Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 While the 18z GFS suggests that 99L goes out to sea, notice that it has nowhere to go as the blocking cutoff low prevents much in the way of northward movement. The solution in a way is more akin to Grace and the Halloween Storm (1991) where Grace gets ripped apart as a new stronger extratropical cyclone develops off the Northeast shoreline. One of my best Met experiences ever, sustained 24 hours of high end storm force winds, with rogue waves breaking above 30 feet. I would hit this scenario in a heart beat. Long week of model watching, not boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 The pattern looks favorable for some sort of storminess...but people need to remember that doesn't mean a Hazel redux or whatever...it could easily be just the PJ troughiness digging in and giving a run of the mill coastal or a graze with rainy weather. There's a difference between saying the pattern overall may favor some storminess and that we are looking at a massive high-impact 1 in 50 year event. Yeah exactly... the runs are fun to look at now. It's a novelty really. There isn't anyone that knows what they're talking about or looking at that thinks the chances of a Hazel redux are "good" or "likely" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Too many weenies and bad mets have Twitter accounts, Facebook pages, and blogs. The hype we're seeing now is absolutely unreal. People are emailing the station about a snow hurricane and others have posted on Twitter about 90 mph winds in New York City. I mean come on. It won't get any better it will only get worse, The rumor mill is even more rampant because of all the outlets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Some models are also not showing it. But, that isn't the point and I didn't mean to infer that you were hyping. You have to understand that some of those solutions would be extremely rare. They are anomalous for a reason...they simply don't happen often. It's wise to expect a more realistic outcome and that's what we are saying. It's not impossible for it to be a much higher impact...the modeled H5 pattern could support something very anomalous...but you are setting yourself up to be disappointed if you expect something close to the 12z Euro or GFS. Even something in between has a much higher chance of occurring. Did i say the extreme solutions would happen?. You are just repeating what I said before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I'm agreeing with him..Everyone was all liking the chances of a storm before the 18z GFS came and bam negative thoughts and such. Man I've been a lurker for a few weeks(even tho i reg in JAN) and am not liking this forum at all. No, not "everyone" was liking the chances of a storm, just the irrational weenies who have zero clue how to compose a forecast and just rip and read solutions models have to offer. Do you how many storms long range models show in the 180+ HR timeframe throughout the course of a year? You want to make a bet on exactly how many of them occur? Is there potential for a storm? Well sure, but to go as far as saying this will be a major event or anything along those lines is completely irresponsible. Computer models love to jump to extremes in the medium and long range. Anyone with a semblance of intelligence knows this, if someone can't understand that than this place probably isn't for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Did i say the extreme solutions would happen?. You are just repeating what I said before. Nobody went from optimistic to pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Here's one local source of the hype http://wxedge.com/articles/20131021models_predict_perfect_storm_part_ii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Something tells me we may need some 5 ppds soon. Might have to start handing out halloween candy early this year if we have the Euro going nuts during this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Too many weenies and bad mets have Twitter accounts, Facebook pages, and blogs. The hype we're seeing now is absolutely unreal. People are emailing the station about a snow hurricane and others have posted on Twitter about 90 mph winds in New York City. I mean come on. first tweet I saw today KFS @TollandKev: Prepare for another Halloween without power in NEw Eng as we get destroyed by Sandy Hey at least it's not, holy torch tweets and GW is real. The Met community is feeding the hype too, couple more days and the media producers will have you guys like you doing live shots from Emergency MGMT headquarters. Only thing I will say is sigs are there for a decent event with high end potential QPF and low end potential high wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Mods may need to come down with a hammer in this thread soon lol Probably should unplug all toasters and man local bridges just in case 00z runs trend poorly too. Just to be safe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I just did I don't have to let you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Here's one local source of the hype http://wxedge.com/articles/20131021models_predict_perfect_storm_part_ii Hype gets hits, unfortunately. That article seems like another case of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 You being pessimistic " Treat models as comedy relief for a few more days. It's not worth getting pumped up right now." It's called realistic. This is a science forum. Not a hype forum.People think 1 in 200 year storms grow on trees. They need to stop reading CtBlizz posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Hype gets hits. Yeah apparently. Not sure the point of mentioning a category 1 hurricane for NYC around Halloween based off a 180 hour forecast. That's just me I guess lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yeah apparently. Not sure the point of mentioning a category 1 hurricane for NYC around Halloween based off a 180 hour forecast. That's just me I guess lol. For anybody who knows what they're talking about, it kills credibility. But unfortunately that type of tweet will surely make the rounds and they'll get a ton of people talking about the incoming perfect storm redux, 90 mph winds, 15 inches of rain, and certain death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The lurker's need to relax in addition to the regulars. Be careful not to sound too unwelcoming! This, glad you said it. Kind of sad. I do not know why anybody gets upset over discussion either way. A science forum that is not hype might have a title that's says, Model xxx shows Hazel like solution for potential Sandy. I like the title but some I guess can not discern discussion from forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 It's only October 21st and the hype is already all over the place... I wonder what the real winter will look like at this rate. I just hope last year's lack of hype due to the non-winter doesn't mean we're making up for it this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Clearly the thread title is dripping with sarcasm. Does anyone expect a category 4 hurricane in NC? You know that answer Starts with K ends with N. Most of us get it. Anyway all models do show that mega block and the big SD deviation, always a good sign for potential. I am sure most of the long timers understand that benign prolonged weather periods often end with a bang. Just something to discuss pros and cons . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 You know that answer Starts with K ends with V. Most of us get it. Anyway all models do show that mega block and the big SD deviation, always a good sign for potential. I am sure most of the long timers understand that benign prolonged weather periods often end with a bang. Just something to discuss pros and cons . Yup blocking very impressive. Something will happen... just don't know what yet lol. I actually think the 18z GFS is a pretty reasonable solution given the synoptics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yup blocking very impressive. Something will happen... just don't know what yet lol. I actually think the 18z GFS is a pretty reasonable solution given the synoptics. ENS? Love the Perfect storm evolution though. Fun times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yup blocking very impressive. Something will happen... just don't know what yet lol. I actually think the 18z GFS is a pretty reasonable solution given the synoptics. Well its a foot of rain and 90mph winds or bust I guess. I do buy the fact that some sort of tropical moisture probably gets caught up in this and will probably enhance the rain in some areas along the East Coast. I think that is probably the lower limit. Decent potential for even a wave intensifying and giving some a pretty good nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I hope you all know that 18Z was just a refresher of the 12Z. New data does not get added into the model till the 0Z. So IF the 0Z goes back to the 12Z run then the 18Z is probably a outlier for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Well its a foot of rain and 90mph winds or bust I guess. I do buy the fact that some sort of tropical moisture probably gets caught up in this and will probably enhance the rain in some areas along the East Coast. I think that is probably the lower limit. Decent potential for even a wave intensifying and giving some a pretty good nor'easter. Yeah that certainly would not surprise me. Given the downstream ridging I could see a pretty decent coastal low developing with the potential for some tropical moisture entrained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I hope you all know that 18Z was just a refresher of the 12Z. New data does not get added into the model till the 0Z. So IF the 0Z goes back to the 12Z run then the 18Z is probably a outlier for the time being. Wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Well its a foot of rain and 90mph winds or bust I guess. I do buy the fact that some sort of tropical moisture probably gets caught up in this and will probably enhance the rain in some areas along the East Coast. I think that is probably the lower limit. Decent potential for even a wave intensifying and giving some a pretty good nor'easter. Yea we have, the regulars here, have been saying this for the past three days. I do hawk back to the long lead model consensus ( on the pattern ) days of old. Confidence pretty high that a not normal 5 H evolution develops which means nothing sensible weather speaking however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Im just point out a fact. Was not directed at you. It is not a fact though. It does not benefit from correction based off the 12z or 00z raobs, but current data from mesonets and radar are used for input into initial conditions. Edit: Forgot to mention satellite data as well, like QuikSCAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 reasoning or proof? not trying to be hostile, that's just what i was taught about the runs. Reasoning or proof?There's maybe no actual RAOBs that go up for the 18z/6z obs, but there's plenty of other new data that goes into them...both sfc and upper air. Satellites can do amazing things these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 i would just ask people not to be so afraid of fantasizing about what could be when it comes to storms 180 hours out, it seems people go out of their way to make sure others aren't "set up to be let down" when in reality i think most of the people that fantasize the discussion about the hazel outcome or the perfect storm they AREN'T forecasting this lol. I would think they can handle imagining and dreaming it could happen and then at the same time realize that on the 29'th when the forecast more LIKELY reads , mostly cloudy chance of showers, could be wind gusts to 25 that they will not have a mental breakdown, they can handle discussing the possibilities wether remote, because it is not often that we get to do so, i don't understand why the pro's seem to lose the ability to fantasize about what could be and maintain the ability to realize it won't be , or not think others can. Seems like it's evil and dangerous to discuss what could be 180 hours out, even if it is understood we don't think it will LIKELY be. It's like saying that *since it's not likely it shouldn't be discussed* , and i think that is the crux of what i perceive and take issue with, people should be given the benefit of the doubt that they understand its not likely , but its exciting to discuss the possibility none the less if they so choose, without ridicule. Is this wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 i would just ask people not to be so afraid of fantasizing about what could be when it comes to storms 180 hours out, it seems people go out of their way to make sure others aren't "set up to be let down" when in reality i think most of the people that fantasize the discussion about the hazel outcome or the perfect storm they AREN'T forecasting this lol. I would think they can handle imagining and dreaming it could happen and then at the same time realize that on the 29'th when the forecast more LIKELY reads , mostly cloudy chance of showers, could be wind gusts to 25 that they will not have a mental breakdown, they can handle discussing the possibilities wether remote, because it is not often that we get to do so, i don't understand why the pro's seem to lose the ability to fantasize about what could be and maintain the ability to realize it won't be , or not think others can. Seems like it's evil and dangerous to discuss what could be 180 hours out, even if it is understood we don't think it will LIKELY be. It's like saying that *since it's not likely it shouldn't be discussed* , and i think that is the crux of what i perceive and take issue with, people should be given the benefit of the doubt that they understand its not likely , but its exciting to discuss the possibility none the less if they so choose, without ridicule. Is this wrong? It's been talked about all day, but the weenies get out of control sometimes and need to be reminded that we're looking at 168hr progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Models also use the previous model run forecast as a first guess too. It allows for less dramatic shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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