ORH_wxman Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Sultan will be violently angry that Cisco said the full moon was a coincidence with this potential system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 just nudge this a little bit SW Wrong forum. I want it to hook right into Ray's hoopty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 When things keep changing, yet the results remain strikingly similar every run, then you know something is up. This doesn't seem to be sensitive to perturbations to nearly the same degree as most setups are. Doesn't mean there is no sensitivity, of course. But this isn't some model fantasy anymore. Yeah, a few of us have been commenting on this phenomenon in this thread and others around, how bigger events in nature tend to show up earlier, and persist, in model output. The thinking there is that their physical presence hums a bit louder than the din of daily stochastics - as you say, more resistant to perturbations. I like that - It's interesting. 1993 did this. A few others, too, both the Cleveland Super bomb of Jan26-27, and the Feb 6 deal along the New England Coast of '78... and others. These showed up pretty early and stuck. Things can still go wrong obviously, the continuity is for so early is pretty awesome. I once saw an event classification by degree of anomaly study - should this go on to do a Euro scenario, one must wonder - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 So HPC is going with the Euro...that is an impressive final discussion there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Sultan will be violently angry that Cisco said the full moon was a coincidence with this potential system. Don't be mad at me, but I sent you a text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It does bring in a ton of warm air, but it's possible a narrow area above 1500ft would get smoked in that setup. Euro snow maps sometimes are weenie-ish. temps are more marginal this run compared to the last. It would be only significant at elevation according to this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Yeah, a few of us have been commenting on this phenomenon in this thread and others around, how bigger events in nature tend to show up earlier, and persist, in model output. The thinking there is that their physical presence hums a bit louder than the din of daily stochastics - as you say, more resistant to perturbations. I like that - It's interesting. 1993 did this. A few others, too, both the Cleveland Super bomb of Jan26-27, and the Feb 6 deal along the New England Coast of '78... and others. These showed up pretty early and stuck. Things can still go wrong obviously, the continuity is for so early is pretty awesome. I once saw an event classification by degree of anomaly study - should this go on to do a Euro scenario, one must wonder - Well said. The big events often have huge anomalous large scale features (such as blocking) that are not nearly as sensitive to very small nuances as a lot of other weather patterns are. So when a model sees that feature as a dominating factor, it will tend to show the extreme scenario more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Sultan will be violently angry that Cisco said the full moon was a coincidence with this potential system. Rats, I thought this storm was a result of the full moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Maybe Irene type winds around here? Hopefully not Irene-type rains. Still lots of reminders of those in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Good read by Lundberg at Accwx-favors a hit on LI or North Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 FYI. 1938 lowest pressure was 944 mb and we know how that turned out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Rats, I thought this storm was a result of the full moon. Ah ahahaha oh dear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Maybe I'd be able to mix down a 35-40mph gust. The Euro's inland winds are (surprisingly to me) benign with a 936mb monster modeled over E LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Good read by Lundberg at Accwx-favors a hit on LI or North Jersey Of course they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 O boy, this is nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Rats, I thought this storm was a result of the full moon. Is that a derecho??! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 FWIW....JMA went with the GGEM....so the Euro lost two lightweights, and picked up the GFS ensemble mean......a wash???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Kinda weird to see 925mb get down to 5dm. Again... I cannot stress it enough that a storm surge potential flood into lower Manhattan needs to be addressed. I believe based on the current indications that's quite warranted. Fork' is right - just slightly SW and we got a big problem there. We may already though, if this stalls on the Island and retrogrades W. Also Narr. Bay is in trouble with this sort of solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I've been laughing this storm off the past two days...but obviously the chances of some sort of direct impact to SNE are becoming a better possibility it seems with each run. Gotta love the EC...verbatim a 50-55kt storm landfalling around Montauk then making a second landfall in CT somewhere between BDR and Old Saybrook. Kinda makes me want to run out and buy a generator. Here is this AM's 12z Run of NOGAPS. From Valid for 00z Sunday & 12z next Monday..its surface pressure and wind with 850 temps and qpf. BTW total qpf from NGP for Saturday thru Monday period (144 hrs) for ENY and WNE in the 5-8 rainge. I would imagine much higher amts across uplope areas especially of the Berkshires and probably the Catksills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Euro ensembles bring the low near Chatham at D7. Might be some spread west based on MSLP contours. Not to different from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 FWIW....JMA went with the GGEM....so the Euro lost two lightweights, and picked up the GFS ensemble mean......a wash???? I think the GGEM's ridiculously fast speed might be affecting its model output. It does get captured at 144 hours, but it's already way north at that point. I'm just not sure its speed is realistic. Perhaps if it were a bit slower, it would have gotten captured at a further south latitude and still been a hit... Though previous solutions were also pretty fast and still showed a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 EC ens mean got down to a bit <980mb and the mean track passing somewhere around the Cape. There's probably some members west of the op as well based on the 6hr QPF comparison between the op and ens that I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 FWIW....JMA went with the GGEM....so the Euro lost two lightweights, and picked up the GFS ensemble mean......a wash???? I tend to think so - we are beyond 144 hours on this thing. beyond 144 hours - repeat - beyond 144 hours - Yes, as D' and I were just discussing, this system/event probably has some resistance to the standard perturbation model of the atmosphere do to it's association to larger than normal parameters. Still, at more than 6 days we got time to iron out a curve ball or two. I suspect that we will coalesce upon or near LI in time ... then relay into Dec, 21, 2012 apparently - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Again... I cannot stress it enough that a storm surge potential flood into lower Manhattan needs to be addressed. I believe based on the current indications that's quite warranted. Fork' is right - just slightly SW and we got a big problem there. We may already though, if this stalls on the Island and retrogrades W. Also Buzzard's Bay is in trouble with this sort of solution Narragansett Bay? (sorry for IMMBY (in my mom's backyard)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Euro ensembles bring the low near Chatham at D7. Might be some spread west based on MSLP contours. Not to different from 00z. Nice. That is huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 EC ens mean got down to a bit <980mb and the mean track passing somewhere around the Cape. There's probably some members west of the op as well based on the 6hr QPF comparison between the op and ens that I see. Not very fast moving either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Narragansett Bay? (sorry for IMMBY (in my mom's backyard)) Oh, my bad - that's what I mean. Not sure where B came from - heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Oh, my bad - that's what I mean. Not sure where B came from - heh oh, crap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 the mean looks stronger and further west to me. that elongation at 144 hrs suggests maybe some landfalls in s nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Oh, my bad - that's what I mean. Not sure where B came from - heh Buzzards Bay would have issues too. Maybe not as devastating as Narragansett, but still bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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