CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yeah the 00z is pretty far east. Yup. I don't really buy DT's argument that there's no room for escape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I can see why, it bombs that N ATL upper low and moves it quickly southeast (much, much faster than 12z), creating a nice weakness for the TC to move right towards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Im a bit baffled how close "Sandy" and the Atlantic low are on the 00z run. Is this even physically possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Ridging to the northeast of potential Sandy is much weaker with the 0z and 18z GFS than the 12z and 6z GFS, which is also related to the difference with how the low SE of Newfoundland is handled, as the 0z/18z runs have it completely separated from the main flow, unlike the 2 earlier runs. Just like any other part of the forecast this can still change but it also proves that it's not a lock that Sandy will be blocked from staying offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Eh haheh .. he makes a good point. The bigger question is whether the runs are right in developing he tropical entity. Yes the beta drift effect would favor more ridging to the northeast of the cyclone than the GFS is showing, there's nothing to knock that ridge down hence the 50/50 low should be the one that moves east, not Sandy. 12z GGEM track is possible though, the storm goes just far enough east to avoid a direct hit, but not SE of Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yup. I don't really buy DT's argument that there's no room for escape. That anafrontal look to the moisture is what I was referring to about some of its moisture getting caught up in an indirect way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 That anafrontal look to the moisture is what I was referring to about some of its moisture getting caught up in an indirect way. Yup was just looking at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The 00z GFS may not even have a big storm past 192 like the 18z GFS did even with Sandy going east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 If you compare the 12z run to the 00z run you can see the ridge immediately east of Sandy (not north) is quite a bit weaker. That weakness allows the storm to drift east and keeps it too far east to phase with the developing NEUS trough. I also think the models are going to struggle with fujiwhara interaction between the big ocean low off Newfoundland and the expanding wind field associated with Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I can see why, it bombs that N ATL upper low and moves it quickly southeast (much, much faster than 12z), creating a nice weakness for the TC to move right towards. It was further east to begin with. I didn't notice that low causing an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The 00z GFS may not even have a big storm past 192 like the 18z GFS did even with Sandy going east. Doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 It was further east to begin with. I didn't notice that low causing an issue. If you look at the 12z compared to the 00z at the same time, you'll see it, with it creating a cozy weakness for Sandy. Essentially what NYCSuburbs highlighted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 If you compare the 12z run to the 00z run you can see the ridge immediately east of Sandy (not north) is quite a bit weaker. That weakness allows the storm to drift east and keeps it too far east to phase with the developing NEUS trough. I also think the models are going to struggle with fujiwhara interaction between the big ocean low off Newfoundland and the expanding wind field associated with Sandy. Yeah the reaches of the NATL low sort of weaken that ridge and it drifts east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 If you look at the 12z compared to the 00z at the same time, you'll see it. Essentially what NYCSuburbs highlighted. Well the low was further SW and broader allowing it to beat the ridge down a bit. Heights were lower all to the ne of Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yeah the reaches of the NATL low sort of weaken that ridge and it drifts east. Yeah the big Newfoundland low is farther west now and that weakens the ridge a bit opening up the escape hatch. The 12z run was the near perfect location for the pseudo 50/50 low that was east enough to keep the omega block/ridge in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Even at 72 hours or so it was evident that there were huge changes from the 12z run in the North Atlantic with that upper level low. A good example as to why its not usually a good idea to get worked up over any solution at 180+ hours out -- the changes from run to run can be huge because even the main players in the pattern can be jumping around on the the models at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yeah the big Newfoundland low is farther west now and that weakens the ridge a bit opening up the escape hatch. The 12z run was the near perfect location for the pseudo 50/50 low that was east enough to keep the omega block/ridge in place. It's funny though, because the trough in the Plains was sharper...more amplified with that and the ridge just off the west coast. So one part looked better, the other obviously worse. To the accuweather weenies, this is why it always isn't a good idea to run with the most anomalous solutions. While it can happen, you need a synergistic appeal to the happen where all the moving parts need to work in harmony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 00z UKMET has the TC just west of Jamaica at 72h. Rest of the run not out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 It's funny though, because the trough in the Plains was sharper...more amplified with that and the ridge just off the west coast. So one part looked better, the other obviously worse. To the accuweather weenies, this is why it always isn't a good idea to run with the most anomalous solutions. While it can happen, you need a synergistic appeal to the happen where all the moving parts need to work in harmony. Yeah you need to thread the needle to get the most extreme/anomalous solution to occur in any given geographc area lol. More often than not the countless different and moving pieces don't come together perfectly and you're left with a flop. While the pattern is interesting that's about all you could reasonably say with this morning's 12z runs. If it was a 96 or 120 hour forecast... that would be one thing... but 180+ hours you're really in weenie land out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The set up over the eastern US and Atlantic certainly creates a classic environment for high sensitivity to initial conditions with this storm, and a bifurcation of forecast solutions. In general, this results in all or nothing. Obviously not quite that severe in reality, but we're certainly not looking at a nice Gaussian distribution of solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yeah you need to thread the needle to get the most extreme/anomalous solution to occur in any given geographc area lol. More often than not the countless different and moving pieces don't come together perfectly and you're left with a flop. While the pattern is interesting that's about all you could reasonably say with this morning's 12z runs. If it was a 96 or 120 hour forecast... that would be one thing... but 180+ hours you're really in weenie land out there. < 72 hour forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 < 72 hour forecast Yes, probably true, but a 96 hour forecast of something like the 12z Euro/GFS would certainly be very concerning. A 180 hour forecast of it is not particularly concerning lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Anyone remember January 2-4 this year? There was plenty of hype after only a few hour 192-240 ECM runs that showed a developing blizzard, and nothing came out of it at the end. There was also a similar case in February 2011 when the GFS had a very strong storm developing 192 hours out and the only thing that came out of it was a light Mid Atlantic snow event. This is a reminder of why no one should be taking hour 180+ solutions seriously. As the latest model runs are suggesting, especially with the different handling of the Atlantic low and the ridging NE of Sandy, there's so much that can go wrong with these long range extreme scenarios; not to say it is impossible, but it could just as easily fail to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Hr 108..Cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 GEFS have that wave along the trough developing as a possibility we talked about earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 GEM-Global says hold on... (Don't shoot the messenger!!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 You can also see some other differences to the op run and as you get towards 168 h there is considerable spread in the ensembles to get to the mean. I do notice a more amplified trough and maybe stronger blocking in the Atlantic however. All this is saying is dont buy into any one solution yet. GEFS have that wave along the trough developing as a possibility we talked about earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 You can also see some other differences to the op run and as you get towards 168 h there is considerable spread in the ensembles to get to the mean. I do notice a more amplified trough and maybe stronger blocking in the Atlantic however. All this is saying is dont buy into any one solution yet. I was gonna comment on that too. The overall pattern seemed a little more favorable than the op fwiw. Just another example of how complicated things are....but aren't they always for fun events? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 One other thing to mention is the far superior tropical vortex assimilation on the Euro versus the GFS. No 's, I am not saying the euro will be right, all I am saying is we dont really know if the GFS is getting the tropical wave right at its assimilation so it could be throwing off the track later on. This does not mean a big bomb will happen because it may not see the vortex right yet, just that there is another problem to the equation this far out. I was gonna comment on that too. The overall pattern seemed a little more favorable than the op fwiw. Just another example of how complicated things are....but aren't they always for fun events? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 we'll be lucky to get a two-day cool shot from all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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