andyhb Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 the mean looks stronger and further west to me. that elongation at 144 hrs suggests maybe some landfalls in s nj Ala the 12z GGEM yesterday I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The Euro's inland winds are (surprisingly to me) benign with a 936mb monster modeled over E LI. There will be strong winds I'm sure but generally the strongest will be SE of the center and with the SE direction gales NE of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Not very fast moving either. It really cuts off that 500 trough so it can just sit and spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I tend to think so - we are beyond 144 hours on this thing. beyond 144 hours - repeat - beyond 144 hours - Yes, as D' and I were just discussing, this system/event probably has some resistance to the standard perturbation model of the atmosphere do to it's association to larger than normal parameters. Still, at more than 6 days we got time to iron out a curve ball or two. I suspect that we will coalesce upon or near LI in time ... then relay into Dec, 21, 2012 apparently - I suspect, as you have opined, that climo. at this lead has a diminished value than it otherwise would, if for not only the persistence of the op Euro., but the grossly anomolous progged synoptic setup that is generally agreed upon but the model suites. Get Sandy north of Cuba, and then start pushing the panic button! Good luck up that way John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It really cuts off that 500 trough so it can just sit and spin. Yeah, going nowhere fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 the inland flooding would be catastrophic if the euro was right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I kinda miss Noreaster27's analysis on this....maybe he has changed his mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I suspect, as you have opined, that climo. at this lead has a diminished value than it otherwise would, if for not only the persistence of the op Euro., but the grossly anomolous progged synoptic setup that is generally agreed upon but the model suites. Get Sandy north of Cuba, and then start pushing the panic button! Good luck up that way John. eh heh, yeah, good luck. Honestly, ... are we going to have to go through with this thing? the novelty of it wears out for me real fast when i can't make toast - i wish i had the 2nd home in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well ensembles guidance and the pattern of the op runs certainly suggest a heightened risk. That's about all you can say 156hrs out. No need to run to home depot quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I kinda miss Noreaster27's analysis on this....maybe he has changed his mind... "Analysis" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 "Analysis" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It's hard but fascinating to imagine that this years October storm may relegate last years to a footnote in many places. In places that didn't get hit perhaps, but you could say that about any storm. Euro could verify verbatim and the octobomb would still be more anomalous for much of the interior. That said it's true that it would make for one hell of an anniversary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well ensembles guidance and the pattern of the op runs certainly suggest a heightened risk. That's about all you can say 156hrs out. No need to run to home depot quite yet. Something tells me Kev is already in the town center handing out free bottles of water and batteries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Something tells me Kev is already in the town center handing out free bottles of water and batteries. He's a seasonal employee at Home Depot now, handing out plywood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I kinda miss Noreaster27's analysis on this....maybe he has changed his mind... Much like I did with Hurricane Irene I agree with him to a minor extent....this thing is going to be grossly overhyped even if it did pan out as shown right now for most areas....the areas under the gun will be those seeing E-SE winds on the north to northeast side of where the system were to back ashore....there is no way anyone on the west side of this is going to see hurricane conditions, much like nobody on the west side of Irene did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 "The second and explosively deepening phase of EC1 occurred as the cyclone coupled with an upper-tropospheric PV disturbance (PVD) over the eastern North Atlantic." The dynamic interplay of Sandy in the form of infusing all that tropical latent heat into height falls of the closing trough is an O.D. of steroids, and there are plenty of examples in the annals that outline what can happen when this occurs. To mention, if this thing secludes core warm parcels with lower to middle tropospheric structuring, there will be hell to pay. HELL, to pay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Much like I did with Hurricane Irene I agree with him to a minor extent....this thing is going to be grossly overhyped even if it did pan out as shown right now for most areas....the areas under the gun will be those seeing E-SE winds on the north to northeast side of where the system were to back ashore....there is no way anyone on the west side of this is going to see hurricane conditions, much like nobody on the west side of Irene did. I will be on the east side... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Something tells me Kev is already in the town center handing out free bottles of water and batteries. 5 posts per day for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I will be on the east side... Whereever that side is I agree could be very bad because of that remarkable gradient that may setup between the western NATL and ern Canada high like 12/92 or 3/2010...right now anywhere from about Atlantic City through to coastal Maine could be that location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 This is not Irene. Irene was falling apart when it came up here. Even if this storm only drops to say 950 or 955 mb, it will be intensifying as it moves nearby so I am not sure I agree with you if this storm pans out that there wont be hurricane force gusts on the west side. Much like I did with Hurricane Irene I agree with him to a minor extent....this thing is going to be grossly overhyped even if it did pan out as shown right now for most areas....the areas under the gun will be those seeing E-SE winds on the north to northeast side of where the system were to back ashore....there is no way anyone on the west side of this is going to see hurricane conditions, much like nobody on the west side of Irene did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Top story on ch 5 is this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 they got Harvey Leonard - they pretty much wouldn't have rolled with that story if it didn't get a kind (wink wink) okay by the boss - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Sultan will be violently angry that Cisco said the full moon was a coincidence with this potential system. Will you are still getting it wrong after all these years. I understand like solar eventually you will come out of the box textbook you were educated in. 38 78 92 93 11 hike. OFTEN A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN HISTORICAL EVENTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 "Peter Judge, a spokesman for the Massachusetts Emergency Management, said they did receive a call alerting them to the storm's potential." Read more: http://www.wcvb.com/weather/Weather-Service-alerts-planners-to-prepare-for-Perfect-Storm/-/9850416/17082568/-/110mfs0/-/index.html#ixzz2A9u7HBxK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Matt Noyes mentioning that for most people, nothing to do but watch for several days. For some Marine interests it's time for action already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 What did the 12z GGEM do? That's been carrying the ball lately. Just catching up to speed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 What did the 12z GGEM do? That's been carrying the ball lately. Just catching up to speed... OMG, dude you are behond - hahahahaha. ugh - GGEM: decided to whiff Euro: Kite's Kevin to Barrow Alaska take your pick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 some pretty crazy solutions out there still. would certainly make a for a wild time out here. kind of sits in the back of the mind though...wonder if the gradual later in the game capture and NNW motion we have seen the last few days (and maybe factoring in some model biases of a too progressive / not deep enough gfs trough eventually being corrected with the system coming west some and euro-based products maybe playing to their too amped aloft problems some) a sign that this ultimately gets booted seaward from the SE US/Bahamas region, before there's a late hook N into nova scotia or thereabouts? hopefully not. i welcome wind. and destruction. lots of time regardless so will be an active several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 some pretty crazy solutions out there still. would certainly make a for a wild time out here. kind of sits in the back of the mind though...wonder if the gradual later in the game capture and NNW motion we have seen the last few days (and maybe factoring in some model biases of a too progressive / not deep enough gfs trough eventually being corrected with the system coming west some and euro-based products maybe playing to their too amped aloft problems some) a sign that this ultimately gets booted seaward from the SE US/Bahamas region, before there's a late hook N into nova scotia or thereabouts? hopefully not. i welcome wind. and destruction. lots of time regardless so will be an active several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 OMG, dude you are behond - hahahahaha. ugh - GGEM: decided to whiff Euro: Kite's Kevin to Barrow Alaska take your pick lol... yeah I gathered the ECMWF was a big hit based on the last page of posts. Didn't see anything on the GGEM. Not on my home computer or I would've just looked it up. Fun to speculate, but still not getting too into this until we are like 4 days out if its still there. Who knows, by tomorrow afternoon all models could be showing a fish storm while the public is in a tizzy over a monster model storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.