SBUWX23 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Hard to tell on those black and white maps but the 00z GGEM is still a big storm off the east coast at 144 hr. Someone correct me if I am wrong. I cannot stand those black and white maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Hard to tell on those black and white maps but the 00z GGEM is still a big storm off the east coast at 144 hr. Someone correct me if I am wrong. I cannot stand those black and white maps. You can get 12 hour increments in color here: http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&hh=144&comp=1&runb=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=204&fixhh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Hard to tell on those black and white maps but the 00z GGEM is still a big storm off the east coast at 144 hr. Someone correct me if I am wrong. I cannot stand those black and white maps. GGEM a 156 has 960 L off ACY... then at 168 its in SW Quebec... magic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I was gonna comment on that too. The overall pattern seemed a little more favorable than the op fwiw. Just another example of how complicated things are....but aren't they always for fun events? LOL. Yes they are! LOL The models always have issues with multi-low scenarios esp. with deep systems over the GL and with "secondary" type systems over/along the EC. If you look at anomalies and they're movement over the long range there will be some sort of a beast on the East Coast. After looking at the 00z runs its interesting how they are more seaward and less intense. I would not be surprised if by Tuesday and Wednesday they went back to a more dynamic and coastwise/inland solution. Add into the mix the fact that the models tend to suck in both a pattern change and/or along with a tropical system interacting into the pattern with non-tropical features this event could be one for the books - either way. One other thing to mention is the far superior tropical vortex assimilation on the Euro versus the GFS. No 's, I am not saying the euro will be right, all I am saying is we dont really know if the GFS is getting the tropical wave right at its assimilation so it could be throwing off the track later on. This does not mean a big bomb will happen because it may not see the vortex right yet, just that there is another problem to the equation this far out. It won't be tropical by the time it reaches the latitude of ILM, NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Thanks Hoosier. That answered my question real quick too. You can get 12 hour increments in color here: http://meteocentre.c...hh2=204&fixhh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yes i know it wont be then, I was referring to the assimilation of the wave now. It won't be tropical by the time it reaches the latitude of ILM, NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The biggest factor atleast to me, is the trough. The 12z euro and the canadian runs really dig that trough into the SE. And then cut it off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 One thing i have noticed is how much shear this disturbance will have to interact with as it moves north. SST's are decreasing also, as we are now in mid-October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro is going to go boom... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro is going to go boom... WOW. That's a crazy run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I posted this in the other forum too but the euro has one of the best phases you will ever see on a model. Good night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Further east, but much stronger than 12z, and it's being pulled west at 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Further east, but much stronger than 12z, and it's being pulled west at 192. Yep and the trough really digs deep to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Further east, but much stronger than 12z, and it's being pulled west at 192. It makes a severe west hook after that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The surface low is near 950mb off the NJ Coast at 12z Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The surface low is near 950mb off the NJ Coast at 12z Tuesday Yeah that run is nothing short of insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Is that five contours closed on the 5h u/a ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 One thing i have noticed is how much shear this disturbance will have to interact with as it moves north. SST's are decreasing also, as we are now in mid-October. None of that would really matter in the modeling scenarios...it's a phaser. The intensification as it travels north is due to nontropical forces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 This is more like Oct 2nd than 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 EC ens mean appears to go near or just outside of the BM before heading over Eastport, ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I am still waiting Jerrys in person account of Hazel, that storm is intriguing. On the east side of it......ridiculous winds......railroad wires housed on poles sawed in half blowing down the street as were trees. Not much rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I just read this entire wonderful thread and I'm kind of sad that most of you went to bed before the 00Z Euro came out. So, good morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I just read this entire wonderful thread and I'm kind of sad that most of you went to bed before the 00Z Euro came out. So, good morning! You won't catch me missing sleep for a storm not within 72-96 hrs...especially during daylight savings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 You won't catch me missing sleep for a storm not within 72-96 hrs...especially during daylight savings.. I'm in Asia this week so I can keep tabs on it for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 EC ens mean appears to go near or just outside of the BM before heading over Eastport, ME. A Phil special. Still too far out, but entertaining to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 . I'm in Asia this week so I can keep tabs on it for you. Yeah time zone favorability means alot. I'm in AZ this week and will get everything 3 hours earlier so normal bed times. I also wasn't losing sleep last night for a threat beyond d7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 6Z/22 GFS appears to be a big whiff. Following the op trend (GFS). Euro ensemble mean is offshore but apparently alot of spread. What I'm more worried about is the delay in the colder pattern and the actual mitigation of it down the road. Like last October, is it worth losing winter over something like this? Not to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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