moneypitmike Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 6Z/22 GFS appears to be a big whiff. Following the op trend (GFS). Euro ensemble mean is offshore but apparently alot of spread. What I'm more worried about is the delay in the colder pattern and the actual mitigation of it down the road. Like last October, is it worth losing winter over something like this? Not to me. Frame this. Oh, so very true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yeah time zone favorability means alot. I'm in AZ this week and will get everything 3 hours earlier so normal bed times. I also wasn't losing sleep last night for a threat beyond d7.. Yeah, I'm sure we will end up getting showers and a nice breeze.Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Will be interesting to see how Ryan downplays this today 12z Euro. Full phase, watch out NE! 144 168 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Will be interesting to see how Ryan downplays this today Very easily. Like this: 12z Euro. Full phase, watch out NE! 144 12zeuro500mbHGHTNA144.gif 168 12zeuro500mbHGHTNA168.gif 192 12zeuro500mbHGHTNA192.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 6Z/22 GFS appears to be a big whiff. Following the op trend (GFS). Euro ensemble mean is offshore but apparently alot of spread. What I'm more worried about is the delay in the colder pattern and the actual mitigation of it down the road. Like last October, is it worth losing winter over something like this? Not to me. Hit the nail on the head...i dont want a mild down cool shot..followed by the one eye pig....lets hope this mess misses east and we get cold...we know how last october extremely odd storm work out for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Wow at the Euro and it's ensembles..We really need to start making preparations now It's ensembles? But for a d9 mean...impressive nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Upton likes the gfs which makes sense given the euros lack of support from its own ensembles FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WEIGHED FORECAST MORE TOWARDS GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE HAVING ISSUES WITH INTERACTIONS BETWEEN A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE NATURE OF THE INTERACTION AND THAT IT IS A MINORITY SOLUTION...HAVE DISCOUNTED BOTH THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 So... How bout the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 So... How bout the euro? upton says ignore it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro op was interesting. The ensembles almost had a GFS op look to it. Either part of the system, or a wave redeveloping. About what I would expect from ensembles so far out still, but nice to see them not giving up at least. That's all you can say. Still very far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I don't think you should ignore one of the more high skilled data sets, but I would not take it verbatim being over 180-hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 While the Euro obviously creates an epic solution...the 00z run is faster with the midwest trough and a bit more broad. Just something to keep an eye on as we go forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I don't think you should ignore one of the more high skilled data sets, but I would not take it verbatim being over 180-hrs out. Agree...I think the chances of precipitation somewhere on the east coast in 7 days is getting higher. Some sort of rainfall looks to be gaining strength, but to think that locks in a major damaging event like a poster or two is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The evolution of the central Atlantic cut-off is also key. If it digs far enough south...it weakens the ridging to the northeast of the storm, allowing an escape route to the northeast, which is depicted on the GFS and Euro ensemble mean. Something interesting that is tangentially related is that Bob Hart presentation about the Long Island Express that was posted a few weeks back with respect to extratropical evolution and track. Even our modern models ensemble solution waffled between an out to sea solution, a more inland solution and what eventually verified within 5 days. There is a very complex interaction between fully tropical vs. cold occlusion vs. warm occlusion/seclusion that can throw the models for a loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Until this this actually forms a system down in the Atlantic, all this is is model watching. Lay off the damage posts and weenie-casting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Until this this actually forms a system down in the Atlantic, all this is is model watching. Lay off the damage posts and weenie-casting. Wouldn't that be hilarious if nothing formed in the tropics? lol. That would be surprising given depth of the ensemble mean depictions of that low off the SE US Coast at day 4-5. It looks like a subtropical evolution to me, so not sure it would be a hurricane, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Speaking of model watching, I was sort of alerted to this by Adam in the 99L thread, and went and read both, NWS OKX and HPC are on different pages concerning preferred models, HPC generally liking the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Both the GFDL and HWRF develop 99L into Sandy but move it northeast out of the Caribbean toward Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Both the GFDL and HWRF develop 99L into Sandy but move it northeast out of the Caribbean toward Bermuda. They're both based off the GFS and have a right bias, so this isn't surprising at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Considering that the Euro has been known to overdo the ridging (in this case, referring to the blocking ridge to the east of future Sandy), I'd be suspicious of its extreme solution right now. Something in between the GFS/Euro solutions seems most likely right now, though of course no solution is out of the realm of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Considering that the Euro has been known to overdo the ridging, I'd be suspicious of its extreme solution right now. Something in between the GFS/Euro solutions seems most likely right now, though of course no solution is out of the realm of possibility. Yeah I would have to go with something to the east of us right now. Fair starting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 What does 40/70 Benchmark expect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yeah I would have to go with something to the east of us right now. Fair starting point. Yep, same here. The Maritimes appear more likely to get hit attm with the expected -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yep, same here. The Maritimes appear more likely to get hit attm with the expected -NAO That's probably a good guess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Couple of thoughts? The tropical system to me is the big if...what if it doesnt develop or gets stuck over Cuba/Hispanola and is a disorganized mess? Also, the Canadian has it coming inland over NC/VA--pretty far south of here--even Euro is more Del-marva hit so not sure what the SNE impact would be other than some rain and wind? maybe the mets can chime in on that scenario... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Couple of thoughts? The tropical system to me is the big if...what if it doesnt develop or gets stuck over Cuba/Hispanola and is a disorganized mess? Also, the Canadian has it coming inland over NC/VA--pretty far south of here--even Euro is more Del-marva hit so not sure what the SNE impact would be other than some rain and wind? maybe the mets can chime in on that scenario... There isn't much uncertainty in the tropical portion of the forecast. It seems highly likely that we'll have a low end hurricane or a strong tropical storm sitting over the Bahamas Friday morning. And then... who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Couple of thoughts? The tropical system to me is the big if...what if it doesnt develop or gets stuck over Cuba/Hispanola and is a disorganized mess? Also, the Canadian has it coming inland over NC/VA--pretty far south of here--even Euro is more Del-marva hit so not sure what the SNE impact would be other than some rain and wind? maybe the mets can chime in on that scenario... The Euro would still bring high winds to the coast, but strongest winds would be down in NJ and closer to NYC. Rain would be an issue on thewest side of the system where strong convergence and frontogenesis acts to squeeze all the moisture out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 For all the Toronto Blizzard's out there, Hazel was actually the worst natural disaster in Canadian history...killed 81 people in epic flooding in Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The Euro would still bring high winds to the coast, but strongest winds would be down in NJ and closer to NYC. Rain would be an issue on thewest side of the system where strong convergence and frontogenesis acts to squeeze all the moisture out. I thought this latest Euro run actually had a bit less baroclinic interaction than 12z yesterday. It maintained it's tropical characteristics longer and the midwest trough wasn't as sharp or negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 There isn't much uncertainty in the tropical portion of the forecast. It seems highly likely that we'll have a low end hurricane or a strong tropical storm sitting over the Bahamas Friday morning. And then... who knows? once again I disagree with this, at this point its far too early to even be calling for a TS to form let along a strong one or a cane by friday. I favor something subtropical over anything right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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