Quincy Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I don't believe it's been mentioned, but the GFDL is moved closer to the coast and the last two frames (last one in image below) indicate a nearly due-north turn. Impressive wind field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I don't believe it's been mentioned, but the GFDL is moved closer to the coast and the last two frames (last one in image below) indicate a nearly due-north turn. Impressive wind field. OH yeah - heh, tropical models... . right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I think tonight could be an interesting intensity curve for Sandy. She's drifting N now so her S-R shear is pretty much 0, and she is approaching some excessive oceanic heat content that's dammed up under the Cuban archipelago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Top story on ch 5 is this storm. Just watched it online...hmmm... surprised they would go with it at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Science, if we end up with a compromise solution a major winter storm will affect high elevation interior NE. Congrats HubbDave, 79 effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Just watched it online...hmmm... surprised they would go with it at this time. WTNH.com (News 8) has had far more traffic from the articles on the potential storm than any of the news stories. With a lack of major news stories (at least from what I've seen), it makes sense. I recommend strong caution in any wording though, so panic is not caused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Just watched it online...hmmm... surprised they would go with it at this time. The homepage of news 5 in Boston... this should keep hype to a minimum. What's also pretty funny, I didn't realize they have a whole page of "See who got arrested recently" with mug shots and crimes of folks arrested over the last day or two (250 mug shots). Funny to look through and hope you don't see someone you know, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 What's also pretty funny, I didn't realize they have a whole page of "See who got arrested recently" with mug shots and crimes of folks arrested over the last day or two (250 mug shots). Funny to look through and hope you don't see someone you know, lol. That's bad. Unnecessary. I'd say more, but I don't want to go off on a tangent from the weather discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 some pretty crazy solutions out there still. would certainly make a for a wild time out here. kind of sits in the back of the mind though...wonder if the gradual later in the game capture and NNW motion we have seen the last few days (and maybe factoring in some model biases of a too progressive / not deep enough gfs trough eventually being corrected with the system coming west some and euro-based products maybe playing to their too amped aloft problems some) a sign that this ultimately gets booted seaward from the SE US/Bahamas region, before there's a late hook N into nova scotia or thereabouts? hopefully not. i welcome wind. and destruction. lots of time regardless so will be an active several days. Diurnal showers while PF gets snow and Sable Island 90kt winds? Fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 That's bad. Unnecessary. I'd say more, but I don't want to go off on a tangent from the weather discussion. But weren't you talking about 90mph winds in NYC the other day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well if it happens at least it will be easy to name, Weather Channel not withstanding. The Great Election Day Storm of 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 But weren't you talking about 90mph winds in NYC the other day? The technical weather discussion was not on the news page and certainly not on the home page. (discussions since yesterday have had several disclaimers about forecasts changing, not being set in stone and how some are likely overdone) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well if it happens at least it will be easy to name, Weather Channel not withstanding. The Great Election Day Storm of 2012. OK. Major brain fart. For some reason I moved the election up 1 week. Storm name cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well, the 18z GFS is rolling in and .... ah, hell - who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 That's bad. Unnecessary. I'd say more, but I don't want to go off on a tangent from the weather discussion. "Models Predict Perfect Storm Part II" isn't far off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 Through 66 hours 18z GFS looks a bit faster with Sandy. Interestingly... Pac NW s/w looks a bit stronger. So many moving parts hard to key in on one area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Diurnal showers while PF gets snow and Sable Island 90kt winds? Fun! lol... that's always been in the back of my mind. As it is now, some of these ECM and GGEM solutions are just epic upslope snows for the central Appalachians. I mean tropical moisture, 60kt NW winds at H85 with temps -3C.... the orographic assist with these stacked, cut-off deep lows is phenomenal. I know its not in our area so no one is mentioning it (cpick has a few times), but the snow potential somewhere in the Appalachians from WV through PA could lead to some massive amounts. You're getting synoptic moisture mixed with meso-scale orographic forcing on west/northwest winds...some of these model runs have been destroying the mountains of western Maryland, central PA, and WV. But yes, if this does end up in the Canadian maritimes, that is a climo favored location for heavy NW flow upslope precipitation here. I do know I will probably receive threats of banishment though if that is how this all shakes out after all the SNE hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 "Models Predict Perfect Storm Part II" isn't far off Ha, I was just thinking that - how about PSII - what are we up to on PD's , like 5. Why not have Perfect Storm II, III....etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 The technical weather discussion was not on the news page and certainly not on the home page. (discussions since yesterday have had several disclaimers about forecasts changing, not being set in stone and how some are likely overdone) I'd argue posting a 180 hour Euro 850mb wind forecast for a TD is pretty much all hype with no value to anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I'd argue posting a 180 hour Euro 850mb wind forecast for a TD is pretty much all hype with no value to anyone. True, about 90% of the posts at American Weather since the weekend are all hype and have no value to anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Looks like this run will come even closer to a capture. We'll see soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Looks like this run will come even closer to a capture. We'll see soon. Pretty soon it will be full on agreement all at once and the fever pitch in here will get so big that people's PC's and mobile devices just start smoking and shaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 That 2nd s/w may finally pull it off this run with Sandy closer to the coast. If not it will be much closer. Maybe we'll get all of the models on board for a few days, create mass hysteria, and then the s/w enters the raob network and the models suddenly become unimpressed. Weenies get left looking like Charlie Brown ready to finally kick the football Lucy is holding. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not me in VT Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Wow, I pick a bad week to quit drinking. On a serious note can anyone suggest web sites without hype to get better information other than HPC and here,Thank you, still new to this and I did quit drinking this week. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Tip gets sassy during big storm threats. I like it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Pretty soon it will be full on agreement all at once and the fever pitch in here will get so big that people's PC's and mobile devices just start smoking and shaking. 40/70 will get fired from his job.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Ha, I was just thinking that - how about PSII - what are we up to on PD's , like 5. Why not have Perfect Storm II, III....etc Better than Athena.. ~Snet form a deivce that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Still too far east, I'd like to see the ridge a little better out west. Sort of fast flow. The pattern is still baby steps better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Swing and a miss thru 132. Looked more promising early on, but the GFS has a ways to go to make it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Still too far east, I'd like to see the ridge a little better out west. Sort of fast flow. The pattern is still baby steps better. GFS still trying to get Sandy to produce a "baby low" via the vorticity exchange between Sandy and the NATL low... despite the further distance between the two on this run. This isn't helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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