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Who Needs Hazel When You Have Sandy


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I'm getting the distinct impression from the most recent NHC advisories that they are looking forward to washing their hands of it ASAP and declaring it extratropical, or at least want to. In the first advisories they were talking a lot about it being subtropical.

I bet the NHC-HPC coordination calls have been interesting already, and they'll be getting more interesting in the future.

Assuming the Storm o' Doom verifies, I agree that for the public nothing would be worse than issuing a last advisory because it's "Extratropical" (even though that may be true) as it's off North Carolina or something.

Yes... it really would be a disaster if they did that. I hope they don't.... but they did it so abruptly with Noel many of the NWSFOs were surprised.

Let's hope they don't but I fear they will.

If their job is to protect life and property... washing their hands of the storm o' doom is about the dumbest thing they could do.

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Right. Hurricane forecasting is fundamentally different in some ways than conventional weather forecasting. It's a different thing to forecast a line or cone track for a focal point five days out than to estimate the progress of a frontal system.

If anything, the NHC's position forecast should be a red flag against any forecast/guidance pulling Sandy westwards early on - these guys may play it 'safe' in terms of trends, but do know what they're doing.

At least through day 4 the models are pretty tightly clustered. Days 5 and 6 start to show huge spread.

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Wow that site is awesome!!! Even Euro ensemble tracks for first 72 or 96 hours it looks like.

GFDL from 12z this morning was interesting..some wiggles to the left and then to the right but mean motion averaging almost due north or 10-20 degrees to the right of due north; also of interest for 00z-28 oct it has the CP around 953 at 32.4N74.4W (approx) winds 68kts forecast 28/18z oct the pressure goes down to 944 millibars and winds up to 74 kts. Grant it this latter position is close to being on the northwall of the Gulstream but the GFDL appears to be keeping this thing tropical longer.

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