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Who Needs Hazel When You Have Sandy


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Wow this thread is growing into an untamed beast. Some great informative and realistic posts from the mets but the hypsters need to chill. I find it ironic that on my way home from Boston this evening I saw one of those Oscar Meyers weenie mobiles at the Concord rotary. Then I get home to read this thread with 7+ pages of craziness with some sane meteorology scattered in between. . lol

(btw for the record I put Tips post in my sig days before all this madness started)

Carry on.

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earlier a met posted that it would be like threading the needle to get a phase out of the upcoming scenario, i was wondering if this was agreed on and what this was based on.

i wasn't sure how much forecast teleconnectors can be taken into account this far out but it seems like their is a consensus their will be significant blocking (-NAO) and wondered how this might favor any type of evolutions (make some modeled possibilities more likely) , wether just general in what the teleconnectors may favor (evolution/track/ strength wise) this far out or if they really don't factor in much.

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It is not a fact though. It does not benefit from correction based off the 12z or 00z raobs, but current data from mesonets and radar are used for input into initial conditions.

Edit: Forgot to mention satellite data as well, like QuikSCAT.

I don't have it on my phone, but remember a NWS site that shows in graph for how much data goes in each run. It's handy for hurricane hunter flights.

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earlier a met posted that it would be like threading the needle to get a phase out of the upcoming scenario, i was wondering if this was agreed on and what this was based on.

i wasn't sure how much forecast teleconnectors can be taken into account this far out but it seems like their is a consensus their will be significant blocking (-NAO) and wondered how this might favor any type of evolutions (make some modeled possibilities more likely) , wether just general in what the teleconnectors may favor (evolution/track/ strength wise) this far out or if there is not teleconnectors can factor in what to "look" for.

I think the presence of the monster block makes this interesting. Without it the thing would be a fish storm by a wide margin.

The question will be where the ridging sets up, how the storm develops in the next 5 days, and eventual interaction with upstream shortwaves.

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earlier a met posted that it would be like threading the needle to get a phase out of the upcoming scenario, i was wondering if this was agreed on and what this was based on.

i wasn't sure how much forecast teleconnectors can be taken into account this far out but it seems like their is a consensus their will be significant blocking (-NAO) and wondered how this might favor any type of evolutions (make some modeled possibilities more likely) , wether just general in what the teleconnectors may favor (evolution/track/ strength wise) this far out or if they really don't factor in much.

It's not really to get a phase per se, it's to get THE phase that the 12z suite had. That would take the needle threading.

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I think the presence of the monster block makes this interesting. Without it the thing would be a fish storm by a wide margin.

The question will be where the ridging sets up, how the storm develops in the next 5 days, and eventual interaction with upstream shortwaves.

thank you ryan and oceanst (for clarifying)

if you could help me with one more thing, anything in particular to "look for" regarding how the ridging sets up, the storm's development this week, and eventual shortwave interaction if one was wanting to see a rising chance of higher elevation snows in the appalachians or mtns of NW new england become more of a plausible scenario several days from now, even if it is not likely at this point.

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Hes does lay out the details fairly well though...

Yes he does... I actually made it through most of it.

He's is right that the downstream blocking is very anomalous. The issue I have is that there are a number of things that can go wrong to avoid a Hazel-esque hit lol.

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earlier a met posted that it would be like threading the needle to get a phase out of the upcoming scenario, i was wondering if this was agreed on and what this was based on.

i wasn't sure how much forecast teleconnectors can be taken into account this far out but it seems like their is a consensus their will be significant blocking (-NAO) and wondered how this might favor any type of evolutions (make some modeled possibilities more likely) , wether just general in what the teleconnectors may favor (evolution/track/ strength wise) this far out or if they really don't factor in much.

Just FYI, the use of teleconnectors is for a given forecaster to slope probabilities one way or the other.

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Definitely. This is always the case when we talk about something over 5 days out.

Yes he does... I actually made it through most of it.

He's is right that the downstream blocking is very anomalous. The issue I have is that there are a number of things that can go wrong to avoid a Hazel-esque hit lol.

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Yes he does... I actually made it through most of it.

He's is right that the downstream blocking is very anomalous. The issue I have is that there are a number of things that can go wrong to avoid a Hazel-esque hit lol.

I am still waiting Jerrys in person account of Hazel, that storm is intriguing.

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He thinks the east atlantic low will prevent the storm from going out to sea.

I think his theory violates rule #1 of east coast Meteorology. There is always room for the storm to escape northeast!!!

Eh haheh .. he makes a good point.

The bigger question is whether the runs are right in developing he tropical entity.

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GFS to Hour 30, and I am wondering what the Eastern/American record for lead time to an event for storm mode. 99L/Perfect Storm Part II may set the record. It would be a great payoff to an uneventful (except for Louisiana) US tropical season. I'll mostly lurk and enjoy the wisdom of the SNE red tags.

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It will be interesting to see how quickly the trough/cold front work through the country...if the eastward movement is slower in speed this would allow for the system in the Atlantic more room to work further west towards the east coast resulting in a better opportunity for the system to have more of an interaction with the trough...or at least an even better shot for moisture from the system to be drawn in. If the movement of the front/trough is faster in nature that would vastly decrease the chances for the Atlantic system to move closer to the coast. Of course, however, not only will the timing/speed of the front/trough be of importance but the speed of the Atlantic system as well.

On the GFS it does appear that once the trough/front get to the mid-section of the country it's eastward progression does slow a bit as the front slightly weakens and the trough continues to dig further south...we see models too many times though become way too aggressive with digging troughs too deep so just another thing to keep an eye on.

Anyways, at some point we could see a period for some decent rainfall potential as there could be lots of moisture advecting northward from the Gulf along the front.

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