Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The 18z GFS isn't too far off if we can just pull some lower H85 temps into the region. Its also not that far off from a sweet upslope event... <duck and running> Like you Ginxy, I'm starting to get impressed...some of these solutions would have incredible winds at 2,000-6,000ft. The obs from the mountain summits would be ridiculous. Opposite the mountains, I think the chances for ocean impacts is pretty high right now. Regardless of which model is right, the coastal and fishing waters are going to see some big wave heights. I mean if this closes off further East and we , meaning elevation interior, ends up like interior PA, why wouldn't this be an off shore bomb with snow interior. There's your cold Hunchie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I have noticed this as well, it basically creates an escape route for Sandy as well. Only the GFS is doing this too. sounds like typical gfs bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 While up here it was the opposite... pure euphoria going from partly-cloudy-smokin-cirrus to 3 feet of snow inside of 48 hours. I was in Newry Maine, Epic. Just wanted to relate by bringing up 01 that absolutes are not always what they seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 with all of these profile icons, we need one that quotes eck "expect the best, hope for the worst" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 steve all this talk about perfect timing, i'm not sure thatis entirely accurate the block is so strong and persistant that it seems sandy will give a SW a longer window of opp, i.e there is room for error for a phase to occur i mean THAT is why the euro has shown this for run after run after run after run etc this far out. the euro didn't just pull a royal straight flush out of it's ass five runs in a row due to perfect timing x 5 runs. i think yet timing is still yet important, but there is room for error. (at least if we assume the euro is correct with the blocking pattern it's modeled consistently) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Wow Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN 12Z GFS Ensemble Mean: http://ow.ly/i/13khk 12Z EC Ensemble Mean:http://ow.ly/i/13khv Now that's a match. Remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A 526 ULL over a 940 Warm air secluded system? Hard to imagine the convection process not being other worldly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 steve all this talk about perfect timing, i'm not sure thatis entirely accurate the block is so strong and persistant that it seems sandy will give a SW a longer window of opp, i.e there is room for error for a phase to occur i mean THAT is why the euro has shown this for run after run after run after run etc this far out. the euro didn't just pull a royal straight flush out of it's ass five runs in a row due to perfect timing x 5 runs. i think yet timing is still yet important, but there is room for error. (at least if we assume the euro is correct with the blocking pattern it's modeled consistently) Faster means cuts into DC, slower Newfoundland, would you say that would be accurate timing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 Blog post update: http://ryanhanrahan.com/2012/10/23/sandy-please-start-your-jog-east/ Also... I'd be wary of using ensemble means to show you a lot. A few wildly deep members can lead to some funky looking things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Where has Wiz been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 wow...that tweet that Kevin posted...wow those ens are remarkably similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I am educating Friends/Family a potential storm threat exists, could be a hit, could be a miss, but to plan accordingly. IF the threat materializes then the store rush sat and sun will nuts! I can't believe people are taking this threat so seriously. The 12z and 18z GFS were both very far east, and the ECM has backed down on the PNA ridging which is going to limit how much of a full-latitude trough we see with the system. I'd give this less than a 10% shot of SNE seeing any impacts, except the Cape where it's maybe 25%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 I can't believe people are taking this threat so seriously. The 12z and 18z GFS were both very far east, and the ECM has backed down on the PNA ridging which is going to limit how much of a full-latitude trough we see with the system. I'd give this less than a 10% shot of SNE seeing any impacts, except the Cape where it's maybe 25%. Well I'm not sure the PNA ridging is all that important to be honest. It's more an issue of a well time shortwave and exceptional downstream blocking. I think odds are good we see some impact but that could be as little as a breeze and some showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I wish ewall would fix those hgt tendency shadings and put the warm colors with the + tendencies and vice versa. It plays with my trained eye. That drives me nuts too. It makes no sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I can't believe people are taking this threat so seriously. The 12z and 18z GFS were both very far east, and the ECM has backed down on the PNA ridging which is going to limit how much of a full-latitude trough we see with the system. I'd give this less than a 10% shot of SNE seeing any impacts, except the Cape where it's maybe 25%. Pull the socks back over your head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 looks like it's about to steadily intensify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 guys i know this is somewhat related question to ask, and since there is more action on this thread, i'd like to ask about the current state of SANDY, have her centers stacked/alligned this eve or are they still plagued by being displaced like this am (and seemingly like most tropical systems have been this year)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Well I'm not sure the PNA ridging is all that important to be honest. It's more an issue of a well time shortwave and exceptional downstream blocking. I think odds are good we see some impact but that could be as little as a breeze and some showers. I thought the ridge was important to help dig and slow the s/w down. When we have that, I think the chances are better for the timing to be right. At least IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 wow...that tweet that Kevin posted...wow those ens are remarkably similar. If it were 60hrs that's one thing. But 156 hrs or whatever out....lots of things can happen. I still like setting the bar at something like a nor'easter like deal from low pressure trough or a wave developing along the front. The ensemble agreement is concerning, but at the same time....people need to appreciate the magic that has to occur for it to happen. Of course as we get closer and it appears to look better than we can sound the alarm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 socks makes a valid point about keeping an eye on the PNA ridging the euro shows. Is the loss of ridging a trend on the euro or just an adjustment, or blip on the screen. i thought it was important , but i don't know much lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I always maintain low expectations so you don't end up with a major disappointment, Still a bunch of model runs to get thru before we have some type of a consensus, That may not even be until Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 I thought the ridge was important to help dig and slow the s/w down. When we have that, I think the chances are better for the timing to be right. At least IMHO. Oh I think for the extreme/Euro-esque solution you're right. I think for the OTS/GFS solution it's really an issue of downstream ridging/blocking and any weakness that develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 8pm advisory has sandy at 993mb recon just found 991 now 990 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 socks makes a valid point about keeping an eye on the PNA ridging the euro shows. Is the loss of ridging a trend on the euro or just an adjustment, or blip on the screen. i thought it was important , but i don't know much lol It seems to be just a hair flatter ea run which is effecting the trough over the Tennessee valley, Just something to watch down the road i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Where has Wiz been? Working...Tuesday's right now through end of January I do ~10 hour work days. Anyways just looked at GFS/Euro and I still believe the most realistic outcome at this point is an inverted trough setup bringing moisture from Sandy westward and interacting with the trough/front as it moves across New England. Would certainly have to watch out for some hefty rainfall totals somewhere across the region. one thing that makes me a bit uneasy about Sandy tracking further west towards the coast is both the Euro and GFS have a pretty strong STJ with a potent STJ streak located across FL extending into the Atlantic...the steering flow is also quite strong and I would suspect this would lead to a further east track of Sandy. Given this, however, the Euro still has Sandy tracking further west and eventually being caught by the trough...I would think ,given the time range we are in this could be a bias of the euro just being phase happy While the Euro does amplify the trough moreso than the GFS does, given the position of the trough axis I find it a little difficult to think Sandy would track that far west. It should be interesting watching Sandy though as she interacts with that STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 i don't like the (modeled) slow speed of the system. hazel and 38 were both charging northward and this helped enhance the wind on the east side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 If it were 60hrs that's one thing. But 156 hrs or whatever out....lots of things can happen. I still like setting the bar at something like a nor'easter like deal from low pressure trough or a wave developing along the front. The ensemble agreement is concerning, but at the same time....people need to appreciate the magic that has to occur for it to happen. Of course as we get closer and it appears to look better than we can sound the alarm. Of course, doesn't change the fact that it's cool to see. Ryan, I messaged you about something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 my main skeptism is with the strength of sandy, i have seen more tropical storms this year have difficulty alligning their centers then i can ever recall, most this year never got their act together, and i attribute alot of it to this displacement of LLC/MLC's. Does the euro show sandy as a formidable cane or a disjointed mess /strong tropical storm? off the SE (Fl) coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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