CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Of course, doesn't change the fact that it's cool to see. Ryan, I messaged you about something Where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I always maintain low expectations so you don't end up with a major disappointment, Still a bunch of model runs to get thru before we have some type of a consensus, That may not even be until Friday I'm thinking a decent or maybe powerful nor'easter. Probably not a complete miss, certainly not the extreme solutions weenies are looking for. Sandy might serve to be something more like Grace in '91, an extra boost for a powerful nor'easter in a blocky pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 i don't like the (modeled) slow speed of the system. hazel and 38 were both charging northward and this helped enhance the wind on the east side Well I'm not sure that slow speed will verify. If the absorption occurs I bet the speed will wind up faster than modeled. If the slow speed/stall did verify that's a worst case scenario from a coastal flooding and possibly tree damage/inland flooding perspective. 3 hours of storm force winds or 18 hours? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Well I'm not sure that slow speed will verify. If the absorption occurs I bet the speed will wind up faster than modeled. If the slow speed/stall did verify that's a worst case scenario from a coastal flooding and possibly tree damage/inland flooding perspective. 3 hours of storm force winds or 18 hours? lol I'm sure at some point Sandy would speed up, however, if we do see the strong blocking develop that some models have shown Sandy may end up slowing down once it nears our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Oh I think for the extreme/Euro-esque solution you're right. I think for the OTS/GFS solution it's really an issue of downstream ridging/blocking and any weakness that develops. I see what you mean. Yeah the GFS sneaky scooters its way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Well I'm not sure that slow speed will verify. If the absorption occurs I bet the speed will wind up faster than modeled. If the slow speed/stall did verify that's a worst case scenario from a coastal flooding and possibly tree damage/inland flooding perspective. 3 hours of storm force winds or 18 hours? lol dr. hart's presentation on the 38 storm mentions how the model simulations were too slow with the movement northward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Well I'm not sure that slow speed will verify. If the absorption occurs I bet the speed will wind up faster than modeled. If the slow speed/stall did verify that's a worst case scenario from a coastal flooding and possibly tree damage/inland flooding perspective. 3 hours of storm force winds or 18 hours? lol Capture and stall near benchmark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 dr. hart's presentation on the 38 storm mentions how the model simulations were too slow with the movement northward I think he mentioned pretty much every lf (floyd, bob, gloria etc) being progged too slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Where? FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I just noticed my zfp and p/c have 50% chances of rain Monday-Tuesday. I don't know if I've ever seen that a week in advance.......maybe I just haven't paid attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiWxWatcher Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 50% chances of rain next week out in MA...jeez, I hope some of the crazier models don't verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think he mentioned pretty much every lf (floyd, bob, gloria etc) being progged too slow. How will models handle fujiwhara interaction with big low in N Atlantic too? Are they struggling with that? WIll they continue too as well? Fujiwhara doesn't have to be a W Pac giant loop... can influence track without a full or even really discernible loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 How will models handle fujiwhara interaction with big low in N Atlantic too? Are they struggling with that? WIll they continue too as well? Fujiwhara doesn't have to be a W Pac giant loop... can influence track without a full or even really discernible loop. Like Kevin's two hairs that try to Fujiwhara around each other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'm thinking a decent or maybe powerful nor'easter. Probably not a complete miss, certainly not the extreme solutions weenies are looking for. Sandy might serve to be something more like Grace in '91, an extra boost for a powerful nor'easter in a blocky pattern. I would lean more towards the nor easter as well, A lesser of the extreme solution and more realistic along the east coast this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 If Sandy is tracking close enough to qualify as a nor'easter than this won't be the typical run-of-the mill type nor'easter, this would be much more significant than that. Tracking close enough to be a nor'easter would pretty much mean she is phasing with the trough and Polar Jet and if that happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 If Sandy is tracking close enough to qualify as a nor'easter than this won't be the typical run-of-the mill type nor'easter, this would be much more significant than that. Tracking close enough to be a nor'easter would pretty much mean she is phasing with the trough and Polar Jet and if that happens... Not necessarily... it could do a sort of meander off the Cape/ACK or off Nova Scotia... get captured and do a retro. As the storm retros it will peak right around the time of capture and then fill. As it drifts west it will continue to weaken and the pressure field will expand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GGEM and 18z GFS had the retro effect, That is not off the table as well as all the other solutions, Just something else to watch how this all evolves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Not necessarily... it could do a sort of meander off the Cape/ACK or off Nova Scotia... get captured and do a retro. As the storm retros it will peak right around the time of capture and then fill. As it drifts west it will continue to weaken and the pressure field will expand. Yeah that's a great point...I didn't think about this sort of scenario and probably misunderstood the context of some of the posts...when I read nor'easter I was just thinking of the system riding up close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 65kt flight level winds so far MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 65 KT SE QUAD 00:35:00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 GGEM and 18z GFS had the retro effect, That is not off the table as well as all the other solutions, Just something else to watch how this all evolves Yup... and that solution while possibly significant for ENE beaches with coastal flood threats... I think that's a ho hum solution for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yup... and that solution while possibly significant for ENE beaches with coastal flood threats... I think that's a ho hum solution for most of us. Would probably be portions of ME that end up with some decent rains and of course the coastal flooding. We just get to enjoy clouds/showers and the passage of a strong front! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yup... and that solution while possibly significant for ENE beaches with coastal flood threats... I think that's a ho hum solution for most of us. Agree that is not all that appealing of a scenario, The euro just seem to be way to extreme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 i think recon found a closed eye wall in sandy (32) miles across as well as FL level 64knot and 57 knot SFMR in moderate rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Would probably be portions of ME that end up with some decent rains and of course the coastal flooding. We just get to enjoy clouds/showers and the passage of a strong front! Probably a couple days back now i had mentioned the Maritimes or DE Maine on this storm, Sort of like the retrograde from hell storm Jan 2010 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Someone want to get a new thread started for the 00z runs. This thread is up to 1500 posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 i think recon found a closed eye wall in sandy (32) miles across as well as FL level 64knot and 57 knot SFMR in moderate rain It is forecast to be cat 1 going over Jamaica so that not surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 you have good juju bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Sandy Vortex (10/24 00:09:40Z): MSLP: 991mb; Inbound Flt. Lvl. Wind (Item F.): 40kts (~46.0mph); Max Flt. Wind (from Remarks): 65kts (~74.8mph) (View Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Someone want to get a new thread started for the 00z runs. This thread is up to 1500 posts. 1346 but who's counting........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 18z GEFS. More and more members are showing the capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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