dryslot Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The ensembles this far out hold more importance at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The 18 Z GFS evolution certainly is interesting, just wish it was Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Wow this thread is growing into an untamed beast. Some great informative and realistic posts from the mets but the hypsters need to chill. I find it ironic that on my way home from Boston this evening I saw one of those Oscar Meyers weenie mobiles at the Concord rotary. Then I get home to read this thread with 7+ pages of craziness with some sane meteorology scattered in between. . lol (btw for the record I put Tips post in my sig days before all this madness started) Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The ensembles this far out hold more importance at this point This would be your 69 dream scenario again two months from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 This would be your 69 dream scenario again two months from now. Yeah, Its to early on steve, But i hope we end up track plenty of coastal's this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 earlier a met posted that it would be like threading the needle to get a phase out of the upcoming scenario, i was wondering if this was agreed on and what this was based on. i wasn't sure how much forecast teleconnectors can be taken into account this far out but it seems like their is a consensus their will be significant blocking (-NAO) and wondered how this might favor any type of evolutions (make some modeled possibilities more likely) , wether just general in what the teleconnectors may favor (evolution/track/ strength wise) this far out or if they really don't factor in much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 It is not a fact though. It does not benefit from correction based off the 12z or 00z raobs, but current data from mesonets and radar are used for input into initial conditions. Edit: Forgot to mention satellite data as well, like QuikSCAT. I don't have it on my phone, but remember a NWS site that shows in graph for how much data goes in each run. It's handy for hurricane hunter flights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 earlier a met posted that it would be like threading the needle to get a phase out of the upcoming scenario, i was wondering if this was agreed on and what this was based on. i wasn't sure how much forecast teleconnectors can be taken into account this far out but it seems like their is a consensus their will be significant blocking (-NAO) and wondered how this might favor any type of evolutions (make some modeled possibilities more likely) , wether just general in what the teleconnectors may favor (evolution/track/ strength wise) this far out or if there is not teleconnectors can factor in what to "look" for. I think the presence of the monster block makes this interesting. Without it the thing would be a fish storm by a wide margin. The question will be where the ridging sets up, how the storm develops in the next 5 days, and eventual interaction with upstream shortwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 earlier a met posted that it would be like threading the needle to get a phase out of the upcoming scenario, i was wondering if this was agreed on and what this was based on. i wasn't sure how much forecast teleconnectors can be taken into account this far out but it seems like their is a consensus their will be significant blocking (-NAO) and wondered how this might favor any type of evolutions (make some modeled possibilities more likely) , wether just general in what the teleconnectors may favor (evolution/track/ strength wise) this far out or if they really don't factor in much. It's not really to get a phase per se, it's to get THE phase that the 12z suite had. That would take the needle threading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 It's not really to get a phase per se, it's to get THE phase that the 12z suite had. That would take the needle threading. Don't be such a pessimist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 It's not really to get a phase per se, it's to get THE phase that the 12z suite had. That would take the needle threading. Yeah that's the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Hopefully Ekster chimes in Lol. Autocorrected to Sister... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I think the presence of the monster block makes this interesting. Without it the thing would be a fish storm by a wide margin. The question will be where the ridging sets up, how the storm develops in the next 5 days, and eventual interaction with upstream shortwaves. thank you ryan and oceanst (for clarifying) if you could help me with one more thing, anything in particular to "look for" regarding how the ridging sets up, the storm's development this week, and eventual shortwave interaction if one was wanting to see a rising chance of higher elevation snows in the appalachians or mtns of NW new england become more of a plausible scenario several days from now, even if it is not likely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Somebody has to keep you in check. Scott told all his aviation clients to ground all flights by the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Scott told all his aviation clients to ground all flights by the end of next week. The area from the Bahamas to Sable Island is a no fly zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 DT has a podcast out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 He does lay out the details fairly well though... DT has a podcast out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Hes does lay out the details fairly well though... Yes he does... I actually made it through most of it. He's is right that the downstream blocking is very anomalous. The issue I have is that there are a number of things that can go wrong to avoid a Hazel-esque hit lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 earlier a met posted that it would be like threading the needle to get a phase out of the upcoming scenario, i was wondering if this was agreed on and what this was based on. i wasn't sure how much forecast teleconnectors can be taken into account this far out but it seems like their is a consensus their will be significant blocking (-NAO) and wondered how this might favor any type of evolutions (make some modeled possibilities more likely) , wether just general in what the teleconnectors may favor (evolution/track/ strength wise) this far out or if they really don't factor in much. Just FYI, the use of teleconnectors is for a given forecaster to slope probabilities one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Definitely. This is always the case when we talk about something over 5 days out. Yes he does... I actually made it through most of it. He's is right that the downstream blocking is very anomalous. The issue I have is that there are a number of things that can go wrong to avoid a Hazel-esque hit lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 DT has a podcast out lol He thinks the east atlantic low will prevent the storm from going out to sea. I think his theory violates rule #1 of east coast Meteorology. There is always room for the storm to escape northeast!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yes he does... I actually made it through most of it. He's is right that the downstream blocking is very anomalous. The issue I have is that there are a number of things that can go wrong to avoid a Hazel-esque hit lol. I am still waiting Jerrys in person account of Hazel, that storm is intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 00z GFS is running for all you model followers out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 He thinks the east atlantic low will prevent the storm from going out to sea. I think his theory violates rule #1 of east coast Meteorology. There is always room for the storm to escape northeast!!! Eh haheh .. he makes a good point. The bigger question is whether the runs are right in developing he tropical entity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Maue tweeted a pretty useful graphic -- showing the 20-perturbed GFS ensemble members .. each of which show the tropical system fairly well developed by Day 6. As solid as you can get at that range. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/A5xbri0CIAIXszs.png:large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 GFS to Hour 30, and I am wondering what the Eastern/American record for lead time to an event for storm mode. 99L/Perfect Storm Part II may set the record. It would be a great payoff to an uneventful (except for Louisiana) US tropical season. I'll mostly lurk and enjoy the wisdom of the SNE red tags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Maue tweeted a pretty useful graphic -- showing the 20-perturbed GFS ensemble members .. each of which show the tropical system fairly well developed by Day 6. As solid as you can get at that range. https://pbs.twimg.co...IXszs.png:large That's remarkable agreement for it being October 25 + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 00z GFS looks to be going the route of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 It will be interesting to see how quickly the trough/cold front work through the country...if the eastward movement is slower in speed this would allow for the system in the Atlantic more room to work further west towards the east coast resulting in a better opportunity for the system to have more of an interaction with the trough...or at least an even better shot for moisture from the system to be drawn in. If the movement of the front/trough is faster in nature that would vastly decrease the chances for the Atlantic system to move closer to the coast. Of course, however, not only will the timing/speed of the front/trough be of importance but the speed of the Atlantic system as well. On the GFS it does appear that once the trough/front get to the mid-section of the country it's eastward progression does slow a bit as the front slightly weakens and the trough continues to dig further south...we see models too many times though become way too aggressive with digging troughs too deep so just another thing to keep an eye on. Anyways, at some point we could see a period for some decent rainfall potential as there could be lots of moisture advecting northward from the Gulf along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yeah the 00z is pretty far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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