CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'm getting the distinct impression from the most recent NHC advisories that they are looking forward to washing their hands of it ASAP and declaring it extratropical, or at least want to. In the first advisories they were talking a lot about it being subtropical. I bet the NHC-HPC coordination calls have been interesting already, and they'll be getting more interesting in the future. Assuming the Storm o' Doom verifies, I agree that for the public nothing would be worse than issuing a last advisory because it's "Extratropical" (even though that may be true) as it's off North Carolina or something. Yes... it really would be a disaster if they did that. I hope they don't.... but they did it so abruptly with Noel many of the NWSFOs were surprised. Let's hope they don't but I fear they will. If their job is to protect life and property... washing their hands of the storm o' doom is about the dumbest thing they could do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Right. Hurricane forecasting is fundamentally different in some ways than conventional weather forecasting. It's a different thing to forecast a line or cone track for a focal point five days out than to estimate the progress of a frontal system. If anything, the NHC's position forecast should be a red flag against any forecast/guidance pulling Sandy westwards early on - these guys may play it 'safe' in terms of trends, but do know what they're doing. At least through day 4 the models are pretty tightly clustered. Days 5 and 6 start to show huge spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think the NHC keeps it going and names it subtropical. There would be absolutely no benefit to the public for doing anything else. wouldn't be surprised if they kept the sub off the tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I have never seen such disagreement between an operational model and it's ensembles before. 12z UKM Ensembles 12z CMC ensembles neat..May I ask where did you get these from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 box had this site on their twitter page and its awesome!!! http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/ Wow!.....Great site! Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Since some people like the EnKF GFS Ensembles NOTE: Some indies were quicker with the storm and already weaken it on land by this time. 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Wow, did not know the UKM ensembles were available. Interesting, they are much different than the op. I have never seen such disagreement between an operational model and it's ensembles before. 12z UKM Ensembles 12z CMC ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 neat..May I ask where did you get these from? Coincidentally, indeedsnow posted the link right after my post. But here it is. http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Coincidentally, indeedsnow posted the link right after my post. But here it is. http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/ Wow that site is awesome!!! Even Euro ensemble tracks for first 72 or 96 hours it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmanbos Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Coincidentally, indeedsnow posted the link right after my post. But here it is. http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/ how do you get this thing to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 New thread..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Wow that site is awesome!!! Even Euro ensemble tracks for first 72 or 96 hours it looks like. GFDL from 12z this morning was interesting..some wiggles to the left and then to the right but mean motion averaging almost due north or 10-20 degrees to the right of due north; also of interest for 00z-28 oct it has the CP around 953 at 32.4N74.4W (approx) winds 68kts forecast 28/18z oct the pressure goes down to 944 millibars and winds up to 74 kts. Grant it this latter position is close to being on the northwall of the Gulstream but the GFDL appears to be keeping this thing tropical longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 New thread..... http://www.americanw...22#entry1807122 Yep, long overdue. This one is way too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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