. II'm used to dealing with the euro and gfs...no other reason except that most of the other operational models and ens runs are north of it and it's ens members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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