Turtle Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I wish some of these guys making incredible statements could go back and read. I am very surprised at some of the absolutes I read today. A gradual ramp up seems prudent. Sure today has an incredible amount of agreement but as we know this is a storm that needs perfect timing and 6-7 days out is not the time for absolutes. Exactly right, Steve. One never knows what will happen. Yes, the EC has been remarkably consistent this far out, but one little perturbation 6 days out can really make a big change. Having said that, I'm REALLY worried, and I'm the long term forecaster at BOX tonight (sigh...). --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 yes as would 99% of us on this board lol... why are you already setting your hopes up so far out? I don't think a lot of folks would be pissed because its still 5-7 days out and some models (like the GFS and now GGEM) have this out to sea. If all models are showing a direct hit at hour 72, and then it bails out to sea, I could see folks getting upset. But its going to be a long winter if you get mad because a day 6 prog was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Wow Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN 12Z GFS Ensemble Mean: http://ow.ly/i/13khk 12Z EC Ensemble Mean:http://ow.ly/i/13khv Now that's a match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Exactly right, Steve. One never knows what will happen. Yes, the EC has been remarkably consistent this far out, but one little perturbation 6 days out can really make a big change. Having said that, I'm REALLY worried, and I'm the long term forecaster at BOX tonight (sigh...). --Turtle Amp and get as crazy as possible in the AFD. Folks need to understand the seriousness of the situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 lol... why are you already setting your hopes up so far out? I don't think a lot of folks would be pissed because its still 5-7 days out and some models (like the GFS and now GGEM) have this out to sea. If all models are showing a direct hit at hour 72, and then it bails out to sea, I could see folks getting upset. But its going to be a long winter if you get mad because a day 6 prog was wrong. You must not have a twitter or you must not follow Matt Noyes. He just posted and dispelled the notion that atleast the GFS is out to sea. And at the end of the GGEM, she is coming back to us as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 lol... why are you already setting your hopes up so far out? I don't think a lot of folks would be pissed because its still 5-7 days out and some models (like the GFS and now GGEM) have this out to sea. If all models are showing a direct hit at hour 72, and then it bails out to sea, I could see folks getting upset. But its going to be a long winter if you get mad because a day 6 prog was wrong. Wow Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN 12Z GFS Ensemble Mean: http://ow.ly/i/13khk 12Z EC Ensemble Mean:http://ow.ly/i/13khv Now that's a match. When Ens means come into agreement, pretty sure there is going to be a storm but what intensity and what latitude. Totally impressed though at this hour. What do we need for this to be a NE interior elevation all out blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 You must not have a twitter or you must not follow Matt Noyes. He just posted and dispelled the notion that atleast the GFS is out to sea. And at the end of the GGEM, she is coming back to us as well. I noted that earlier today as well it was getting tugged west the last couple panels, Similar to the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Amp and get as crazy as possible in the AFD. Folks need to understand the seriousness of the situation Lol you don't want to scare people, then if it doesn't happen people won't take you serious next time, c'mon. I'd agree with Sultan that a gradual increase in warning is the prudent way to go, should model agreement continue, and then maybe within Day 4 if this is still on the board, that's when it's really time to ramp it up a bit faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 18z GEFS almost escape but shows it moving to the Cape again. However the mean seems to show low pressure developing along the front. In other words, not all members sling NW. I think the low developing along the front is still a viable solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 When Ens means come into agreement, pretty sure there is going to be a storm but what intensity and what latitude. Totally impressed though at this hour. What do we need for this to be a NE interior elevation all out blizzard? TBH . I would prefer the Euro solution over that. This is what our love and fascination with the wx is all about. Is it somewhat sick? Yes, but for me the thrill is tremendous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Good luck to the pro mets and NWS mets with this one And Ginx/Sultan... Snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I am educating Friends/Family a potential storm threat exists, could be a hit, could be a miss, but to plan accordingly. IF the threat materializes then the store rush sat and sun will nuts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A few really late hooks into SNE on the 18z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 When Ens means come into agreement, pretty sure there is going to be a storm but what intensity and what latitude. Totally impressed though at this hour. What do we need for this to be a NE interior elevation all out blizzard? Try for some cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 You must not have a twitter or you must not follow Matt Noyes. He just posted and dispelled the notion that atleast the GFS is out to sea. And at the end of the GGEM, she is coming back to us as well. Yeah that Noyes tweet Blizz posted was pretty solid... I didn't know the two ensembles were that close to each other. I basically am trying to point out that at 6+ days out, its better to keep your hopes in check. Wait another couple days until the energy in the Pacific is over N.America and the RAOB rich network. All it takes is something to come ashore and get sampled properly out west, and the whole forecast changes. I'm not even talking about out-to-sea... on the other side of the envelope I could even envision something where this gets captured quickly and pulled into the center of the mid-Atlantic, also limiting effects on New England. I think to set your hopes up on a 930mb low crashing into Rhode Island is a little premature at this point, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 TBH . I would prefer the Euro solution over that. This is what our love and fascination with the wx is all about. Is it somewhat sick? Yes, but for me the thrill is tremendous This is awesome, never seen a Euro prog like that here in my life. I did laugh at the Wundermaps with 50 mph winds with a 929, that Run if at high tide would cause a surge basically unrivaled in LI sound history. I would love to see the Slosh models with tide and that angle of approach with a 929. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A few really late hooks into SNE on the 18z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Try for some cold air. Lol Last Oct we def had the cold air ready to pour in Not so this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Try for some cold air. Geez thanks Andrew, thought you went to bed. Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 This is awesome, never seen a Euro prog like that here in my life. I did laugh at the Wundermaps with 50 mph winds with a 929, that Run if at high tide would cause a surge basically unrivaled in LI sound history. I would love to see the Slosh models with tide and that angle of approach with a 929. Internal gust algorithm I saw was higher for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 This is awesome, never seen a Euro prog like that here in my life. I did laugh at the Wundermaps with 50 mph winds with a 929, that Run if at high tide would cause a surge basically unrivaled in LI sound history. I would love to see the Slosh models with tide and that angle of approach with a 929. If that pressure verified none of us would be talking to each for a very very long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 When Ens means come into agreement, pretty sure there is going to be a storm but what intensity and what latitude. Totally impressed though at this hour. What do we need for this to be a NE interior elevation all out blizzard? The 18z GFS isn't too far off if we can just pull some lower H85 temps into the region. Its also not that far off from a sweet upslope event... <duck and running> Like you Ginxy, I'm starting to get impressed...some of these solutions would have incredible winds at 2,000-6,000ft. The obs from the mountain summits would be ridiculous. Opposite the mountains, I think the chances for ocean impacts is pretty high right now. Regardless of which model is right, the coastal and fishing waters are going to see some big wave heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A few really late hooks into SNE on the 18z GEFS. Also several early bloomers, from the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Irene was barely anything when it hit NE and it caused massive amounts of damage. Irene is a pipsqueak compared to what this thing will be... I can't imagine the kind of damage and destruction it would cause. I love storms and all, but I'm praying the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Will I make it back? Arriving 4:45 pm Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 If that pressure verified none of us would be talking to each for a very very long time It would be the show Revolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I wish some of these guys making incredible statements could go back and read. I am very surprised at some of the absolutes I read today. A gradual ramp up seems prudent. Sure today has an incredible amount of agreement but as we know this is a storm that needs perfect timing and 6-7 days out is not the time for absolutes. Philly snow weenies...their death was epic in March 2001. 3 feet of snow 48 hours out to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GFS still trying to get Sandy to produce a "baby low" via the vorticity exchange between Sandy and the NATL low... despite the further distance between the two on this run. This isn't helping. I have noticed this as well, it basically creates an escape route for Sandy as well. Only the GFS is doing this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 P006 and P009 FTW. Then looking at some of the other members, if this ends up to be an inverted trough...lol, insert Tippy's cosmic dildo posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Philly snow weenies...their death was epic in March 2001. 3 feet of snow 48 hours out to nothing. While up here it was the opposite... pure euphoria going from partly-cloudy-smokin-cirrus to 3 feet of snow inside of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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