N. OF PIKE Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It is forecast to be cat 1 going over Jamaica so that not surprising well intensity forecasts do not have great accuracy, track is forecast so much more accurately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 What's the O-U for number of new threads started before this all winds down next week ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 just about all of them nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 just about all of them nice Some of those are late retros and result in a weak solution by the time they get back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 What's the O-U for number of new threads started before this all winds down next week ? total threads for New england (including this one) is 4.5 Over -125 Under +105 i'm placing a heavy bet on the under, due to one reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Some of those are late retros and result in a weak solution by the time they get back here. Still big rain producers though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 yeah but its a good step alot of them earlier took sandy ots and didnt bring her back Some of those are late retros and result in a weak solution by the time they get back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Strength and intensity is an issue but it is showing less spread going completely OTS. To me that is a significant thing. Some of those are late retros and result in a weak solution by the time they get back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 1346 but who's counting........... I get the total posts including the deleted ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 yeah but its a good step alot of them earlier took sandy ots and didnt bring her back Was thinking the same thing. But I don't know much so didn't say anything. Overall I think the fact that the recurve is happening more frequently is great. I too hope for massive destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Strength and intensity is an issue but it is showing less spread going completely OTS. To me that is a significant thing. Yes. Agreed. If this continues the op GFS OTS track may be off the table. Then we're left to figure out if it's a brush-by nor'easter... a retro kind of nor'easter... or a full fledged hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 well intensity forecasts do not have great accuracy, track is forecast so much more accurately. Well looking at a WV loop, It looked pretty healthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 18z GEFS. More and more members are showing the capture. does anyone have the one from 12z saved? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 18z GEFS. More and more members are showing the capture. Another view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yes. Agreed. If this continues the op GFS OTS track may be off the table. Then we're left to figure out if it's a brush-by nor'easter... a retro kind of nor'easter... or a full fledged hurricane. Euro would still remain on the left side of the GEFS ensemble individual members , but I think there is at least some hints of convergence to a solution. That can all get wiped away in a couple of hours though -- we're still at the range where anything is on the table, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I get the total posts including the deleted ones. ah i see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Can I add one more...I do not think this will be tropical this far north rather a nor'easter that stemmed from tropical characteristics... Yes. Agreed. If this continues the op GFS OTS track may be off the table. Then we're left to figure out if it's a brush-by nor'easter... a retro kind of nor'easter... or a full fledged hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 ugh thats the 6z one does anyone have the one from 12z saved? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Can I add one more...I do not think this will be tropical this far north rather a nor'easter that stemmed from tropical characteristics... Yeah... it may still be warm core... but no doubt a hybrid. That said some of our big storms (1938) have been hybrids... which I still consider a hurricane lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Here's the 12z Ukie... quite east http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/UKHEMI_12z/ukloop.html Notice how far east Sandy is able to get as the big NATL ocean low slides east and allows the omega block to set up several hundred miles east of where the Euro does it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 That could be a nightmare expressing that to the public. Ahh discussion for another day. Yeah... it may still be warm core... but no doubt a hybrid. That said some of our big storms (1938) have been hybrids... which I still consider a hurricane lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 That could be a nightmare expressing that to the public. Ahh discussion for another day. I think the NHC keeps it going and names it subtropical. There would be absolutely no benefit to the public for doing anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Another view. Nice image! where did you get it from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 any one scratching their head why the NHC has this thing to the right of the CMC, UKMET, ECMWF and its ENS and the GEFS at this point on its day 4/5 progs. what am i missing. do they give extraordinary weight to the GFS OP and other models derived from that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Have to be up for work at 230A. Blah. At least I'll be up to see the new Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 any one scratching their head why the NHC has this thing to the right of the CMC, UKMET, ECMWF and its ENS and the GEFS at this point on its day 4/5 progs. what am i missing. do they give extraordinary weight to the GFS OP and other models derived from that? First, they are not ones to deviate quick...a good way to approach forecasting in the day 4-5 range. Secondly, lots of the cyclone guidance is GFS based so that's something to consider. Of course, that does not mean they have to be OTS because these models do use different parameterizations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I have never seen such disagreement between an operational model and it's ensembles before. 12z UKM Ensembles 12z CMC ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 box had this site on their twitter page and its awesome!!! http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think the NHC keeps it going and names it subtropical. There would be absolutely no benefit to the public for doing anything else. I'm getting the distinct impression from the most recent NHC advisories that they are looking forward to washing their hands of it ASAP and declaring it extratropical, or at least want to. In the first advisories they were talking a lot about it being subtropical. I bet the NHC-HPC coordination calls have been interesting already, and they'll be getting more interesting in the future. Assuming the Storm o' Doom verifies, I agree that for the public nothing would be worse than issuing a last advisory because it's "Extratropical" (even though that may be true) as it's off North Carolina or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 First, they are not ones to deviate quick...a good way to approach forecasting in the day 4-5 range. Right. Hurricane forecasting is fundamentally different in some ways than conventional weather forecasting. It's a different thing to forecast a line or cone track for a focal point five days out than to estimate the progress of a frontal system. If anything, the NHC's position forecast should be a red flag against any forecast/guidance pulling Sandy westwards early on - these guys may play it 'safe' in terms of trends, but do know what they're doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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